Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 203 ‘Santos vs. Ankalaev’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship keeps marching right along to wrap up a four-week residency in Las Vegas. This surprisingly stacked Fight Night offering brings several exciting matchups with major divisional implications, but the pickings are unexpectedly scarce. A trio of time-based prop bets and one extremely live underdog will bind together the UFC Fight Night 203 edition of Prime Picks, with a play deeper into plus money than most in recent memory.

Thiago Santos vs. Magomed Ankalaev Goes Over 3.5 Rounds (-110)

Coming into this headliner, Ankalaev is a prohibitive but understandable -550 favorite, given his momentum compared to that of his opponent, former title challenger Santos. Looking nigh-unbeatable on his seven-fight win streak, in which four ended by knockout, the Dagestan native has blended his combat Sambo mastery with heavy hands relative to his division. Across this run, Ankalaev has dropped one consensus round on the scorecards, losing Round 1 against Nikita Krylov at the beginning of 2021 – he won the bout by unanimous decision. Many of the knockouts for Ankalaev at the higher level have materialized when someone pushed the action on him, and his excellent counters sealed the deal. Against a sharp, but growingly tentative, striker like Santos, the fight may not end as quickly as some would hope.

Gone appears to be the berserker that terrified the rungs of the 205-pound category, as Santos has abandoned his “caution to the wind” approach and gone for something more technically sound. Whether due to advancing age with diminishing reflexes, an unwillingness to take one to land a heavier shot, multiple injuries and surgeries on his knees, or something else, Santos has unquestionably pulled his foot off the accelerator in recent memory. A completely forgettable five-round affair against fellow ex-brawler Johnny Walker fully demonstrated his aversion to sitting down on his punches like before, instead occasionally throwing single strikes and settling for long periods of inactivity, and a similarly lackluster performance versus Aleksandar Rakic saw much of the same.

The power may still be there for Santos, but no opponent has so much as rattled Ankalaev on the feet since joining the major league in 2018. Aware that the Russian is a ferocious counterstriker, Santos may be even more reticent to let his hands go, and many a staring contest could ensue in their five-round affair. An additional concern that his one-beaten foe could change levels and drag to the fight to the round may stifle Santos to a disappointing degree. The Brazilian’s chin has never wavered since moving to light heavyweight, although Jack Marshman, of all fighters, stung him when they met back in 2017. The spoiler is that Ankalaev gets tired of the slow, technical kickboxing match and crowds Santos, wrenching him to the mat to pound on him, or otherwise clubbing Santos should “Marreta” back to the wall. This line of Ankalaev by TKO/KO at +125 may not be the worth the squeeze, as Santos’ survivability is solid enough for him to ride out the worst of it and get to the bell. Instead, practically even money at the over of 3.5 rounds may be the better option, as it still allows for a late-round finish and an escape route in the form of decision wins for either man.

Marlon Moraes Wins Inside Distance (+400)

Dating back the last decade, former World Series of Fighting champ Moraes has only suffered defeats against elite-level opposition. A rough stretch of knockout losses allowed the brawling Brazilian to tumble down the rankings, and rightfully so, but this pairing with up-and-comer Yadong Song may be just what he needs to get himself back on track. Despite succumbing to strikes in his last three, the 33-year-old has shown signs of life. Very nearly did Moraes put Merab Dvalishvili away when the two met in September 2021, only to find his gas tank completely betray him as he appeared to punch himself out. The youngster Song may yet be untested when taking on a flamethrower like Moraes, and “Magic” possesses the kind of stopping power on the feet and the canvas alike that he can spring the upset. Should Moraes get his hand raised, it will not likely be on the scorecards, if recent appearances are indicative that his cardio as less than years gone by.

