Preview: UFC 311 ‘Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2’

UFC Bantamweight Championship

#7 P4P | Merab Dvalishvili (18-4, 11-2 UFC) vs. #2 BW | Umar Nurmagomedov (18-0, 6-0 UFC)

ODDS: Nurmagomedov (-325), Dvalishvili (+265)

The Dvalishvili era starts off with a bang, as the freshly crowned bantamweight champion immediately gets what might be his toughest test on paper. Dvalishvili has looked unstoppable for the better part of his UFC career, which makes it a bit amusing that he started off his time on the roster with two straight losses. Dvalishvili’s wrestling-heavy style allowed Frankie Saenz to squeak out a narrow decision win with some offense, then resulted in his charging into a guillotine choke from Ricky Simon that left him unconscious at the final horn. Once Dvalishvili rebounded and strung together some wins, there was the worry that his approach didn’t result in much damaging offense, but at a certain point, the Georgian became undeniable. Beyond doing a better job of inflicting damage where he can, Dvalishvili has shown an inhuman gas tank that has allowed him to set an eye-popping pace. His five-round win over Petr Yan in 2023 resulted in some unthinkable numbers, as he attempted 49 takedowns and 401 strikes in what wound up as an eventual rout. Despite that performance, Dvalishvili still needed one more win to earn a title shot, overcoming a slow start to outwrestle former Olympic wrestling champion Henry Cejudo, which in turn led him to a championship pairing against Sean O'Malley that was one of the best fights the UFC could book on paper. In practice, it wound up as a forgettable capper to the UFC’s big night at the Sphere. O’Malley’s knockout power and Dvalishvili’s wrestling threat resulted in a cautious fight from both men. Dvalishvili at least fought with a winning game plan, picking his spots and walking away with a clear decision victory. It’s impressive that a specialist like Dvalishvili wound up on top of what might be the UFC’s deepest division, particularly since it’s unclear who will knock him from his perch. Nurmagomedov just might be that guy, especially coming off a career-best performance.

As a cousin of Khabib Nurmagomedov, the challenger’s last name immediately resulted in some hype for him as a prospect upon his UFC debut in 2021. For his part, Nurmagomedov ran over some flawed opposition in the expected fashion—through wrestling and grappling—even as the promotion surprisingly slow-played him a bit, helped in part by a few injury layoffs. On the downside, it left Nurmagomedov in a tough spot by the end of 2023, obviously ready for the jump into potential contention with few takers willing to fight him, enough so that he kicked off 2024 against newcomer Bekzat Almakhan simply to get a fight. However, Cory Sandhagen stepped up to the plate to face the Russian in a main event spot in August, and the result was a master class from the newfound contender. Nurmagomedov’s wrestling only truly became a factor late in the fight as he salted things away, but he most impressively built on the few flashes he had shown as a striker to outwork Sandhagen—who had previously looked like one of the most dynamic strikers in the division—for the better part of five rounds. That performance proves Nurmagomedov is clearly a complete fighter, and with most worries about any weaknesses now firmly out of the way, this pairing against Dvalishvili is mostly a matter of unknowns for the challenger. Sandhagen is an excellent fighter but had a performance notable for the lack of aggression and volume he brought to the table versus his usual standard; admittedly, it was caused in part by Nurmagomedov’s own strong showing. While Nurmagomedov clearly has his own elite wrestling chops, he has yet to face someone who can hold his own on the ground to the level of Dvalishvili, even before factoring in the uniquely high pace the champion brings to the table. Of course, there are also worries on the Dvalishvili side, as he has had the occasional slow start. Plus, he’s coming off two slow-paced performances relative to his high standard, possibly thanks to the wrestling threat of Cejudo and more obviously thanks to the striking threat of O’Malley. It’s unlikely that Nurmagomedov offers a threat in any one area to that level, but given how he was able to settle into dictating things against Sandhagen, it’s probably best for Dvalishvili to get back to a hot start, if only in an attempt to get the challenger thinking. The momentum behind Nurmagomedov is understandable from the pure math standpoint of his being able to potentially match Dvalishvili on the mat while being the sharper striker, but the champion is such a unique test that it’s hard to bank on the challenger keeping up until it actually happens in practice. The pick is Dvalishvili via decision.

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Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov
Hill vs. Prochazka
Moicano vs. Dariush
de Ridder vs. Holland
The Prelims