Opinion: Bantamweights Tell Us MMA’s Future

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Editor’s note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.

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I wrote a few months ago about high-skill versus low-skill weight classes. So vast is the difference in ability between heavyweights and bantamweights that Cory Sandhagen, a top contender but never a champion at 135 pounds, is far more skilled than a prime Stipe Miocic, a man widely considered the second greatest heavyweight of all-time. Today, we will expand on this concept. Bantamweight is perhaps the most skilled weight class in mixed martial arts, which means the level of fighting is better and more evolved. Since the level of fighting in MMA becomes better and more evolved over time, it means that observing the bantamweight elite can literally tell us the future of the sport. What trends we can expect? What kind of styles will dominate at the championship level? You get the idea.

There is plenty of precedent for this approach. In the late 2000s, Dominick Cruz dazzled the MMA world with his superb footwork and constant stance switches. No one had ever seen anything like it. Nowadays, many top fighters throughout all the weight classes switch stances effectively and have excellent footwork. One of them, Ciryl Gane, is a heavyweight. What can we expect to see in the future MMA elite based on the current bantamweights? Three main insights spring to mind:

1. More Nurmagomedov-level grappling geniuses who can submit other great grapplers.

It’s one thing to merely be a great grappler. Traditionally, another great or even good grappler could nullify that skill. Thus, when Khabib Nurmagomedov became so superlatively skilled that he dominated and finished other fantastic grapplers, it was seen as an aberration. Even with current lightweight king Islam Makhachev displaying similar ability with his submission of great Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners in Thiago Moises and Charles Oliveira, it was seen as exceptionally rare and perhaps only limited to certain Dagestani savants. As it turns out, that’s not the case. Look no further than the current Ultimate Fighting Championship bantamweight titleholder Aljamain Sterling and top Bellator MMA contender Patrick Mix. Both men have jaw-dropping submission grappling that has redefined what I believed was possible in MMA in the same way that Nurmagomedov did some years earlier. Both guys are so disgustingly great that they’re able to tap opponents with fantastic, highly technical submission grappling of their own. James Gallagher is a great submission artist, with nine of his 11 wins coming by submission. Mix tapped him. Kyoji Horiguchi has really good wrestling and was dominating Bellator champion Sergio Pettis with it, no easy feat, before being victimized in Sherdog’s “Knockout of the Year” in 2021. Mix dominated him for five straight rounds with grappling. Most recently, Mix faced world-class Dagestani grappler Magomed Magomedov, who is 1-1 against Petr Yan. Mix tapped him, too. Similarly, Sterling has brutalized and dominated great grapplers in Brett Johns, Cody Stamann, Jimmie Rivera, Pedro Munhoz and T.J. Dillashaw. Perhaps most impressively, he took less than 90 seconds to tap Sandhagen—a fine wrestler and fantastic Brazilian jiu-jitsu player. The standard thinking before was that such opponents were simply too good at grappling and there was no advantage to be had there, resulting in a striking battle. Nurmagomedov proved that wrong, and now Sterling and Mix are proving that it’s not a glitch in the Matrix but the future of MMA.

2. A limit to the success of a heavily boxing-centric striking style.

There are plenty of elite contenders and even champions at other weight classes whose striking style primarily involves boxing. However, that era is likely ending in the coming years. That’s a bit sad for me personally as a former amateur boxer who has a deep love for the Sweet Science. Consider the example of Yadong Song. His style overwhelmingly depends on boxing, with his stance and reliance on classic punches, with only the occasional kick. He is genuinely great at it, having steadily improved during his time in the UFC. What happened when he faced Sandhagen’s more advanced, complex striking style—one that incorporated kicks and even knees and elbows better? He was thoroughly defeated. Even if Song’s already great boxing became slightly better, would he be able to beat Sandhagen’s striking? No. Thus, we can expect to see more interesting, unique striking styles. Whether it’s Yan’s constant, perfect stance switching and combining huge kicks with monstrous punches or Sterling’s unique blend of takedown threat and close-range muay thai to the terror or Sandhagen’s eight-point striking from range or Pettis’ superbly slick kickboxing, it won’t be a classic boxing approach. Curiously, two all-time great champions at other weight classes who still use a boxing-centric approach, Kamaru Usman and Glover Teixeira, lost their titles this year and are older, at 35 and 43 years of age, respectively.

3. The increasing importance of cardio.

It’s easier to have good cardio as a bantamweight than as a larger fighter. However, virtually every good bantamweight now has really good cardio, even by the standards of the weight class, which isn’t the case elsewhere. This is a relatively recent phenomenon. Consider Marlon Moraes, a man who fought for the UFC bantamweight championship as recently as 2019 and was then a significant favorite against Henry Cejudo. Currently, he has lost five fights in a row, all by knockout, and one of the main culprits has been his horrendous cardio. A perfect example was when he faced Merab Dvalishvili, who has perhaps the best cardio in the entire sport. Moraes soundly beat Dvalishvili early on, hurting him badly and very nearly knocking him out. However, Dvalishvili survived, and with Moraes out of energy, it was the Georgian who forced the referee to intervene and stop the punishment. The importance of cardio at bantamweight and in future top MMA fighters shouldn’t surprise us. Fighters are becoming so skilled in every facet of fighting that it’s very difficult to demonstrate an advantage so significant in just five minutes that it makes up for having inferior cardio for the next 10 to 20 minutes—if the fight gets that far. Top contenders will likely have to be able to fight at a high level for the full 25 minutes, without being able to take it easy near the end. We’ve already seen three championship examples of this dynamic in 2022, as Alex Pereira knocked out Adesanya, Leon Edwards stopped Usman and Jiri Prochazka tapped Teixeira, all in Round 5. By contrast, don’t expect to be seeing something like Darren Till-Dricus Du Plessis in the future.

Hopefully, this look into a crystal ball has given you an idea of what MMA has in store for us in the future. Personally, I’m excited by what I see.