Song pulled off a contentious win over Marlon Vera in mid-2020, snagging a decision that a majority of media scorers awarded the victory to Vera. The three scoring judges were the only opinions that mattered, but at the very least, Song proved he could keep up with a volume striker with heavy punches and kicks alike. It would behoove Moraes to pursue what brought him to the dance, with his kicking arsenal on full display, as he chops his Chinese foe’s legs down and mixes up short but effective combinations. A prolonged engagement will not favor Moraes, as his beard may not be what it once was, although power is the last thing to go for a fighter only 33 years of age but far the elder when it comes to “fight years.” Should one not believe in Moraes any longer, Song winning by stoppage (-105) makes sense, as does sliding in the -215 line for Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision in a parlay.

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Alex Caceres Goes to Decision (-140)

The +200 underdog Caceres finds himself on the longest win streak of his career, albeit over less-than-sensational opposition, and he encounters a far stiffer test in power-punching Yusuff. With just over half of his career wins coming by knockout, his outright one-hitter quitter may be somewhat exaggerated, and he takes on a fighter in Caceres who rarely absorbs strikes cleanly – to wit, Seungwoo Choi did manage to floor Caceres in the latter’s most recent fight, but it was the first time in nearly four years that “Bruce Leeroy” had hit the canvas after taking a punch. Yusuff is a far more composed boxer than anyone Caceres has faced in recent memory, but his last two outings showed possibly exploitable grappling deficiencies that Caceres can explore. While far from the best wrestler in the division, Caceres is an opportunist, and any attempts to ground his opponent will aid in running out the clock.

It took an extremely well-rounded fighter in Arnold Allen to hand Yusuff his first loss since 2017, and his defensively-minded strategy of not letting Yusuff land cleanly while threatening with the takedown early and often worked volumes for him. The mere threat of the takedown took a little sting off of Yusuff’s shots, while Allen threw back and rang his bell with a head kick in the second frame. Caceres can get creative and throw Yusuff off his game, but at times he remains willing to fight his adversary where they are strongest. Due to this, an outright upset call for Caceres may be a step too far, but the option of this fight going to the scorecards appears to be valuable enough as it allows for both men to win, as long as neither records a stoppage. With Yusuff’s outstanding get-up and scrambling abilities, the likelihood for Caceres to lock him down with a rear-naked choke is slim, and Caceres can slip strikes like the best of them and avoid the heaviest of the blows coming towards him. As a result, fans may be treated to a fun back-and-forth clash where judges are forced to weigh in.

Bruno Silva (+158)

Few books hold the extremely narrow prop option that either fighter wins by knockout, and that limited choice at -550 may be best suited as part of a sure-thing accumulator. There is little question as to what will happen between two huge middleweights that combine for 23 knockouts across their 26 victories, and many think that the only concern is to select who they think will notch the stoppage due to strikes. Silva faces off against Alex Pereira, a vaunted kickboxer with a pair of wins in that sport over current champ Israel Adesanya, and “Poatan” proved he can hang in the major leagues by blasting Andreas Michailidis early into the second round in their November fracas. The knockout may have erased the first-round work from Michailidis, in which he forced the ex-Glory standout to bear his weight and fight off multiple takedown tries while clearly losing the first round. Power for power, Pereira possesses true one-shot knockout ability, while Silva can crush with short, brutal bombardments; “Blindado” will have to fight smarter than usual.

The first takedown Silva can secure, presumably against Pereira, will be his first since joining the promotion, but it has not been for lack of trying. Both Wellington Turman and Andrew Sanchez stood him up and turned him around when he attempted to make the fight a horizontal one, but Pereira does not possess the same level of takedown defense. Swarming “Poatan,” making the kickboxer fight off his back foot and backing him towards the fence are all crucial for the former M-1 Global champ to get his hand raised. Advancing recklessly may get Silva punched out by the dangerous left hook from Pereira, but punching his way into his approach can help bridge the gap and make Pereira defend long enough to tie him up or get to his hips and take him for a ride. Based on how hard both men hit, and how little cage experience Pereira holds compared to his opponent, one can take advantage of the plus money on Silva to spoil the “Poatan” party. This line also does not need to be narrowed like the other three prime picks, as this underdog moneyline allows for any sort of result, including a grinding decision where Silva sticks to Pereira like glue and clinch battles him for three rounds.