Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Cyborg vs. Lansberg’

Lightweights

Gilbert Burns (12-1) vs. Michel Prazeres (20-2): Burns and Prazeres are two decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts with dicey relationships with the standup aspect of MMA. That is not to say that both men are useless on the feet. Prazeres is a keen counterpuncher with heavy hands and kicks, but he lacks mobility and tends to plant his feet whenever he throws. Burns is a technical striker but often seems uncomfortable exchanging punches. Both men showed improvement in their last fights, however, with Prazeres stalking and easily outstriking J.C. Cottrell and Burns staggering the underrated Lukasz Sajewski on the feet before taking his arm home as a souvenir. Burns is the more mobile striker, and that should help him set up his takedowns while avoiding the strikes and takedowns of his counterpart; and though Prazeres’ fire-hydrant frame makes him a solid wrestler and an awkward weight in top position, Burns is the more dynamic and dangerous submission artist from just about every position. The pick is Burns by unanimous decision.

Bantamweights

Rani Yahya (22-8) vs. Michinori Tanaka (11-1): Yahya notched a big win when he submitted prospect Matthew Lopez in July, and now the veteran makes a quick turnaround to take on another talented youngster. Unlike many of his fellow Japanese fighters, Tanaka spends a great deal of time training with Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, California, and though that camp has its problems, Tanaka does exhibit the powerful striking and devilish ground transitions for which Urijah Faber and crew are known. Tanaka is more experienced than Lopez and has recently gained valuable seasoning in a couple of close fights. The big, obvious movements that make Team Alpha Male fighters somewhat predictable are present in Tanaka’s game, but that should not be much of a problem against Yahya, who is almost entirely limited to wrestling and submission grappling as far as offense is concerned. If Yahya does get another crafty submission win, it will happen in the third round, where Tanaka’s suspect gas tank starts to run dry. Up to that point, however, he will be outstruck and outwrestled, and Tanaka should be clever enough to avoid tapping. The pick is Tanaka by unanimous decision.

Flyweights

Jussier da Silva (18-4) vs. Dustin Ortiz (15-5): Flyweight may lack numbers, but the depth of talent in the division’s top 15 is remarkable. Da Silva is one of the absolute best, possessing a tremendous submission game and the wrestling to back it up. His striking has undergone a recent transformation, as well, though his tendency to wait and counter can lead him to give away rounds when an opportunity for fight-changing offense fails to arise. That was a particular problem in da Silva’s fight with Henry Cejudo, who also managed to nullify his offense by constantly clinching him. Ortiz could do something similar, with an awkward, high-volume boxing style and a scramble-heavy wrestling game. Ortiz is also a slow starter, however, and an upright, available target when he strikes. “Formiga” will be able to hit him in the early exchanges, and his world-class grappling should allow him to nullify Ortiz on the ground, just as Wilson Reis did in January. The pick is da Silva by close unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Erick Silva (18-7) vs. Luan Chagas (14-1-1): Silva may be baby-faced, but he is no prospect. The 32-year-old is as finished as finished products come, and he is very likely nearing the end of his career. That does not make him a walkover for any fighter, however. Silva always has one round of deadly explosion in him, and his brilliant sprint grappling has led him to victory over such talented grapplers as Josh Koscheck, Jason High and Charlie Brenneman. Chagas is an interesting matchup for Silva, whose best performances have always come against straightforward wrestlers. Chagas is anything but that, relying heavily on his rangy kicking game to punish opponents at distance. Silva could use one of those kicks to take down Chagas, but “Tarzan” was smart enough on the floor to avoid the submissions of Sergio Moraes, and he will not run headfirst into Silva’s submission game at any point. Silva may just be too slow and too prone to gassing to beat a young gunslinger at this point in his career. The pick is Chagas by second-round TKO.

Lightweights

Alan Patrick Silva Alves (13-1) vs. Stevie Ray (19-5): What a thrilling matchup of powerful southpaws. Ray has been on fire since making his UFC debut, knocking out two opponents and dominating Mickael Lebout in the space of six months. He has not fought since October 2015, having pulled out of his last scheduled fight citing visa issues, so it is good to see him back in action. He faces a tough test in Alves, whose awkward and well-rounded skills make him a difficult out for all but the best in the division. Alves made things about as difficult as they could possibly be in his last fight, grappling for three rounds with submission specialist Damien Brown. In doing so, he proved how powerful he is shooting takedowns and working from top position. That is his biggest edge against Ray, whose powerful counterstriking is most likely a match for Alves’ lunging kickboxing game. Ray has not beaten a wrestler yet in the UFC, however, and four of his five losses have come by submission. It is possible and indeed very likely that Ray has sharpened up his ground game in his time at the Tristar Gym, but we will not know how well he does on the ground until we see it. The pick is Alves by unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Vicente Luque (9-5-1) vs. Hector Urbina (17-9-1): Luque possesses an unglamorous record, but he has performed quite well in the UFC since losing his debut to Michael Graves, showing off a better understanding of distance and an ever-dangerous submission game. Like Luque, Urbina specializes in chokes from the front headlock, but the foundation upon which that skill is built is shaky. Urbina is nominally a wrestler, but he has missed every takedown he has attempted in his two-fight UFC career and given up eight takedowns in return, defending only 38 percent of his opponent’s shots. Luque may not seek to take down Urbina, but he can likely counter his attempts with submission threats, and his striking is much smoother and more natural at range. The pick is Luque by second-round submission.

Lightweights

Glaico Franca (13-4) vs. Gregor Gillespie (7-0): Gillespie faces a tough test in his UFC debut. Franca may be a short-notice replacement, but he has a good amount of MMA experience, smooth striking and a better grappling game than any of Gillespie’s first seven opponents. Gillespie is a true talent, however. An NCAA Division I wrestling champion, Gillespie has been flawless in his MMA career thus far. He fights the way you would expect a decorated wrestler to fight, waiting out things on the feet before shooting an explosive double-leg and driving his opponent to the mat. To his credit, Gillespie’s submission grappling skills seem very sharp, and he has threatened numerous submissions before ultimately choosing to beat up his stifled opponent from top position. Franca wilted badly when he was pressured by James Vick, and Gillespie will put an even greater amount of pressure on him. Gillespie by unanimous decision is the pick.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.