Preview: UFC 285 ‘Jones vs. Gane’

UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship

#2 P4P | Valentina Shevchenko (23-3, 12-2 UFC) vs. #6 WFLW | Alexa Grasso (15-3, 7-3 UFC)

ODDS: Shevchenko (-600), Grasso (+450)

Shevchenko added another successful title defense to what has been a dominant reign in June, but the narrative seems to slowly be changing as far as her death grip on the flyweight division is concerned. The 125-pound weight class was not an option for “Bullet” upon her UFC debut in 2015, so she instead wound up establishing herself as the best bantamweight on the roster not named Amanda Nunes; and even then, her two losses to the eventual and current champion were both nip-tuck decisions. Those performances, among others, showed the main drawback in Shevchenko’s approach: For all her skill and potential to dominate, she is a patient fighter whose game is designed to punish mistakes, meaning she can sometimes be lured into dreadfully low-volume fights against opponents unwilling to lead. With her cut down to flyweight in 2018, it has rarely mattered. Even while taking her time, Shevchenko has been such a dominant physical force against most of her 125-pound peers that she can find her way to a finish almost through sheer attrition, particularly via the wrestling and clinch work that has quietly been the best part of her game. Shevchenko’s June title defense against Taila Santos seemed to mark the point where her dominance might begin to actually hurt the division. Santos looked like the type of promising talent who was getting rushed into a title fight before it was either commercially or competitively viable, mostly due to a lack of options to keep Shevchenko busy. Instead, what followed was a five-round fight that saw Shevchenko scrape out a win and, most importantly, look mortal in the process. Shevchenko’s physical strength had always been her ace in the hole at 125 pounds, but Santos was her first flyweight opponent to clearly be able to match her in terms of sheer horsepower. Suddenly, there is hope and intrigue coming into Shevchenko’s title defenses, as there is a new generation of young athletes poised to rise up and challenge the flyweight queen. Up next is Grasso.

It took a bit longer than expected, but Grasso has finally become the contender many expected upon her UFC debut. A standout striker and marketable talent, Grasso figured to be a huge part of the UFC’s plans to expand into her native Mexico when she first hit the Octagon in 2016. While Grasso was indeed prominently featured whenever the UFC went south of the border, she had trouble finding consistent success. Early on in her UFC career, the promotion gave her what was assumed to be a showcase fight against Felice Herrig, only for the latter to put in a career-best performance for a win. Grasso still rebounded with the occasional strong performance, but the UFC also surprisingly matched her against stronger wrestlers like Tatiana Suarez and Carla Esparza, who banked on those skills for their own victories. Add in some injury layoffs, and Grasso’s entire 115-pound UFC career saw her essentially remain a promising prospect that never gained much momentum. However, everything changed with a move up to flyweight. She has yet to score a knockout in her UFC career, but Grasso clearly has more power in her new weight class, both as a striker and a wrestler. She tired late in a 2021 win over Maycee Barber, but it was still an impressive sign that she was successfully able to lock horns with one of the strongest fighters in her new division. After running through Joanne Wood about a year ago, Grasso won her first UFC main event over Viviane Araujo in October. It was not a scintillating performance, but it still showed off the complete approach Grasso has put together over the last few years. With the sense that Shevchenko may be entering her post-prime, there is a lot to like about Grasso here. Again, there is more hope than ever that Shevchenko’s opponents can compete with her in a grind, and Grasso is unlikely to have the issues with striking output that may have cost Santos the decision win in her title challenge. However, Shevchenko still gets the nod as the favorite. Even if Grasso can make it tough, the champion still figures to be the stronger fighter in a pure battle of strength, and even if this is rough going early, Shevchenko has shown a lot more in terms of being able to keep up a grind over five rounds. Add in that the trade-off of Grasso’s volume as compared to Santos is additional chances for Shevchenko to land some big counters, and this looks like a fight that could be difficult for the champion while still ending definitively. The pick is Shevchenko via fifth-round stoppage.

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Jones vs. Gane
Shevchenko vs. Grasso
Rakhmonov vs. Neal
Gamrot vs. Turner
Nickal vs. Pickett
The Prelims