Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Barnett vs Nelson’

---

Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:

***

Legend

BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.

Advertisement

CAN’T MISS: My pick for “Fight of the Night,” though not necessarily the kind of slobberknocker that usually earns that honor. Whether technical masterpiece or mutually assured destruction, this bout should be well worth the price of admission.

LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.

SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was always going to win, does the victor still have free will?

SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.

***

CAN’T MISS: Kikuno vs. Brandao. Limitations are what make fights competitive, and both Kikuno and Brandao are as limited as they are dangerous. Whether it is Brandao losing his head and getting sucked into a brawl or Kikuno letting the Brazilian crack him on the chin over and over, this fight is guaranteed to be a messy good time.

SMOKE BREAK: Hein vs. Kasuya. Neither Hein nor Kasuya are destined for big things at lightweight, and both are so evenly matched in the grappling department that a submission finish for either man seems highly unlikely; that means we are probably in for 15 minutes of OK-ish kickboxing. Unless you are a big fan of Diese Kaminskis, Hein’s German sitcom, you should be fine to sit this one out.

LIVE DOG: Roop. At +185, Roop is a tempting pick in a fight that could be much closer than the odds suggest. Mizugaki has been the perfect gatekeeper at 135 pounds for years, but not all things can last forever. At 31, we should not necessarily be expecting a huge athletic decline from Mizugaki, but he has competed for 10 years and banked a lot of rounds in the process, many of them hard-fought. Roop is fragile, but he is also a potent finisher in his own right, and Mizugaki is currently riding a two-fight losing streak, both via finish. I am still inclined to favor Mizugaki, but if there is anyone more underrated at bantamweight than the former WEC title contender, it is Roop.

SURE THING: Mousasi. Unlike many others in the MMA community, I do not expect Mousasi to crush Hall utterly. Hall has been improving steadily since his precipitous fall from grace after losing to Kelvin Gastelum at “The Ultimate Fighter 17” Finale. Hall throws more volume than ever before and feeds his opponents a steady diet of low and body kicks in addition to his solid offensive boxing game. However, I cannot see a path to victory for Hall at all. Mousasi is essentially a better version of Hall, lacking his fondness for extravagant strikes but with an overall more judicious approach. At -405 there is not much value on a straight Mousasi pick, but you can find some nice prop bets to sweeten the deal. My suggestion: -150 on the fight to pass the midway point or -130 for Mousasi to win by decision. Say what you will about Hall, but he is not an easy man to put away.

BEST VALUE: The aforementioned Mousasi props are the most valuable I can see on the card. Considering Mousasi’s finish rate, I would say the fight is more likely to pass the midway point than it is to reach the final bell, but a quick finish seems very unlikely.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he's not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment, and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.