Preview: UFC 313 ‘Pereira vs. Ankalaev’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday will return to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas for UFC 313—a decent pay-per-view bolstered by a particularly interesting main event. Magomed Ankalaev shapes up to be Alex Pereira’s toughest test yet at 205 pounds, and he gets his shot at the light heavyweight champion in the headliner. Beyond that, it’s moving night at lightweight. The co-main event rematch between Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev promises violence, and bouts pitting Jalin Turner against Ignacio Bahamondes and Bobby Green against Mauricio Ruffy have plenty of action potential. Meanwhile, a women’s strawweight clash between former title challenger Amanda Lemos and rising prospect Iasmin Lucindo rounds out the main draw.

Now to the UFC 313 “Pereira vs. Ankalaev” preview:

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship

Alex Pereira (12-2, 9-1 UFC) vs. Magomed Ankalaev (19-1-1, 11-1-1 UFC)

ODDS: Pereira (-115), Ankalaev (-105)

Can Pereira survive what could be his toughest test yet at 205 pounds? It has been less than four years since “Poatan” signed with the UFC and figured to be a short-term curiosity. The clear mission was for Pereira to make his way to a middleweight title fight with former kickboxing rival Israel Adesanya, but his brief mixed martial arts career was enough of a mixed bag that getting there wasn’t a guarantee. Thanks to some smart matchmaking by the UFC—and poor decision making from Sean Strickland—Pereira got enough credible wins to become Adesanya’s top challenger within a year. The result was an excellent two-fight series that saw Pereira stage a comeback and score a late knockout, only for Adesanya to score a comeback knockout of his own in an immediate rematch. With that chapter closed and Pereira now established as somewhat of a star, the Brazilian—who seems to be massive no matter what division he competes in—decided to stop draining himself and ply his trade up at 205 pounds, where he has clearly come into his own. Pereira’s light heavyweight campaign got off to a bit of a rough start, as Jan Blachowicz wrestled him enough to make the Brazilian’s eventual decision win a bit uninspiring, but it was all systems go from there. Pereira knocked out Jiri Prochazka to win the vacant light heavyweight belt a few months later, then spent 2024 as the UFC’s promotional savior, stepping in three times to save a card without a main event and walking away with a knockout. Pereira’s approach does have its flaws, as he’s now definitely on the patient side in terms of picking his spots and has yet to be tested by a wrestler since Blachowicz. However, no light heavyweight has been able to blow his game open just yet.

Ankalaev made his UFC debut in 2018, ahead of which he was marked as an obvious potential champion; and despite his success and current 13-fight unbeaten streak, he has been one of the most frustrating fighters in the promotion during his seven years on the roster. Of course, that unbeaten streak doesn’t include his UFC debut, one of the unlikeliest results in UFC history both in terms of betting lines and how the fight played out. Ankalaev, then at his best as a vicious ground-and-pound artist, was matched up with submission specialist Paul Craig in what figured to be a clear rout. It was exactly that for about 14 minutes and 45 seconds, at which point Craig pulled off a miracle triangle choke that earned a submission with one second left in the fight. The result has seemingly sent Ankalaev into a permanent state of caution, turning him into an overly patient kickboxer who rarely looks to wrestle. It speaks to Ankalaev’s technical skill and physical gifts that his pivot to patience hasn’t cost him. However, after lower-level opposition couldn’t help but get knocked out by Ankalaev, his performances led to some interminable fights against higher-ranked opponents. Fights like his 2022 win over Thiago Santos just turned into staring matches where Ankalaev did just enough against opponents unable to pull the trigger; and his last fight of 2022, a matchup against Blachowicz for the vacant title, was a bit of a disaster. It was the clearest example yet of a fight where Ankalaev just should have wrestled, as he spent three rounds in a fairly even kickboxing match with Blachowicz before finally going for some takedowns and dominating the last two rounds. He even dominated the last round enough to earn a 10-8 scorecard, only to see the first three rounds all narrowly go Blachowicz’s way, resulting in a draw that cost Ankalaev the belt. The UFC seemed to hold the result against the Russian, making him take the long road to another title shot with detours against Johnny Walker and Aleksandar Rakic. To his credit, Ankalaev did his best job yet of mixing in a bit of pressure and aggression to break his opponents down rather than sit on a theoretical lead. The only thing missing, naturally, was any level of consistent wrestling. Ankalaev didn’t wind up needing it in either fight, but it would be nice to know that he still views it as a backup option against a striker as deadly as Pereira. This should start off as a slow-paced striking match where Ankalaev could get a lot of work done but still wind up eating a lot of attritional damage. From there, it’s basically up to Ankalaev if he feels like winning. If he chooses to stick to his striking, he’ll be at constant danger of getting knocked out or could still lose a decision on damage, but if he decides to start wrestling in the second or third round, the fun could be over as far as Pereira’s title reign is concerned. The lean is that Ankalaev still has it in him to fight a smart fight. The pick is Ankalaev via decision.

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Pereira vs. Ankalaev
Fiziev vs. Gaethje
Bahamondes vs. Turner
Lucindo vs. Lemos
Ruffy vs. Green
The Prelims