Preview: UFC Fight Night 142 ‘Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa’

Heavyweights

Mark Hunt (13-13-1) vs. Justin Willis (7-1)

ODDS: Hunt (-120), Willis (+100)

Considering this is the last fight on his UFC contract and he is currently suing the company, this probably marks the end of Hunt’s tenure with the promotion; and it is worth remembering just how unlikely this run was. When the UFC absorbed Hunt’s contract as part of purchasing Pride Fighting Championships, the promotion did not even want him. Hunt was riding a string of losses: Word got out that if you took the 2001 K-1 World Grand Prix winner to the mat, he had little to offer. Once the UFC decided to honor Hunt’s deal, his debut resulted in a quick submission loss to Sean McCorkle, putting the writing distinctly on the wall. Amazingly, Hunt started racking up wins, mostly in brawls at first but eventually showing enough takedown defense to suggest that maybe, just maybe, Hunt could stick as a heavyweight contender; and indeed he did. Hunt never quite got over the hump, but he was a reliable minor star for the UFC over the last few years. His highlight reel of walk-off knockouts and his years of built-up goodwill with the fans meant the UFC could easily headline him on a second-tier card anywhere in the world, particularly in Oceania. Still, the cracks are beginning to show. Hunt has slowly lost the second gear of athleticism that made him truly special, and while his legendary chin has held up fairly well, it now has the ability to be cracked. His last fight -- a quick loss to fellow aging war horse Alexey Oleynik -- was quite concerning, if only because of how easily Hunt was stunned. Oleynik throws looping power shots, so Hunt being hurt was unsurprising, but the Russian connected with relative ease and a hazy “Super Samoan” was taken down and submitted in short order. Whether or not the end of Hunt’s UFC career will also be the end of his MMA career remains to be seen, and this fight against Willis should be a good litmus test to see exactly what Hunt has left in the tank.

Willis has not garnered a ton of hype, but he has progressed nicely over the course of three UFC fights. The most noticeable thing about Willis at first glance is that he is a mountain of a man. His UFC debut was actually delayed due to weight-cutting issues and his trying to make 265 pounds, which seems to be a first as far as the heavyweight division is concerned. As a fighter, Willis seems to be developing a style dependent on countering. At first, this led to a tedious UFC debut against James Mulheron in which Willis was much too reticent to pull the trigger, but in his ensuing bouts, he has done a much better job of picking his spots and hitting opponents with his natural power. He has not been earmarked for stardom quite the way Tai Tuivasa has, but he finds himself in a similar spot as the main-eventer, having proven everything he needs to against the lower reaches of the UFC’s heavyweight division but running the risk of getting pushed into tough fights too soon.

Even a few months ago, the pick would have clearly been Hunt. While obviously diminished from his peak, his combination of veteran kickboxing skills and still-stout durability has traditionally been more than enough to turn back any raw prospects the UFC has sent his way. However, the Oleynik fight sounded too many alarms and was the first sign that Hunt’s chin may have gone from merely diminished to completely cracked. Hunt is still one of the best stand-up artists going at heavyweight, so he should win the balance of the fight, but it feels like he has reached the point where one good punch is enough to cost him the fight. Willis is improving at a rate that suggests he will probably be able to find that punch. There is still a solid chance that Hunt can end his UFC tenure in victory -- he will be the strongest test yet of Willis’ durability -- but the call is that he goes out on his shield. The pick is Willis via first-round knockout.

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