Preview: UFC Fight Night 202 ‘Makhachev vs. Green’

Sign up for ESPN+ right here, and you can then stream the UFC, PFL, Dana White’s Contender Series and “The Ultimate Fighter” live on your smart TV, computer, phone, tablet or streaming device via the ESPN app.

UFC Fight Night 202 on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas follows much the same narrative as its predecessor. It does not offer much in the way of immediate stakes outside of the late-notice main event, but it still should generate plenty of action. Bobby Green steps in on a two-week turnaround and attempts to upset Islam Makhachev—a man believed to be an Ultimate Fighting Championship lightweight title challenger in waiting—in a headliner set to be contested at a 160-pound catchweight. It looks like a surprisingly strong replacement for the original marquee attraction, which featured Makhachev against fellow contender Beneil Dariush, and the circumstances make it an even better story. Beyond that, a lightweight clash between rising prospects Arman Tsarukyan and Joel Alvarez represents the clear highlight in terms of relevance, though there does appear to be some guaranteed violence further down the main card. Gregory Rodrigues and promotional newcomer Armen Petrosyan should combine for a middleweight banger, and while their placement on the lineup seems odd, Ji Yeon Kim and Priscila Cachoeira likely have no choice but to throw down.

Now to the UFC Fight Night “Makhachev vs. Green” main card:

Lightweights

#4 LW | Islam Makhachev (21-1, 10-1 UFC) vs. NR | Bobby Green (29-12-1, 10-7-1 UFC)

ODDS: Makhachev (-720), Green (+500)

Even with a late change in opponent, this fight represents an interesting step in Makhachev’s journey towards the UFC’s lightweight championship. A longtime friend and training partner of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev came into the UFC with a rightful amount of hype in 2015, which made it a shock when he lost his undefeated record just two fights into his promotional tenure, suffering a quick knockout loss to Adriano Martins at UFC 192. That result slowed Makhachev’s momentum for a number of years, even though he has been undefeated ever since. Makhachev has not been the most dynamic fighter for much of his career. Never the same level of athlete as Nurmagomedov, Makhachev’s victories have been much more focused on patient control, leading to a lot of workmanlike efforts. Add in some long stretches of inactivity and the UFC being content to keep Makhachev in the middle of the card, and that led to a stretch where he was clearly discussed as one of the top prospects in the sport but never gained any sort of serious traction in terms of moving up the lightweight ladder. That ball finally got rolling a bit in 2019, but Makhachev missed all of 2020 due to injuries. However, 2021 was finally the year that Makhachev announced himself as a contender who was ready to carry on the Nurmagomedov family legacy, particularly with his mentor retiring as lightweight champion. Makhachev’s campaign saw him beat Drew Dober, Thiago Moises and Dan Hooker without going through much adversity, and he even submitted all three in the process; the Hooker win took less than two and a half minutes, showing how quickly Makhachev can run through an opponent on the fringes of title contention. Makhachev is now firmly in the mix for to become the next No. 1 contender at 155 pounds, and the initial fight against Dariush seemed guaranteed to crown the next challenger. However, with Dariush out, Makhachev looks to continue his march towards destiny against a tough late replacement in Green.

Green has been with the UFC since 2013, when the promotion absorbed the entire Strikeforce roster, he and got off to a hot start. Green won his four fights inside the Octagon, and a July 2014 victory over Josh Thomson seemed to firmly have him in the mix as a top lightweight. However, Green capped off his 2014 campaign with a loss to Edson Barboza, and from there, his UFC career seemed absolutely cursed. Due to a combination of injuries and personal tragedies, Green rarely found his way to the cage, and despite his obvious skill, his few fights became exercises in frustration. Green was ahead of the pack in terms of his defensive style, focusing on head movement and countering his opponents in a more subtle fashion than most—something that apparently did not leave much of an impact with judges. Even in fights where Green was cleanly outlanding his opponents, “King” still suffered his share of decision losses, enough so that he even briefly had enough of the sport and retired in 2018. With that backdrop, it was a bit of a shock when Green became one of the breakout stars of 2020. Finally blessed with a string of good health, Green took advantage of the chaos that the pandemic era of matchmaking provided, reliving some of his younger days and taking fights whenever possible. On top of making a name for himself by constantly staying in front of fans, Green finally started getting some respect on the scorecards. While Green also helped his case by focusing more on output in addition to his defensive slickness, it was nice to see his skill finally getting rewarded with three deserved wins in 2020, though he did drop a controversial decision to Moises to close the year. From 2021 on, Green has fought in front of highly appreciative crowds and rewarded them well for their fandom. His UFC 265 bout against Rafael Fiziev was one of the best fights of 2021 and resulted in a close loss, and Green’s last two performances may have been the best of his career. He ran through Al Iaquinta and put on a three-round clinic against Nasrat Haqparast just two weeks ago. Turning around on such a short notice to take on an opponent like Makhachev seems like an insane idea, but credit to Green for striking while the iron is hot; and he may just be able to make his gamble pay off.

Even if Green fails to score a victory, there is a lot to suggest he could at least succeed in making Makhachev look mortal compared to his last few performances. Green’s striking rightfully gets all of the accolades, but he has also historically been a strong wrestler, even though he mostly uses those skills defensively while choosing to get back to making his opponents look foolish on the feet. Green may not be the best outright wrestler or grappler Makhachev has faced in recent years, but he should be able to follow a better strategy than some of those other opponents who tried to meet the sambo practitioner head-on in a wrestling battle and wound up getting overwhelmed in the long run. Since getting knocked out by Martins, Makhachev’s approach has often been marked by patience, as he smartly feels out opponents until he finds the opportunity to press forward for a takedown and start forcing them into bad decisions. That makes for an interesting gambit against Green, who has both the skill to outpoint Makhachev on the feet and may have the speed and slipperiness to either evade or escape his grasp and reset the terms of engagement. At the same time, all-out aggression may not be the smartest choice for Makhachev, particularly if some immediate Green success with his takedown defense emboldens the American or damages the heavy favorite’s confidence. Add in that Green might be the better five-round fighter, particularly at a pace, and this is the type of matchup that could quickly go south—or just be frustratingly even for Makhachev—over the course of 25 minutes if he cannot establish his dominance. There is a lot to suggest Green could score the upset or make this a tossup, but at the end of the day, Makhachev is still the safer bet. While Green has proven nearly impossible to control for most opponents who have chosen to wrestle him, he should at least give Makhachev some opportunities to try; and Makhachev has a level of process to his wrestling and grappling that could succeed where others failed, while also grinding out the clock. While things have been going better for Green with the judges, setbacks like his 2020 loss to Moises still do raise the worry that in a close fight, he will get the benefit of the doubt. Green could cash in on this huge opportunity. At the very least, this hopefully sets the stage for him getting more five-round fights in the future and some additional shine. With that said, the pick is Makhachev via decision.

Continue Reading » Cirkunov vs. Turman