Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Overeem vs. Arlovski’

Lightweights

Rustam Khabilov (19-3) vs. Chris Wade (11-1): Though he does not throw very much, Khabilov is a sharp boxer. He works behind a stiff jab, mixing hard overhands and uppercuts after it, moving with surprising acuity all the while. Of course, Khabilov is known for his suplexes and he is extremely crafty when it comes to finding his way to the back. Often, he will set up a double- or single-leg with his punches and then quickly skirt around to a rear waist cinch when the opponent defends. Wade will not be easy to beat, however, especially on short notice. He is a quick and precise striker, much like Khabilov, though less powerful. Wade’s wrestling, however, is even more nuanced. He possesses an excellent reactive double and the chain wrestling to finish it in any number of ways. Out-positioning Khabilov on the ground is a tall order but it has been done, and I expect Wade to do it again. The pick is Wade by unanimous decision.

Middleweights

Magnus Cedenblad (13-4) vs. Garreth McLellan (13-3): What happened to Cedenblad? “Jycken” put together a phenomenal three-fight winning streak in 2013-14, but it has now been a year and a half since his last UFC appearance. Fortunately for the Swede, he makes his return against a less-proven class of fighter than the kind of men he was beating before, though McLellan is certainly gritty enough to take advantage of any lingering ring rust. Many of the problems that led McLellan to be taken down repeatedly in his UFC debut were still present in his last fight, but an improved focus on scrambling and a serious mean streak saw him batter heavy favorite Bubba Bush for a third-round TKO. Cedenblad’s sticky clinch game and aggressive grappling should be enough to prevent that from happening. Cedenblad wins by second-round submission.

Lightweights

Josh Emmett (9-0) vs. Jon Tuck (9-2): Emmett replaces German national judo champion Nick Hein on short notice. The Team Alpha Male product will have his hands full with Tuck, a rapidly improving prospect and champion in his own grappling discipline. Tuck has a constantly deepening set of tools on the feet, ranging from front kicks and shift-punches to high kicks hidden beautifully behind the threat of his hands. A West Coast Fighting Championship titleholder who wrestled collegiately at Menlo College in California, Emmett has won all nine of his fights as a professional, including a third-round technical knockout against three-time Octagon veteran Christos Giagos in his most recent outing. Tuck’s volume should allow him to control the exchanges. Figure in his beguiling groundwork, and Emmett will have a tough time choosing where this fight takes place. The pick is Tuck by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Yan Cabral (12-2) vs. Reza Madadi (13-4): Two relentless grapplers meet in this lightweight contest. Both Cabral and Madadi strike with a reckless abandon that is perhaps not warranted by their levels of striking skill. Neither is particularly prone to throw combinations, though both will attack if they sense the momentum shift in their favor. Of course, grappling is the strength of both these fighters. Madadi has a strong Greco-Roman and freestyle wrestling background, and he happily shifts between clinch takedowns and single-legs in order to bring down his opponent. Despite lacking the wrestling background, however, Cabral is more than capable of holding his own in the clinch and has some takedown craft there, as well. On the ground, Cabral is the more dangerous fighter, with an aggressive submission and sweep game from just about every position. Cabral is one of the few fighters capable of working esoteric positions, such as deep half and inverted guard, in the context of MMA. This one should be tight, but Cabral’s positional savvy on the floor is the most notable advantage for either fighter. High-octane jiu-jitsu will carry the Brazilian to a unanimous decision.

Flyweights

Kyoji Horiguchi (16-2) vs. Neil Seery (16-11): Horiguchi may have fallen far short of the mark in his title bout with Demetrious Johnson, but he easily reassured us of his contender status in his comfortable comeback win over perennial tough out Chico Camus. Seery’s record may lack even Camus’ shine, but he is every bit as game an opponent and an interesting test for Japan’s best UFC prospect. Like Camus, Seery relies heavily on a grimy and surprisingly crafty boxing game. Seery is not an exceptional cage-cutter, but he makes up for this with volume and an array of awkward, circular punches. His right hook is particularly dangerous. Horiguchi employs a lot of lateral movement and unpredictable leaping attacks, but if he slows down, as he has in the past, Seery will be able to punish him late. The Irishman likes to answer fire with fire and grows stronger as the fight carries on. Horiguchi can expect hard counters and increased aggression with every strike he lands. Wrestling will be the ace up Horiguchi’s sleeve; look for him to blend takedowns with his long-range striking as a way to blunt Seery’s pressure. The pick is Horiguchi by hard-fought unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Leon Edwards (10-3) vs. Dominic Waters (9-4): An all-rounder meets a dangerous specialist in this intriguing welterweight matchup. Roberts comes in as a late replacement for Peter Sobotta, but the switch could be just as precarious for Waters despite his full camp. Edwards is a dangerous striker, light on his feet with a potent blend of power and accuracy. Since the southpaw began working with American Kickboxing Academy, his wrestling has improved by leaps and bounds, as well. It still was not enough to get Edwards over against top prospect Kamaru Usman in December, but Waters lacks Usman’s grappling skill. Waters does share Usman’s imposing physicality, however. He is strong and, if not particularly fast, uses a tight shell-like defense and sharp timing to find counter opportunities. With that being said, Waters’ best hope of winning this fight lies on the ground and up against the fence. Unless Edwards’ stamina is not up to par, Waters will struggle to control him the way Usman did. Edwards wins by TKO in round three.

Flyweights

Yuta Sasaki (18-3-2) vs. Willie Gates (12-6): “Ulka” Sasaki steps in on short notice to face Gates after Patrick Holohan announced his unexpected retirement less than two weeks before the fight date. Sasaki will have a tough opponent on his hands in Gates, a fighter who has struggled with the problem of overperforming against middling competition and underperformning at the elite level. Gates is well-rounded and aggressive, with five wins by KO or TKO and four by submission. He tends to play fast and loose with his technique, sometimes sacrificing balance for speed and power, but he is a capable combination puncher and pretty comfortable in every phase, especially in the early rounds. Sasaki is no less aggressive but much stiffer on the feet. His scramble-heavy ground game is his strong suit, but Sasaki lacks the wrestling and the cage control to get this fight onto the floor in the early rounds, and his lack of heavy top control means Gates will stand a good chance of escaping even if he does. Even without his usual reach advantage, Gates is just too smooth on the feet for the Japanese submission specialist, especially on such short notice. The pick is Gates by first-round TKO.