Preview: UFC 301 ‘Pantoja vs. Erceg’

Bantamweights

#12 BW | Jonathan Martinez (19-4, 10-3 UFC) vs. Jose Aldo (31-8, 13-7 UFC)

ODDS: Martinez (-162), Aldo (+136)

His star power was much needed on this card, so Aldo’s unexpected return was a pleasant surprise when it was announced, even if it does come with a bunch of questions. Aldo’s clearly one of the all-time greats, as he’s part of the featherweight division’s reputation for being at the technical cutting edge of the sport while also adapting to stay near the elite of his weight class for nearly a decade and a half. Initially a whirlwind of violence in charging up the World Extreme Cagefighting ladder, Aldo settled into a defensively mindful style that did an amazing job of taking away his challengers’ tools until the point that they were left absolutely helpless—yet another piece of background that made Conor McGregor’s 13-second unseating of Aldo as featherweight champ all the more amazing. Aldo would wind up back as the 145-pound king in short order once McGregor left the division, only to wind up passing the torch to Max Holloway. Yet there was little concern that Aldo was on any sort of real downswing, given that his only other loss in the division would come against fellow all-time great featherweight Alexander Volkanovski. Aldo had teased a move up to lightweight for years, which made it a shock when he announced a planned cut down to bantamweight in 2019. While Aldo might not look all that great cutting down to 135 pounds cosmetically, the move did little to affect his performance, as he found himself right back in the championship mix with a more boxing-heavy style. After a 2022 loss to Merab Dvalishvili stopped Aldo’s three-fight winning streak, the former featherweight champ surprisingly announced his retirement a few weeks later in what felt like a rare case of someone getting out of mixed martial arts on the early side. However, Aldo ends that sabbatical two years later. It seems likely that this is simply Aldo fighting out his contract to be free and clear to do other things in the combat sports world, but it’ll at least be nice to see him get a big farewell in the hometown he’s so deeply associated with. As for the fight itself, Aldo’s return comes against Martinez in a pairing that apparently even caught the Factory X rep off-guard, as he’s a talented fighter who has yet to build much of a following.

Martinez was more or less an afterthought when the UFC picked him up on late notice in 2018, after which he chugged along as a promising but inconsistent prospect. He could put together highlight-reel stoppages of fighters like Pingyuan Liu and Frankie Saenz, only to turn around and suffer a frustrating loss. However, Martinez has now strung together six straight wins, buoyed by a strong leg kicking game that has always been his signature. Martinez chopped down Cub Swanson and Adrian Yanez in two of his last three fights, and it’s a minor miracle that Vince Morales survived a similar onslaught right before them. Going leg kick for leg kick against Aldo seems like a fool’s errand, but Martinez holds his own in enough areas that a lot of this result will come down to how the Brazilian shows up. A peak form of Aldo has the power and reflexes to put some doubt into Martinez’s mind and coast out a decision victory, but he's taken a two-year layoff at a time when most mortal men start to show some signs of age. With that said, Aldo in Rio de Janeiro should always get the benefit of the doubt. It’s a coinflip, but the pick is Aldo via decision.

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Pantoja vs. Erceg
Martinez vs. Aldo
Petrino vs. Smith
Pereira vs. Potieria
Borralho vs. Craig
The Prelims