UFC 185 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Pettis vs. Dos Anjos

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Things have not exactly gone as planned for the Ultimate Fighting Championship in 2015, but despite the plagues of injuries and positive drug tests, the coast appears to be clear leading up to UFC 185 this Saturday at the American Airlines Center in Dallas.

After a surprisingly shaky start in the UFC, Anthony Pettis has since been on a tear, dispatching four straight highly touted opponents in a total of about 15 minutes. The sheer offensive effectiveness of Pettis’ game is unprecedented, knocking out kickboxers and submitting black belts with stunning ease and regularity. The newfound face of Wheaties has shown early signs of all-time greatness.

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Standing in his way is Rafael dos Anjos, who similarly had a rough time in his first UFC fights before hitting his stride. After a pedestrian 4-4 start in the promotion, dos Anjos has strung together an 8-1 run since 2012, only dropping a unanimous decision to top-ranked contender Khabib Nurmagomedov. His devastating knockout victory over former champion Benson Henderson in August justified his cut to the front of the lightweight lineup, and his dominant decision win over one-time title contender Nate Diaz four months later clinched his shot at the title.

In what is arguably the UFC’s toughest division, let us see what the narrative of the numbers can illuminate:

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The Tale of the Tape tells us a few important things. First, Pettis is a slightly taller, rangier fighter than his Brazilian foe, and while he holds only a two-inch advantage in both height and reach, it could be a significant edge given the champion’s striking pedigree. Pettis tends to take the opposite stance of his opponent -- which we will detail in the striking matchup -- so expect him to come out in an orthodox stance come fight time.

Beyond that, Pettis is also a younger fighter with less mileage on his career; the Milwaukee native has fought in less total fights for a shorter amount of Zuffa minutes, and he started three years later than dos Anjos -- on his 20th birthday, no less. To be fair, dos Anjos has not shown any signs of wear thus far, but it is hard to imagine that the punishment that comes with such pronounced tenure will not eventually catch up with him.

While Pettis boasts an off-the-charts finish rate, it has a flipside; if he does not finish his opponent, he runs a high risk of close decisions. He is 2-2 in fights that go the distance, with only one of them -- his World Extreme Cagefighting title fight against Henderson -- a truly clear-cut win. On the other hand, dos Anjos has only really been finished once, in his 2008 UFC debut against Jeremy Stephens. A jaw injury suffered against Clay Guida at UFC 117 notwithstanding, his stubborn resilience could put Pettis in unfamiliar waters.

Other than that, they both hail from premier fight camps brimming with upper-echelon coaches and training partners, making the game planning chess match an intriguing current running through the fight. Let us go to the striking statistics to get a clearer stylistic picture:

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Both men like to stand and bang, so most of the fight will likely take place on the feet. The numbers highlight some key differences in their striking preferences. First, dos Anjos throws more and is less accurate as a result, neither of which is surprising given his aggressive muay Thai style. Pettis, while more creative, is also more patient, orchestrating exchanges and waiting for opportune moments to take his opponent off-guard with unorthodox kicks and blitzing hand speed. Neither man is particularly accurate with his shots.

As far as preferred range, Pettis is primarily a headshot-from-distance kind of guy, with 81 percent of his strikes aimed upstairs and 86 percent coming from distance. He splits the remainder of his shots fairly equitably between body and leg strikes, as well as clinch and ground strikes. Dos Anjos, on the other hand, has a more balanced attack. He aims for the head 76 percent of the time and the body 11 percent, with leg kicks taking up the additional 13 percent of total strike attempts. Meanwhile, he strikes at distance 77 percent of the time, with clinch shots and ground strikes taking up nine percent and 14 percent of his total output, respectively.

A key here is that in five fewer fights Pettis has amassed the same amount of knockdowns as dos Anjos, many of them coming from head and body kicks. This is a huge reason why he takes the opposite stance of his opponent; it frees up his back, power leg to find landing space that cannot be easily checked by his opponents’ lead leg. This is a crux of his style, and the fact that dos Anjos eats about 12 significant strikes a round does not bode well for him.

If the fight hits the ground -- and stays there for reasons other than follow-up strikes -- here is what the numbers dictate:

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Both Pettis and dos Anjos are decorated jiu-jitsu practitioners, with a brown belt and a black belt to their respective names. Their grappling styles could not be more different, though.

The defending champion is not one to initiate takedowns often, which is no surprise given his striking abilities. When he does opt for a takedown -- something he has only done in three fights -- he is generally successful. Dos Anjos rarely goes a fight without trying his hand at taking down his opponent, but his success has been limited: In roughly 30 percent of the fights where he has attempted a takedown, he was unable to secure a single one.

On the ground, the Brazilian stays busier, moving into dominant positions fluidly and mixing submission attempts and ground strikes in a coherent torrent of violence. Where Pettis lacks in activity, he more than compensates in effectiveness. In the seven fights he attempted a submission, he eventually elicited a tap in five of them, often from his guard against highly skilled grapplers. Neither man has truly been submitted. A “submission” loss is officially etched onto dos Anjos’ record but due to a jaw injury he sustained against Guida in a fight that he was en route to winning. That being said, having never been submitted before is little solace against Pettis: Both Shane Roller and Gilbert Melendez could boast the same thing prior to their submission defeats to the Roufusport representative.

Overall, dos Anjos has a more diverse ground game inasmuch as staying active and mixing strikes, passes and submissions together, whereas Pettis is a swift assassin with his cold-blooded, high-percentage submissions.

THE FINAL WORD

A week out from the fight, the incumbent champion was listed as high as a -450 favorite, giving him an 82 percent win probability. The numbers can be read as a justification of this, but dos Anjos should not be slept on. As has been the case in nearly every one of his fights, Pettis holds the striking advantage, but dos Anjos’ aggression, power and technique pose legitimate threats to the champion, and he has more than one path to victory. The problem: Against an offensive wood chipper like Pettis, there is no safe haven in the cage. Does the Rafael Cordeiro protégé have the goods to dethrone the surging dynamo, or will the Wisconsin warlord provide another “How did he do that?” highlight to his ledger?

Data for the analysis was provided by FightMetric. Eric Stinton performed all analysis. Stinton and Sherdog.com assume no responsibility for bets placed on fights, financial or otherwise.