Preview: UFC Fight Night 224 Prelims

Lightweights

Chris Duncan (10-1) vs. Yanal Ashmoz (7-0)
Odds: Duncan (-140), Ashmoz (+120)

Duncan's last few years have been a bit of a rollercoaster, but everything worked out in the end for the Scotsman. His initial fight on the Contender Series in 2021 was scrapped on late notice, and the ensuing shuffle nearly resulted in an outright call-up but instead ended up in a booking against Viacheslav Borshchev, who wound up knocking out Duncan and earning a contract himself. One win later, Duncan found himself back on the Contender Series last August and made good on the opportunity with a chaotic win over Charlie Campbell, which in turn led to his long-awaited UFC debut this past March. Thanks to some camp changes, Duncan might be hitting his stride in terms of effectiveness, if not overall excitement; while most of his career saw him slug things out and worry about the rest later, his debut win over Omar Morales saw him willing to lean on his physicality and some wrestling in an effective change of pace. If nothing else, that should help improve Duncan's longevity, and he gets another solid chance to show proof of concept here against Ashmoz. Israel's Ashmoz was signed outright and debuted on the same March card as Duncan; prior to that, Ashmoz looked like a solidly built fighter with a decent pressure game, but far from a sure bet to find success against a higher level of competition, which made it a bit of a shock when he immediately nuked highly touted Brit Sam Patterson. It was Ashmoz's most dominant performance in a good while; even with his undefeated record, "Red Fox" tended to find success outlasting opponents in fights where both men had their moments. It could signal him hitting a new level of his own, which does make this a fun litmus test for both fighters. Duncan reads as more physical, so while he's also the more potentially flammable of the two, the lean is that the Scotsman can grind out an ugly win if this winds up as these two mashing into each other. The pick is Duncan via decision.

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