Postal Connections: Conor’s Chances

There was a solid response for this first edition of Postal Connections. Readers have inquired on a number of subjects, both printable and otherwise, but I have picked a few of the more topical questions to answer in this inaugural mailbag. They range from Conor McGregor and Benson Henderson to weight cutting and rankings:

What chances do you give Conor McGregor to beat Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 196? UFC President Dana White has said he doesn’t see how McGregor can win. Do you think the UFC wants McGregor to lose because he is getting bigger than the UFC? -- Eddie, Houston

There have been rumblings that McGregor and his antics have become, let’s say, a bit tiresome for some of the brass at the Ultimate Fighting Championship, but when you’re the undisputed number one draw in the MMA world and potentially the entire combat sports universe, you’re going to be afforded a lot more leeway than anyone else. I can see how a company that has put the power of its brand above everything else would want to keep the status quo, but it’s also looking at a virtual money-printing machine in McGregor.

It makes for a strange relationship with a dynamic we really haven’t seen before. The discourse between the fighter and the promotion is certainly unique. McGregor does what McGregor wants to do with no thought on how it will play with his promotional “partners,” and there are zero repercussions, at least publicly. Lesser fighters would be drawn and quartered, err, blasted and cut for some of the things he has said and done. At the end of the day, McGregor is responsible for a huge chunk of the pay-per-view revenue and heightened interest the UFC garnered in 2015, and I’m sure the company expects even more from him this year. He gets the extra leash because he has earned the extra leash.

As for his fight with dos Anjos, my brain tells me the same thing it did before he fought both Chad Mendes and Jose Aldo: This is the guy who is going to end the hype train. We all saw how those fights played out, right?

I’m having a hard time picking against the Irishman at this point. He has done everything he has said he was going to do, backed up his bravado and been an absolute showman along the way. Honestly, I’m not as worried about the size difference as some, as McGregor is a pretty big guy and carries his weight on a sturdy frame. I worry more about the wrestling chops and his ability to keep dos Anjos out of top position over the course of a potential 25-minute fight. If he can make this a standup battle, I like his chances.

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What are your thoughts on the new CSAC weight-cutting regulations, which ban dehydration for fighters? -- Jay Pettry

First off, for anyone who hasn’t gotten up to speed on the movement by the California State Athletic Commission in regards to weight cutting and dehydration, do yourself a favor and check out Marc Raimondi’s piece at MMAFighting.com. He does a great job of breaking down the new plans and explaining how things will theoretically work.

As for my opinion, I’m a bit of a pragmatist when it comes to athletic commissions and their operations. I think this is a great idea in theory, but I wonder just how far California is going to get unless other commissions and the bigger promotions get onboard with the idea.

I hate to be so skeptical, but I’ve been around the sport long enough to know that change doesn’t usually come without a little blood being spilled, literally and figuratively. I expect some pushback from some of the smaller commissions when this is rolled out at the Association of Boxing Commissions’ meeting this summer. This will be a very time-consuming enterprise, and in states where they just don’t have the manpower, I can’t imagine it being warmly embraced.

From the promoters’ standpoint, how do you think they’ll feel if they have title fights turned to non-title fights and main events scrapped from the top of their cards due to weight-cutting issues? It happens from time to time now and would be a much more frequent problem should this become the law of the land, at least in the near term. Like any other new system there will be growing pains, but hopefully fighters would understand the new process and adapt. I’m just not sure the promoters are going to be good with the negative impact in the interim.

If we can set aside the unpredictability, the cost and the extra time associated with implementing this program, I think it would be a good thing for everyone involved, especially the fighters. If they’re able to fight at a more natural weight, I think their performances will be enhanced and they won’t have the undue long-term health effects related to the massive weight cuts and dehydration they put themselves though before each and every fight. I’m hopeful this plan can be instituted in a fair and thoughtful way, and I hope the promoters and fighters who are key to its success can get behind it. Otherwise, I’m afraid it will be dead on arrival.

