Preview: UFC 198 ‘Werdum vs. Miocic’

Middleweights

Ronaldo Souza (22-4) vs Vitor Belfort (25-11)

THE MATCHUP: Belfort has gradually pared down his toolkit as he has aged. He has adopted the measured pace and patient outlook of a counterpuncher, and this change has helped him to overcome some of the drawbacks of his former, bullying style. Unfortunately, volume may have been the one thing firmly in Belfort’s favor against “Jacare.”

In most of his wins, Souza has either been the more aggressive fighter with higher output or the more physically imposing grappler. His problem is that he is not a particularly voluminous striker. He is apt to spend one minute pressuring and feinting for every one or two punches thrown. Mechanically, Souza is a powerful and precise boxer who attacks the body and head with equal prejudice.

Belfort is a potent counterpuncher, of course. His ability to rapidly cover distance and land powerful left hands rivals that of Yoel Romero, who knocked down Souza in his last fight. He is also an accurate kicker who uses lateral movement to create the angles for his shots. What he lacks, however, is the wrestling that allowed Romero to deliver his strikes. Provided Souza can work his takedowns -- and he has phenomenal wrestling in addition to his world class Brazilian jiu-jitsu -- Belfort will have less of a good chance and more of a puncher’s chance.

THE ODDS: Souza (-316), Belfort (+259)

THE PICK: Souza does not throw much and does not have flawless defense. He is fairly flat-footed and not particularly fast. However, “Jacare” is an excellent wrestler, and his jiu-jitsu is unparalleled in the middleweight division. His volume and variety tend to improve as the fight goes on. Given a round to warm up, he blends his boxing and wrestling together quite well, while Belfort’s effectiveness trends in the opposite direction. As far as punchers go, Belfort is more dangerous than most, but Souza has all the options in this matchup. The pick is Souza by first-round submission.

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