UFC Kansas City Beforemath: Can Max Holloway Overcome a Southpaw?

Max Holloway is back. Now we have to worry about which Holloway it is. He is facing the new blood of the division, once again. This time he’s facing budding U.K. star Arnold Allen. Between the volume Holloway brings and the violence Allen enjoys, this could be a great matchup to separate the wheat from the chaff.

Today we break down the matchup between Holloway and Allen and how it might play out. Our question: How can Allen get past the Holloway challenge?

Holloway: Has Father Time Finally Arrived?

Holloway is a fan favorite fighter with tons of volume and some iconic MMA moments. But his last two fights have seemed off to me a bit. He may have beaten Yair Rodriguez, but the third Alexander Volkanovski fight really showed the shortcomings of late-stage Holloway. He’s been slower, taken more damage and suffered some devastating defeats.

He is still Holloway, though. He’s been to the depths of hell and emerged both victorious and defeated. His experience is that of two MMA fighters. That alone gives him an opportunity to win in almost any fight.

We’ve seen in the past with Allen that he doesn’t do well when put on the back foot, something that is Holloway’s specialty. I look for Holloway to do the usual and make Allen break him to slow down his pressure. Take into account, however, that no matter the fight, Holloway always comes forward. Volkanovski and Dustin Poirier beat Holloway handily and still couldn’t stop him from coming forward. They had to deal with it. Holloway will look to drown Allen in the deep waters of a five-round fight.

Allen is a straight puncher and Holloway is willing to eat a shot to dish two or more. The perfect example of that was Holloway’s career-best performance against Calvin Kattar, which we will be visiting twice today.

Against Kattar, Holloway utilized a multitude of entries to systematically dismantle Kattar. In the figure above, we can see one such example. (1) Kattar looks to slow down Holloway’s advancement and Holloway slips his head to the outside. To counter, (2) Holloway throws a jab of his own and Kattar starts to cover up. Next (3) Holloway doubles up on the jab, except this time to the body, and Kattar (4) goes to parry down the body jab. This opens up the right hand for Holloway which (5) lands clean and snaps Kattar’s head to the side.

With these types of entries, and all the level changes from Holloway, he can mix up the entries to avoid any of the crushing straight shots from Allen. It will be important for Holloway to continue to do so. If he eats too many hard shots early, he won’t be able to come back in the later rounds to take this fight. Winning the earlier rounds will hinge on the defense of Holloway, who must show some semblance of a defense.

With this fight being a five rounder, body work for Holloway will he very important as well. Slowing down the lightning-fast Allen as the fight goes on will keep Holloway in the fight despite his slowing down in the past couple fights. To do that, I am also expecting Holloway to go to the body and legs quite a bit, just another part of Holloway’s game that is part and parcel.

Circling back to that Kattar performance, we see another great entry from Holloway and this time, work to the body. (1) Holloway will enter on Kattar with a jab. There, Kattar brings up his guard and wants to avoid the right. (2) Holloway will oblige him and throw a right hand against the guard as Kattar peeks through. But what Kattar doesn’t see is the left loaded up and ready to rock. (3) Holloway rips to the body and Kattar lowers his elbow, but not in time, as the lead left hand lands clean.

With Allen being a southpaw, the dynamics of this type of attack are a little different, and in Holloway’s favor. To explore this further, let’s look at none other than boxer Ryan Garcia and his knockout of Olympic silver medalist Luke Campbell.

A southpaw facing right hand forward puts the liver right up front, a prime target for orthodox fighters to attack. Above, we see Garcia, an orthodox fighter, doing just that against Campbell the southpaw. (1) Garcia enters the pocket to exchange and needs to get Campbell’s guard high to expose that front side. To do this, he will show a right cross. (2) Campbell will bite and keep his guard up as Garcia loads up on the lead hook. (3) In a quick, swift motion, Garcia lands the lead left hook and Campbell will be sent grimacing to the canvas.

