Opinion: Disappointing Rematches and Why They Happen

Editor’s note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.

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Last year, I wrote an article hyping up a scintillating showdown between then Patricio “Pitbull” Freire, at the time a two-division Bellator MMA champ, and the undefeated kid dynamite and possible future GOAT A.J. McKee. While some scoffed at my description, their clash didn't prove me a liar. With a sensational head kick followed by a lightning-quick, tight guillotine, McKee defeated Freire and ascended his promised throne. Even those who rarely give fighters outside of the Ultimate Fighting Championship credit had to admit that McKee was one of the pound-for-pound best in the sport and possibly the world's finest featherweight.

I wasn't writing articles when their rematch was announced, but I was far less enthused about it. I saw the potential for a dry, disappointing fight. Alas, my worst fears came true and the sequel was underwhelming. Freire fought an exceptionally smart, disciplined fight to regain his crown, but few were highly impressed at what often looked like a mere sparring match.

Rematch disappointment isn't confined to Bellator, however. The co-main event of UFC 274 featured a long-awaited second fight between reigning strawweight champion Rose Namajunas and Carla Esparza. Esparza had stopped Namajunas all the way back in 2014 to become the promotion's first 115-pound champion, but a lot had changed since. Strawweight itself had become by far the most talent-rich division for female fighters, and “Thug Rose,” while lacking the physical dominance of other champions, could well be the most technically skilled and well-rounded woman we've witnessed yet in MMA. Not to be outdone, Esparza had also shown tremendous growth since their first confrontation. Not only had her main strength of grappling improved greatly, but her stand-up, which she barely possessed at all in 2014, had made huge strides, especially her defense and movement. It was certainly an intriguing battle between striker and grappler.

What we got was so dull that it made McKee-Freire 2 look like a fight of the year contender. It was one of the most ruthlessly boring championship encounters in UFC history, as both martial artists stood, stared, moved around the cage, and once in a great while, threw punches at the air and clinched up.

On the surface, those two rematches appear very different. One was an immediate rematch that happened less than a year than the first fight, while the other had a distance of eight years. McKee was a big favorite, while Esparza was a very live underdog many were picking. McKee was the champion and favorite after dismantling Freire in less than 2 minutes the first time around, while Esparza was the challenger despite stopping Namajunas in their initial meeting. Yet, the reason for both fights being disappointments is similar. We will look at each in detail and draw some generalized conclusions.

For the Bellator featherweight championship rematch, McKee was absolutely suffering from overconfidence. And why shouldn't he? He had smashed through every major challenge of his career, beyond anyone's wildest expectations in each case, and had obliterated Freire the last time they had faced off. He had every reason to believe that he was a superlative, untouchable young champion, as he had made virtually everyone watching his fights believe the same. That resulted in McKee waiting and waiting for an opening to explode and produce another highlight-reel finish. When the opportunity didn't present itself, he was stuck firing one-twos, many of them sloppy. This approach still would have worked against many foes due to McKee's disgusting, dizzying level of talent, but not against Patricio Freire, a man who embodies all the highest principles of the martial arts and is one of the smartest fighters to ever live. For 25 minutes, Freire gave McKee no such openings, walking a tightrope the whole way through. Freire's defense was iron-clad, and when he felt safe, the Brazilian punished McKee with kicks and the occasional punch. It wasn't riveting, but it was the only possible way for Freire to triumph. Expecting to win decisively the way he had originally, McKee was not ready for a long, cerebral, grinding fight and ended up losing the narrow decision.

With Esparza-Namajunas 2, the explanation is even simpler. The two fighters were at a perfect stalemate. Esparza knew that she stood little chance in the striking and had to keep her distance, moving while looking for an opportunity to get a takedown. Namajunas, while a much better wrestler than in their first fight, is susceptible to being taken down and struggles to get back to her feet. Thus, she sought to keep the distance and touch Esparza from range, which ended up being very difficult against someone moving as energetically and being as defensively sound as “The Cookie Monster.” Hence, neither fighter wished to risk matters and engage, as doing so would give a distinct advantage to her foe.

What is the common theme running throughout these two affairs? It's simply a major increase in the intelligence and professionalism at the elite levels of the sport, the latter a subject we've discussed before. Top fighters today are just too good, have too few weaknesses, and are too smart, crafting clever game plans and executing them with discipline and care for 15 or 25 minutes. Freire had given McKee a brief opening in the first fight, which the latter exploited in brilliant fashion. That wasn't going to happen again, and with Freire learning from the defeat, McKee faced a tough, protracted battle even if he had come better prepared. Meanwhile, Esparza was the peskiest type of challenger for Namajunas, a dangerous grappler with very sound defense and movement, excellent cardio, and no major flaws to her game. Namajunas’ memory of being badly outgrappled and tapped with a rear-naked choke in the first fight certainly didn't help matters.

This wasn't always the case. In the past, fighters would triumph over their opponents because of a major advantage that would still be present in the rematch. Even elite fighters had gaping holes to their game and would often fight in the manner that was neither smart nor disciplined. If you want an example, check out Rich Franklin’s two fights with Evan Tanner. That's no longer the case for top fighters, and oftentimes, the window of opportunity in the first fight is thoroughly sealed up by the time of the rematch. Unfortunately, that means more disappointing rematches in our future!