Preview: UFC 297 ‘Strickland vs. Du Plessis’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship’s first pay-per-view of 2024 offers up a solid main card this Saturday at Scotiabank Arena. The promotion’s return to Toronto after five years features two title fights, neither of which were on anyone’s radar heading into 2023. Sean Strickland, author of one of 2023’s most stunning upsets against Israel Adesanya, defends his middleweight strap against Dricus Du Plessis in the UFC 297 headliner, while Raquel Pennington and Mayra Bueno Silva vie for the bantamweight belt Amanda Nunes vacated in June in the co-main event. Beyond that, it is proving time for two top Canadian prospects. Welterweight Mike Malott looks to keep up his undefeated UFC record against perennial gatekeeper Neil Magny, while middleweight Marc-Andre Barriault attempts to continue a stunning career turnaround against Chris Curtis. Opening things up is a featherweight showcase between fringe contenders Arnold Allen and Movsar Evloev that might be the best-matched fight on the card.

Now to the UFC 297 “Strickland vs. Du Plessis” preview:

UFC Middleweight Championship

#8 P4P | Sean Strickland (28-5, 15-5 UFC) vs. #2 MW | Dricus Du Plessis (20-2, 6-0 UFC)

ODDS: Strickland (-135), du Plessis (+114)

It’s still a bit of a shock that things wound up here, as this middleweight title pairing would’ve been close to unthinkable heading into 2023. Strickland headed into last year coming off the first losing streak of his career, even if he figured to remain relevant as a top-ten middleweight going forward; since a career-threatening motorcycle accident forced him to move up to 185 pounds in 2020, Strickland had carved out a niche as a pressure-heavy boxer that could swamp most opponents in volume. Strickland figured to hit a ceiling at some point, if only because his upright stance left him overly dependent on head movement to keep out of trouble, and the tail end of 2022 seemed to be that ceiling. Strickland marched right into a knockout against Alex Pereira, then struggled to maintain his forward pressure against a hard hitter in Jared Cannonier, losing the final main event of the year via decision. Strickland then quickly got 2023 off on the right foot, stepping on late notice to beat Nassourdine Imavov on the first card of the new year, but there was still a sense that the UFC didn’t see him as much beyond someone to fill spots in Apex main events. In what still remains a baffling move, Strickland’s next fight came in a thrown-together headliner against divisional nonentity Abusupiyan Magomedov. But at least Strickland won that fight handily, putting him in line for the biggest break of his career. The UFC needed an opponent for then-middleweight champ Israel Adesanya to face in Australia, and with a lack of fresh contenders healthy enough to make the date, the promotion looked down the rankings and gave Strickland the call. There were some reasons to think that Strickland’s pressuring style could give Adesanya some issues, but everything still pointed to an eventually one-sided Adesanya win on paper. Strickland instead scored an all-timer of an upset in shockingly easy fashion. Strickland nearly knocked Adesanya out early, and for whatever reason, Adesanya never got back into the fight from there. Strickland had an excellent performance in scouting and outmaneuvering a lot of Adesanya’s techniques, but the then-champ also never steeled himself enough to march forward and get his challenger moving backwards. The end result was Strickland coasting to a clear decision win, and the middleweight title picture getting blown wide open as a result. For his first challenge, Strickland takes on last year’s surprise breakout contender in Du Plessis.

Like Strickland, Du Plessis figured to be a going concern in the middleweight division heading into 2023, but it was also hard to see the South African reaching a new level. “Stillknocks” was an obvious powerhouse of an athlete with a surprising amount of poise and processing ability, but his game was such an aimless mess that he figured to get turned back at the highest tiers of the division. Du Plessis capped off 2022 with a tragicomic victory over Darren Till that saw both men essentially crash into each other without much in the way of answers until Till folded first, and his victory over Derek Brunson to kick off 2023 wasn’t all that different. Du Plessis was once again clearly at a technical deficit but was just able to make enough impactful exchanges happen that Brunson got exhausted in the process. Robert Whittaker, clearly second-best middleweight in the UFC behind Adesanya in the last few years, figured to be the man to finally stop Du Plessis’ success last July, but Du Plessis once again proved undeniable. It wasn’t pretty in the slightest, but Du Plessis’ relentless commitment to brute force overwhelmed yet another opponent, clearly showing that he can make this game work at a championship level. A racially charged post-fight interview with Adesanya made that the obvious next fight to make, but with the UFC’s commitment to its event schedule and Du Plessis too injured to fight on a quick turnaround, Strickland got the nod as the next challenger and things wound up here. This is an oddly fascinating fight if only because both fighters are so clearly flawed; and while it’s hard to look at Du Plessis’ lack of strategy or technique during a lot of his fights, this also seems like the challenger’s fight to lose. Strickland has a clear process, but it only worked so well against Adesanya because the then-champion was willing to concede ground and allow Strickland to keep moving forward. While Strickland is fairly committed to pressure, he’s far from unshakable in his aggression. Cannonier was able to knock him off that track just three fights prior. Du Plessis is such a technical mess that it wouldn’t be a shock if Strickland was able to start off using his preferred approach and jump out to an early lead, but the South African is both durable and oddly clear-headed enough during his fights that he should be able to land on an effective idea at some point over the course of 25 minutes. Once that happens, it’s easy to see Du Plessis selling out on his offense and swarming Strickland for a finish. Strickland needs to fight safe, and it’s just hard to see him accounting for everything that a wildman like Du Plessis can bring to the table, especially since it seems impossible to get Du Plessis to fold in the face of pressure. The pick is du Plessis via second-round knockout.

Jump To »
Strickland vs. Du Plessis
Bueno Silva vs. Pennington
Malott vs. Magny
Curtis vs. Barriault
Evloev vs. Allen
The Prelims