Preview: UFC 285 ‘Jones vs. Gane’

Lightweights

#7 LW | Mateusz Gamrot (21-2, 4-2 UFC) vs. #10 LW | Jalin Turner (13-5, 6-2 UFC)

ODDS: Gamrot (-170), Turner (+145)

The UFC’s past is littered with hype trains for failed prospects who offered little past massive size for their divisions, which makes it all the more impressive that Turner has seemingly turned his talents into something worthy of lightweight title contention. A raw and spotty fighter upon getting signed by the UFC in 2018, Turner’s campaign initially slotted into a familiar path. At 6-foot-3 and 155 pounds, “The Tarantula” was able to run over subpar athletes, but Turner struggled against opponents like Vicente Luque and Matt Frevola who could leverage their durability into effective aggression. However, Turner has looked like an absolute terror in his last handful of fights, impressively adding some effective grappling that further leverages his lanky frame. Turner’s current five-fight winning streak has seen every finish take place on the mat, including a 45-second starching of Brad Riddell in July. Only a pro since 2016, Turner looks to be hitting his prime, and at just 27 years old, there is still plenty of room for growth even if he suffers a setback in a tough matchup against Gamrot.

Gamrot was on the opposite end of the seasoning spectrum upon making it to the UFC. “Gamer” was a two-division champion for KSW in his native Poland, and with an undefeated record over an eight-year career, Gamrot was expected to hit the ground running and find himself in title contention in short order. That just made it all the more shocking when Gamrot lost his UFC debut to prospect Guram Kutateladze, as the fellow newcomer matched his pace and made the fight relatively even ahead of a split decision win. Gamrot managed to rebound with a breakout 2021 campaign that marked him clearly among the top dozen or so lightweights on the UFC roster. After a knockout of Scott Holtzman, Gamrot showed off his relentless wrestling game and some power grappling to finish Jeremy Stephens and Diego Ferreira. A subsequent main event spot against Arman Tsarukyan saw Gamrot get the narrow win via his cardio and sheer pace of his wrestling, and while it was a controversial result, it allowed him to get some shots at contender status while still clearly in his prime. Unfortunately, that first step up did not go particularly well. Beneil Dariush put on an excellent performance in shutting down most of Gamrot’s wrestling, once again proving that part of the Pole’s game to be the backbone of any sort of consistent success. Submission win over Stephens aside, Gamrot’s success comes more via weaponized cardio than any sort of finishing ability, so the result here once again hinges on his ability to find takedowns consistently over the course of 15 minutes, which is an open question. Turner’s 2019 loss to Frevola raises some worries in that phase for the American, but he is also clearly a much better fighter in that phase than he was four years ago; and he might have the grappling chops to at least prevent Gamrot from making this a pure grind. Gamrot is likely going to be forced to rinse and repeat takedowns in this one, and the bet is that Turner can eventually find an opening on the feet to land something huge before closing the show. The pick is Turner via second-round knockout.

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Jones vs. Gane
Shevchenko vs. Grasso
Rakhmonov vs. Neal
Gamrot vs. Turner
Nickal vs. Pickett
The Prelims