Preview: UFC on ESPN 37 ‘Kattar vs. Emmett’

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Middleweights

Phil Hawes (11-3, 3-1 UFC) vs. Deron Winn (7-2, 2-2 UFC)

ODDS: Hawes (-260), Winn (+210)

Hawes was one of the top prospects in mixed martial arts almost immediately upon his professional debut back in 2014, owing to his elite level of athleticism. However, “Megatron” had to take the long road to the UFC roster. He was one of the favorites to win Season 23 of “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2016 but instead lost his fight to get into the house, and his 2017 bout on the Contender Series saw him fade after a hot start and get knocked out against Julian Marquez. That has been the book on Hawes for most of his career. He is an imposing terror up until the point things start to go wrong, either via his opponent’s efforts or his own exhaustion, at which point he typically gets finished shortly afterwards. Hawes did eventually earn his way onto the UFC roster in a 2020 return to the Contender Series, and after an 18-second knockout of Jacob Malkoun in his UFC debut, he finally showed some signs of progress. Nassourdine Imavov and Kyle Daukaus each survived tough grinds, and while Hawes was hanging on by a thread at the end of the Imavov fight, two straight decision victories against solid opposition was something that seemed unthinkable at any other point in Hawes’ career. That made his November loss to Chris Curtis even more frustrating. Hawes looked to be in his best form yet early on, showing some electric and well-schooled striking—until Curtis was able to clip him with a counter and score a knockout near the end of the first round. Once again, Hawes is left to rebound amid questions about him ever living up to his vast potential, and he looks for a win in an oft-rebooked matchup against Winn. While Winn is an obvious talent as a former standout wrestler, he has some issues with his frame that may be impossible to overcome. A thickly built powerhouse, Winn has trouble making 185 pounds despite, at 5-foot-6, being the height of most bantamweights. That has made a lot of Winn’s fights a struggle. Given his constant size disadvantage, it has been difficult for him to control his opponents, and Winn has had his own cardio issues at times trying to bull around his opponents. Winn could just get annihilated early in a straight striking match, but attempting to outwrestle the Sanford MMA rep—an accomplished wrestler in his own right, though not on Winn’s level—just seems like a recipe towards exhausting himself and still possibly eating a late finish if Hawes can maintain his gas tank at all. This could be ugly, but the pick is Hawes via decision.

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