Preview: UFC 301 ‘Pantoja vs. Erceg’

UFC 301 has arrived, and it certainly feels like a victim of the post-UFC 300 hangover. This ranks as one of the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s lowest-wattage pay-per-views in recent memory, but at least the top two bouts serve as a homecoming for two of Rio de Janeiro’s top fighters: flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja and all-time great Jose Aldo. However, even if Steve Erceg and Jonathan Martinez each make for interesting opponents, their lack of name value makes this a card only hardcore fans can appreciate. Beyond that, the rest of the main draw features Brazilian talent on the rise. Vitor Petrino and Caio Borralho get compelling tests against Anthony Smith and Paul Craig, while Michel Pereira gets an action-packed potential showcase against Ihor Potieria.

Now to the UFC 301 “Pantoja vs. Erceg” preview:

UFC Flyweight Championship

#10 P4P | Alexandre Pantoja (27-5, 11-3 UFC) vs. #10 FLW | Steve Erceg (12-1, 3-0 UFC)

ODDS: Pantoja (-185), Erceg (+154)

This is a championship pairing that came out of nowhere and is stretched a bit thin as a main event, but it’s nice to see Pantoja get some shine in his hometown after a long, underrated career. When the UFC gathered a bunch of regional champions for Season 24 of “The Ultimate Fighter” back in 2016, Pantoja was the deserved top seed; and while he fell short in the season’s semifinal, Pantoja kept himself relevant as a top-level fighter who doubled as one of the most exciting entrants in the division. Pantoja would try and take his foot off the gas at times, but he was always at his best in an all-out war, combining knockout power with a particularly vicious back take game. While Pantoja consistently proved to be the highlight of the card whenever he showed up, he also had a knack for falling one win short of getting a long-overdue title shot. After a close decision victory over Manel Kape to kick off 2021, blowout victories over Brandon Royval and Alex Perez made Pantoja undeniable as the next contender for the flyweight belt, even if he did have to wait a bit to get his shot at then-champion Brandon Moreno in 2023. It was a familiar pairing—Pantoja had already beaten Moreno on “The Ultimate Fighter” and in a 2018 bout—and the Brazilian came out on top once again in their closest fight to date. It was far from a clear performance from either man, but Pantoja showed the proverbial heart of a champion in the process. It was an exhausting bout, but Pantoja kept gutting through and finding the right strike or the right takedown at the right moment to keep halting Moreno’s momentum and walk away with the win. In contrast, Pantoja’s first title defense was a bit disappointing relative to expectations, at least in terms of the violence that he usually brings to the table. Rematching Royval less than two and a half years removed from their last bout, Pantoja took a decision mostly on the back of a wrestling-heavy approach. It was at least the smart fight given Royval’s danger as a striker, and it once again showed Pantoja’s ability to keep fighting hard through exhaustion. However, it also showed a surprising lack of aggression against an opponent the new champ had already run through once before. A few months prior to UFC 301, it became apparent that Pantoja was likely to headline the card as the lone Brazilian champion who figured to be available, and the expectation was that he would defend against the winner of a February bout between Moreno and Amir Albazi. However, Albazi got injured and Royval stepped in to beat Moreno, so Pantoja was left without an obvious next challenger. Surprisingly, the call went to rising Australian Steve Erceg, who has not built up much of a profile but should at least make for a fun matchup.

Erceg’s about a year removed from signing with the UFC, at which point he was one of Australia’s top prospects. Success wasn’t guaranteed for “Astro Boy” inside the UFC. He didn’t read as much of an athlete and made most of his hay as a submission artist on a scene mostly devoid of standout grapplers. Surprisingly, Erceg showed up in much-improved form immediately upon hitting the Octagon, particularly as a striker. He leaned on his tools on the feet to stay ahead of David Dvorak, and after an uglier win against Alessandro Costa, he did some excellent work ahead of a knockout of Matt Schnell this past March. However, there are some signs that Erceg could struggle here thanks to an athleticism gap, particularly in his fight against Costa. It was a clear Erceg win where he was mostly able to dictate the fight, but Costa did blast him hard at a few points, which could set up a finish if Pantoja pulled the same trick. That gives the much more proven champion the benefit of the doubt, though this is a winnable fight for Erceg if Pantoja shows up in subpar form. The challenger is enough of a grappling threat to force this into an absolute dogfight and has the craft to take things over if Pantoja slows down. Still, the read is that Pantoja’s horsepower allows him to stay ahead of things, even if Erceg could make this a tough fight. The pick is Pantoja via decision.

Continue Reading »
Pantoja vs. Erceg
Martinez vs. Aldo
Petrino vs. Smith
Pereira vs. Potieria
Borralho vs. Craig
The Prelims