Prime Picks: UFC 270 ‘Ngannou vs. Gane’

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Fans on Saturday will for the first time have to make the decision of whether or not an Ultimate Fighting Championship pay-per-view is worth $75. Topping this top-heavy blockbuster showcase is a pair of title fights, highlighted by the “Baddest Man on the Planet” honors of a heavyweight championship affair. Sitting pretty on the newcomer-packed card are two of the most live underdogs the sport may ever see. When pieced together with a submission rock star and a scrap between promotional debutants that most expect to end in a flash, this UFC 270 edition of Prime Picks has plenty of plus money and a handful of choice lines sprinkled throughout the night.

Francis Ngannou (+130)

It may come as a bit of a shock that one of the most feared knockout artists of all-time is a betting underdog against anyone in the sport, let alone someone who only started training a few years ago. The champion—whose title reign came into dispute for baffling reasons largely attributed to failed contract negotiations—initially opened around -190, only to tumble down to underdog territory as more bettors talked themselves into Ciryl Gane’s ability to nullify his opponents. Power is the ultimate equalizer in this sport, and Ngannou has that to the nth degree, with a one-hitter quitter ability few have ever displayed. Even when the Cameroonian appears akin to a berserker coming in to attack, once he gets in range and sits down on his strikes, he is quite technically sound. As “The Predator” will be the first man to put Gane at a reach disadvantage, he can take advantage of this by catching his former teammate at the end of his strikes, pushing past jabs and distance-keeping kicks to land flush and get the upset.

Now a betting favorite, Gane has impressed since joining the roster in mid-2019, winning seven times over increasingly solid competition before getting a short-notice interim title shot in August 2021. A high volume for a heavyweight coupled with pinpoint accuracy has made him a threat against anyone he has faced, as he can keep an adversary at the end of his long punches and stabbing kicks. Even though “Bon Gamin” turned pro in 2018, his fundamentals are exceptional, and a tool as simple as a jab can work wonders for him to set up everything else. A kickboxer first, Gane’s footwork is quick and effective enough to keep him out of danger, slipping punches and making the strike thrower pay with a counter or peppering him ahead of time with a jab and a push kick with his toes outstretched. It might not provide must-see TV, as his risk-averse approach can be tough to watch, but he has a style that can shut down others. It would not be out of the realm of possibility that he does the same to Ngannou.

Only 10 fights into Gane’s career, there are a few questions that linger. What happens when Gane is struck cleanly for the first time? Can he take one of Ngannou’s power shots? Will he be able to play matador for 25 minutes, as Ngannou lumbers towards him looking for one finishing blow? Is his strategy as effective if he comes in at a reach disadvantage? All these questions loom ahead of a clash with the most dangerous man in the division. To paraphrase Twitter user Mo Nuwwarah, it may be best not to overthink this one. Ngannou is a big man who punches hard, and there is value in the champion as the underdog. Drilling a little deeper, the two outcomes most likely to pan out: Ngannou gets the knockout (+170), or Gane takes home a decision (+255). Pick one accordingly, depending on who you think gets his hand raised.

Deiveson Figueiredo (+155)

In a fair and just world, Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno would be tied 1-1 going into their trilogy, but judge Junichiro Kamijo inexplicably scored the fifth round of their first meeting for Moreno to force it to a draw. Their two bouts could almost not have gone any differently, with Figueiredo meeting his match in the first—a wild competitive battle where he should have gotten the edge despite a point deduction for a low blow in Round 3. In the second, Moreno never let “Daico” get started, outwrestling and outstriking him with ease before submitting him in the third round. Which of these outcomes forecasts how the trilogy match will unfold? If Figueiredo has well and truly figured out his weight cut, he should enter in peak condition with a head full of steam to get his belt back. At decent plus money, he appears to have greater value with a variety of tools at his disposal when compared to “The Assassin Baby.”

Although Moreno’s wrestling helped him take over in the rematch, his jabs gave Figueiredo fits and he never let up on them, even setting the then-champion down to his seat in the first round. A perfect storm of striking and grappling from the Mexican challenger allowed him to overwhelm Figueiredo, but the champion may have been defeated on the scales the day before their meeting. While the skills will do little but improve since their second battle in June 2021, Figueiredo’s condition is crucial for his performance. Appearing to be well within the reasonable threshold of a simple weight cut having retooled his game ahead of the third encounter, an energized and motivated “Deus da Guerra” is a terrifying force that might be the hardest hitter in his weight class. With the moneyline of the Brazilian firmly in the plus territory, no narrowed prop of a finish or decision is necessary, and it is tricky to predict if Figueiredo will manifest a quick finish and become the first man to stop Moreno inside the distance.

Rodolfo Vieira Wins Inside Distance (-110)

Vieira and opponent Wellington Turman will come into their battle with matching 100% takedown defense rates in the UFC. There is no question that both want to get the fight to the ground, and when that happens, the overused adage of “there are levels to this” will rear its head if Turman believes training as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt will keep him afloat. When speaking to Sherdog, Turman expressed that he would prefer to keep the fight standing but had no fear of a ground engagement should it go there. His confidence may be to his detriment, as he may find a better approach would be to consider the floor was lava.

“The Black Belt Hunter” garnered that nickname for a reason, with a comical number of gold medals in jiu-jitsu competition over the years against many of the best names he could possibly encounter. Every one of Vieira’s victories has come by stoppage, and his lone hiccup—a deflating submission loss that followed his gas tank abandoning him—was seemingly in the rearview mirror when he pocketed a third-round win a few months later. It might be too obvious to pick Vieira winning by submission—he would be the first man to tap Turman—with his hands improving to a noticeable degree. No longer is he simply throwing to close the distance and pursue takedowns; he also has opened up opportunities with ground strikes. If he finds himself in an advantageous position in which Turman will not surrender to a submission, Vieira could decide to pound him out and force a stoppage, in the process blowing up a sub-or-bust play.

Jack Della Maddalena-Pete Rodriguez Goes Under 1.5 Rounds (-140)

Of these two welterweights on the prelims, only one has gone the distance as a pro, and Maddalena did so once—in his last fight. Just one has fought to the third round, or the second round, or even beyond the midpoint of the first round. Those honors also go to the Aussie. A much more tested name than his opponent, Maddalena made his way through the Eternal MMA scene with foes who actually wielded winning records. Having reached Dana White’s Contender Series on a nine-fight finish streak, with only two of those lasting more than 7:30, Maddalena will meet his opponent in the middle and throw for the bleachers for as long as he is upright. Both hold quick finishing abilities, and each man has a willingness to brawl it out, which leads to a matchup that does not last long.

One can watch Rodriguez’s entire fight career in the span of 4:37, as he is 4-0 as a pro without much in the way of a test since making his debut in October 2020. Little can be gleaned from “Dead Game,” other than that his big-league call-up might seem exceptionally premature and likely hinged on his availability to step up on short notice to replace Warlley Alves. His ground-and-pound is effective at getting others out of there quickly, and he seems accurate on his feet while he remains upright, but a litany of questions loom. Other than putting his unbeaten record at risk, Rodriguez is playing with house money as a late-notice replacement who comes out with guns blazing. It remains anyone’s guess how Rodriguez performs if the fight goes beyond the opening frame, but he may have the firepower to surprise fight prognosticators. Instead of a more direct line like Maddalena Wins Inside Distance (-150), this play allows for Rodriguez to catch the Australian with his pants down in the early going. One way or another, this fight on paper should not make it beyond the first round.