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Can you speak on how guys are allowed to fight with strep throat, mono, broken ribs, etc.? In Sage Northcutt’s case, he literally went into the cage with a virus that he could have transmitted to his opponent. -- Al Preston

This is a question for athletic commission doctors. All fighters go through a pre-fight medical checkup before they hit the scales for weigh-ins, and you would think there might be some instances where an illness could be cause for a fight cancelation.

Northcutt was ill in the days leading up to the fight and was reportedly taken to the hospital and given medication to try to help get him over the infection. At that point, I’d say the weight falls upon him and his team to make the decision to either withdraw or continue with the fight. I know White has blamed himself for allowing Northcutt to fight, but his team has to have his best interests at heart; and if there was any indication he wouldn’t be able to compete at least close to his best, then it should have yanked him from the fight.

The contagiousness of his illness is another story. Let’s face it, strep throat, while not the most enjoyable thing to catch, is not the end of the world. I’d guess most fighters when put to the test would decide to fight if they felt up to it. You have to remember this is their livelihood here. They make tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars, some of them millions, and when you weigh the pros and cons, a cold, a sore throat or even strep is not going to keep some of the toughest guys on the planet from showing up to work.

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With Benson Henderson in the fold, Bellator has picked me up for sure. I quit watching Bellator when they let Ben Askren walk away. I still think they suck for letting one of the best pound-for-pound fighters go because he just smashed out people on the ground. Perfect record, guys. Anyway, let’s get some top 10 guys back and get rid of the old-boys parade. Please, I don’t want guys as old as me fighting; we’re just not as bad as we used to be. It’s a kids’ game. They heal. We don’t. -- Thomas McMackin

Henderson’s addition to Bellator MMA is a nice get for the number two promotion. He will bring some added legitimacy to the welterweight and lightweight divisions, should he decide to fight in both. He’s a heck of a fighter who was still a top-five lightweight when he made the jump to 170 pounds, and he could very well make a run at being a two-division champion in Bellator.

I was also disappointed in Bellator for letting Askren go. He gave the promotion’s welterweight division a boost with his undefeated record and witty trash talk. Hopefully, he’ll finds some high-end guys to fight over in Asia or head back stateside soon so we can see him compete against the sport’s elite before he gets too long in the tooth.

You also mentioned the “Old-Boy’s Parade.” I’m not a fan of this, either, but I do understand the strategy. No matter how unappealing a fight between a 49-year-old Royce Gracie and a 52-year-old Ken Shamrock may be to us, it will bring in viewers who will see some of the young up-and-coming talent Bellator has on the card.

This Trojan Horse plan has been utilized quite a few times and is generally a good way to get people to see your product. Add in the even bigger freak show of “Kimbo Slice” vs. “Dada 5000,” and this will probably be one of the more watched Bellator cards in quite some time.

I’m with you, though. I could do without the circus. If Bellator can snatch a few more top-end free agents, it will be able to move away from some of the spectacle-type matchmaking and focus on better fighters as go-to promotional vehicles.

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Why even have rankings if you corrupt them? Benson Henderson at 15? Come on. That’s terrible.‬ -- CD

I’ve said this time and again: Rankings are the biggest sham in the business. The UFC rankings are no different than Sherdog.com rankings or any other subjective ordering of fighters. The UFC rankings might be a little worse because people actually look at them like they have some sort of meaning.

I took a peek at the panel that votes on UFC rankings when they were going to be used to tier the Reebok payouts, and I was shocked. Honestly, I didn’t know who over half of the voters were. That should tell you all you need to know about those rankings.

On to the good news: When it comes to matchmaking in the UFC, the official rankings have very little to do with who gets what fight. Smartly, the promotion puts its fights together based on a number of factors, of which the ranking plays a very small part. ‬‬‬Style, timing, fan input and health all play bigger roles than rankings in who fights who.

In title fights, I don’t even think the rankings are a consideration at all in most instances. When the promotion needs a headline fight, it will never be beholden to the rankings if it means making a fight that will do less business. The end goal is to make fights people want to see. That’s their job, rankings be damned.

Greg Savage is the executive editor of Sherdog.com and can be reached by email or via Twitter @TheSavageTruth. If you would like to have your question or comment answered in the weekly Postal Connections mailbag, please submit them by Wednesday evening each week.