UFC Picks: Spotting the Big Dogs

(Sponsored Content) -- UFC 197 is upon us and here we look at some opportunities that can fatten our bankroll by including value-laden underdogs for our sports picks.

David vs. Goliath

Antiquity and mythology is replete with underdogs rising up and slaying the dragon, giant or grand army of your choice. Achilles was the demi-god that seemingly had no vulnerabilities but then again nobody knew that it was the back of his foot that proved to be his undoing when Paris’ arrow found its mark there. Thus, we have the term Achilles heel and it is notable because it illustrates that everyone has a weakness, even demi-gods.

Fast forward to our modern-day gladiatorial wars that occur inside an eight-sided cage with combatants who are amongst the most feared and respected athletes on the planet. We have had our share of David vs. Goliath moments recently in the UFC and a little homework and due diligence could have ferreted out the weaknesses in some of our own giants who appeared to have no chinks in their armor. Below we will briefly discuss those recent matches and why there should have been cause for pause in laying the huge lumber on these seemingly invincible champions.

Champions Dethroned

The most obvious, and stunning, of these is the women’s bantamweight living legend getting her comeuppance when Ronda Rousey was floored by a preacher’s daughter named Holly Holm. Holm, as even the most causal UFC fan knows, has more belts than Men’s Warehouse in the world of boxing. She was, and is, a female pugilist extraordinaire. I stated in my analysis of the fight that Rousey could only get in trouble if she eschewed her ground game in favor of standing and trading with the devastating puncher. And so it was that ego reared its ugly head and Rousey was out on her feet before she could even attempt to change her game plan and take the fight down to her world which is on the mat. Those who were courageous enough to back Holm had a healthy return in store with sports betting sites giving back as much as +700.

Holly Holm was the newly-minted champion and the darling of the MMA world for about 15 minutes before Miesha Tate, a wrestling savant, got her shot at Holm in her first title defense. I was a big Tate backer in this fight because I knew she would not repeat the same mistakes made by Rousey. A mat technician herself, Tate ultimately took Holm to the ground and submitted her in the fifth round via rear-naked choke. Once again, the giant was slain and the UFC odds makers returned close to 3-1 on the live underdog.

Conor McGregor talked the talk and walked the walk as he devoured the seemingly invincible Jose Aldo in the opening seconds of their championship tilt. Before you could blink McGregor was crowned the UFC’s Featherweight king. But that was not the stunner in question. It was McGregor’s last fight against BJJ prodigy Nate Diaz at 170 pounds that proved to be his undoing. McGregor walked into the Octagon like a conquering hero, undeterred by the 25 pounds he added since his destruction of Aldo.

McGregor had been warned that Diaz was a threat on the mat though he was also a fighter who liked to brawl. McGregor believed Diaz would engage him standing up and he did for a bit but ultimately locked in a rear-naked choke in the second round to vaporize the myth that was Conor McGregor. Those who did their homework understood the increased weight on McGregor as well as Diaz’s mat pedigree could very well make Diaz a live dog and sure enough; he did not disappoint returning as high +400 to his learned investors.

UFC 197 Giant Killers

I am not promoting Ovince St. Preux to upset Jon Jones in this one. Other than JBJ’s cage rust there is little to hang your hat on in terms of OSP’s chances to score a shocker. Does OSP have knockout power? Of course but the litany of KO artists Jones has fought does not place St. Preux as among the most ferocious. He has beaten better men before and will do so again.

Henry Cejudo vs. Demetrious Johnson

Henry Cejudo is your giant slayer ladies and gentlemen. Cejudo is a gold medal wrestler and knows how to defend the very best takedown artists and that will include the champion, Demetrious Johnson. Everyone holds a height and reach advantage over the diminutive champion and Cejudo is no different. But his striking has improved immensely and Johnson’s inability to score takedowns will wear the champ down.

UFC Pick: Henry Cejudo +340 at Heritage.com.

Rafael Natal vs. Robert Whittaker

The UFC odds are dropping on Robert Whittaker and we believe the drop is justified. Rafael Natal has had his hand raised in his last four fights and brings a wealth of experience to the table. While Robert Whittaker possesses immense power and could make this a short night, we believe we have betting odds value in Natal who is currently returning a healthy +250. If Natal can get Whittaker to the mat it could be a whole new ballgame which is why we will include him in our UFC picks.

UFC Pick: Rafael Natal +250 at Bookmaker.com.