Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Silva vs. Bisping’

Middleweights

Gegard Mousasi (37-6-2) vs Thales Leites (25-5)

THE MATCHUP: His fight with Michael Bisping showed us just how far Leites has come as a striker. Leites does not have the cleanest technique in the world, but he puts together his punches and kicks intelligently, following the right hand with the left hook, using both to disguise the uppercut and slamming home leg kicks that would make Pedro Rizzo proud.

Of course, striking with Mousasi has never been a favorable proposition. Such striking luminaries as Lyoto Machida and Akio “Musashi” Mori have struggled with Mousasi on the feet, and less-polished technicians have often found themselves stuck on the end of his frustrating jab. Mousasi is a capable kicker, and the power in his right hand is definitely underrated. His defense is sound, as well. Mousasi’s awkward bent-back crouch allows him to roll under punches and set up counters.

Wrestling should be a deciding factor in this fight. Since around 2011, Mousasi has shown better and better takedown defense. He struggled and ultimately failed to defend the takedowns of Ronaldo Souza, but the fact that the fight took place in the smaller Octagon was as much an issue as anything else in that bout; and “Jacare” is certainly a better wrestler than Leites. Despite the takedowns, Mousasi’s excellent ground game was on full display in his fight with Souza. Not only did he successfully thwart the progression of one of MMA’s finest guard passers -- initially, at least -- but he even managed to lock up a triangle at one point and constantly threatened the Brazilian jiu-jitsu champ with strikes from his back. Mousasi has also doubled down on his improved wrestling lately, often executing takedowns of his own and banking rounds with his stifling top game.

Leites struggled mightily in his efforts to ground Bisping, only getting “The Count” down once off of a caught kick and failing to keep him down for more than a few seconds thereafter. Bisping’s takedown defense is nothing at which to sneeze, but Leites has repeatedly struggled to ground opponents in the UFC, usually only hitting a takedown in the midst of an exchange, such as when he was sent to his knees by a Tim Boetsch combination. On the ground, Leites is an obvious talent. He is an excellent guard passer, and he often slides directly from side control or half guard into his trademark arm-triangle choke, a maneuver with which he has finished eight opponents.

THE ODDS: Mousasi (-318), Leites (+262)

THE PICK: This is really difficult to call. Wrestling would appear to be the crux of this fight, but Leites has proven to be a challenging matchup even when he fails to ground his opponent. His lack of technical boxing will likely be his downfall, however. Mousasi’s jab has frustrated more than a few aggressive opponents, and his head movement allows him to counter the kind of wide punches that Leites loves to throw. Fears about Mousasi’s chin are likely unfounded, as well. Few men could have withstood the thunderbolt that Uriah Hall planted on his chin in his last fight, and even the perfect flying knee that followed could not put him away completely. It will be a tight one, but Mousasi wins a unanimous decision.

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