Holloway can take notes from this type of attack and work on the liver of Allen. The liver is specifically vulnerable to a lead left hook against a southpaw and is a brilliant point of attack. It can crush an opponent’s cardio. Holloway is not the heaviest hitter so he will have to accumulate damage there like he did against Dustin Poirier in their second fight. Only then can he slow Allen down and crush him as the fight grows long in the tooth. Holloway is still a damn good fighter and despite slowing down, can still bring the fight with the best of them. Do not overlook Holloway.

Allen: Ascending the Featherweight Ladder

There’s been no featherweight to beat Holloway not named Volkanovski. Since losing his title, both Kattar and Rodriguez have fallen by Holloway’s hand, but Holloway has the division so cornered that Rodriguez was given an interim title shot despite that loss, and just let Josh Emmett bypass Holloway to face off with him. With a win at “UFC Kansas City,” Allen can guarantee himself a title shot at the winner of Alexander Volkanovski and the aforementioned Rodriguez. Easier said than done, however.

The blueprint to beating Holloway was conceptualized by Poirier and perfected by Volkanovski. That path lies through the legs. Allen isn’t a big kicker; even less so when he’s being backed up. When fighters have put significant pressure on Allen and kept him on the back foot, the leg kicks have dropped off to almost a nonexistent level. Against Holloway this will not do. He will have to find a way to bite down on the mouthpiece and crush the legs of Holloway to slow down Holloway’s advancement and mobility to make him more hittable.

Gaining the respect of Holloway is another very important factor in this fight too. Both Volkanovski and Poirier both had to crack Holloway to get him to slow down somewhat—there’s never a chance to slow Holloway down completely. Looking next at the Poirier fight, we can see how this is done.

Poirier is a southpaw but will often step through on his punches into orthodox, Marvin Hagler style. In the figure above, we see Poirier (1) Having already stepped through to orthodox with a overhand left. He will (2) dip down low as to attack the body with the left, and Holloway will want to parry that (very similar to the Kattar diagram from earlier) (3) Poirier fires a lighthearted left jab at the chest, which Holloway drops his left hand for. This (4) Opens up the big overhand right that lands clean on Holloway, buzzing the Hawaiian native and allowing Poirier to take the round.

Now, Allen isn’t a switch hitter like Poirier. He doesn’t really switch from his southpaw stance and won’t be able to pull off trickery like this. But Volkanovski had much success as a southpaw against Holloway with minimal switching. Volkanovski used straight punching to, pun very intended, beat Holloway to the punch. Allen is an exceptional straight puncher with considerable power like Volkanovski. He will have to use the pressure given to him by Holloway to rock off his back foot to land significant strikes standing up.

Against Dan Hooker, Allen did just that. (1) Hooker presses forward and throws a light jab at Allen. This was a mistake and Allen fully intended to punish him for it. He (2) rocks back and steps in with the jab and (3) fires a left cross right behind it. It’s a classic 1-2 combination and it’s something Allen does very well. With Holloway guaranteed to come forward, Allen will have to crack him to back him off, à la Dustin Poirier. If he can do that, he can start to steal the early rounds, and even hurt Holloway. With all the damage he’s taken, that brick wall that is Holloway’s noggin is bound to crack and fall one of these days. Allen just has to be the wrecking ball.

One thing I want Allen to be mindful of in this fight is wildness when he has someone hurt. We saw against Hooker that Allen went into berserk mode and got hurt by a hook. He cannot assume he will be the man to crack Holloway. Taking his time when his opponent is hurt should be something they’ve been working on with Allen and should be a primary focus in this fight.

Should Allen win, he will become the first contender at featherweight to do so since Holloway started his title reign. A win over Holloway, one of the biggest stars in the promotion, would be a major boost to Allen in the U.S. He’s already a big star in his home country, but a win over Holloway will push him internationally. It’s the type of thing that could induce Volkanovski to stay at featherweight and give Allen the fight of his life.