Prime Picks: Bellator 273 ‘Bader vs. Moldavsky’

Bellator MMA will have a rare Saturday all to itself when it stages a card this weekend and follows in the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s footsteps with a main event to unify the heavyweight championship. The lines are admittedly trim: Three of 11 bouts feature favorites at -800 or above and only three below -200 at the moment. While predictably paltry, play on with a pair of plus-money pointers pertaining to Bellator 273’s main card, providing a particularly palatable prop pick and a pleasantly promising parlay.

Ryan Bader-Valentin Moldavsky Goes to Decision (+115)

All eyes are on “Darth” Bader in his first fight at heavyweight since he jammed his finger into Cheick Kongo’s eye in 2019. The Arizonan has never come in as a particularly huge heavyweight and instead aims for the butter zone around 225-230 pounds as a large light heavyweight that does not cut weight. Not appearing to brick up with extra muscle to clock in higher, a la Frank Mir when he faced Shane Carwin, Bader will be shredded, but the clock is unquestionably ticking. Moldavsky will not come in with a noticeable size advantage or disadvantage, and both men will figure to hit the scales within 10 pounds of one another. This means that styles will clash without concern for physical health leading up to the contest, and that brings with it a fun battle between Division I wrestling and Master of Sport sambo.

The lingering question leading up to this main event is the status of Bader’s chin, having been significantly checked twice in his last three outings. Against Vadim Nemkov in a battle for the light heavyweight strap, the strikes from the Russian showed appreciable damage until a head kick finished off Bader; and Corey Anderson blitzed him in under a minute. As a result of going back up to unify his heavyweight belt after well over two years in another division, Bader ends up facing one of the lightest hitters the heavyweight class has to offer. While Bader does carry his knockout power up in weight, heavier-handed strikers have tried and failed to shake Moldavsky’s as-of-yet unflappable chin.

The Russian interim champion is a grinder to the fullest degree, preferring to make his opponent miserable rather than putting him away. The heavy hands of Timothy Johnson rarely found their target, as Moldavsky came out more technically sound and secured multiple takedowns to win the interim strap. To date, Moldavsky’s only career finishes came in his pro debut, against an 0-0 karateka, over a fighter well below .500 who rides the Full Metal Dojo circuit and in his second Bellator appearance when he faced a hopelessly outmatched 1-0 opponent. Anyone else, beyond a razor-close split decision setback to Amir Aliakbari—an Iranian wrestler hit with enough failed drug tests to rival Josh Barnett—Moldavsky has topped on the scorecards in one-sided fashion. The pace may wane as they try to outgrapple each other, but it does not appear to be the kind of affair that will result in a finish for either man. Bader is not afraid to go into championship rounds, and he could indeed find an advantage should he put Moldavsky on his back or up against the wire for long. This option allows for the heavyweight champion to push back against Father Time and put on one more performance worthy of note, but he will have to be in it for the long haul.

An Accumulation Contemplation

Moldavsky (-255)
Islam Mamedov (-390)
Jaleel Willis (-230)
Total Odds: +151

At this point in the card, we would scour the scene for tasty underdogs, fun plays or something most bettors might have overlooked. In this case, what Bellator does rarely gains the spread seen in any UFC event these days. The lines for a Bellator show—other than a blockbuster, “shout from the rooftops” type of gala event—are limited, with props generally restricted to fights going the distance or one competitor getting a stoppage. With three sizable favorites and one pick-’em on the main card, what better way is there than to combine the favorite and skip the one with even odds to come up with decent value and not a great deal of risk?

In 2021, every single Bellator bout saw betting odds readily available for the first time in company history. While favorites historically saw wild success by hovering in the 80% range, the larger sample size of 199 bouts in the calendar year reduced that rate to a bit over 75%—still higher than that of other measurable promotions like Rizin Fighting Federation, the Professional Fighters League or the UFC. A whopping six Bellator main cards ended with every favored fighter getting his or h er hand raised. When accounting for competitors with higher odds of -200 or above, only 17% of them lost their non-preliminary match, and all three members of this parlay are above that threshold.

Moldavsky’s pick has largely been justified above, even if the choice option is that it goes five full rounds rather than snaring the interim champ by decision at +195. The upside is all on the 29-year-old from Stary Oskol over an aging wrestler making his way up to heavyweight again after three trips at 205 pounds. This same age and wear argument is one that makes Mamedov look like someone who could run Benson Henderson’s losing streak to four fights. The lightweight matchup could go one of two ways: the grappling skills nullify one another and we are treated to three rounds of awkward kickboxing, or it hits the ground and one seriously imposes his will on the other. The ex-UFC lightweight king’s best years are far behind him, and even though Mamedov’s Bellator splash may have resulted in a controversial win over a shared opponent in Brent Primus, he looks to have the strength and composure to frustrate “Smooth” wherever the fight takes them.

Lastly, the welterweight scrap between Willis and Sabah Homasi has the makings of something fun, if not lopsided, as the latter participant can be controlled and shut down if he cannot get his bomb-throwing offense rolling. Outside of an uncalled illegal knee that led to a finish from Harvey Park in 2019, Willis would come in without having been officially stopped with strikes. “The Realist” is slick enough on the feet to play an effective counter game, and he is not remotely afraid to close the distance and drag the fight to the canvas. Look to Willis to crash the pocket, avoid the most lethal of blows sure to come his way and grind out his opponent any way he can to complete this three-fight parlay. With Aiden Lee- Henry Corrales at even money at the moment, the trio of favorites placing this accumulator in plus-money territory makes it worth a swing.