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Welterweights

Donald Cerrone (32-7) vs. Jorge Masvidal (31-11)

THE MATCHUP: If 2017 means more “Cowboy” at welterweight, then I am onboard. Cerrone’s 170-pound run has been nothing short of thrilling so far, and the new division has opened up a whole new host of mouthwatering matchups for the UFC’s busiest fighter. The latest among these is Masvidal, less celebrated but similarly decorated to Cerrone, and perfectly designed to contest him at every turn.

In a striking battle, Masvidal excels when his opponent sort of aimlessly comes forward -- it gives him the opportunity to land pot shots off the back foot -- without applying so much pressure that his volume begins to dwindle. Outside of that very specific type of fight, Masvidal has a clear ceiling. He is exceptionally experienced, of course, and a smooth enough operator that he can adapt very well to a variety of different styles, which is part of what makes this matchup so compelling. Against the best in the world, however, Masvidal has repeatedly failed to break through when it matters most, not unlike Cerrone.

Unfortunately for “Gamebred,” Cerrone is not particularly vulnerable to his specific type of fight. In fact, Cerrone’s bane tends to be fighters totally unlike Masvidal: aggressive, fast-starting punchers and southpaws. Given room to set up his strikes, Cerrone is one of the most dangerous kickboxers in the UFC, and he has become both harder to hurt and considerably more dangerous with age. His combination punching, head movement and footwork have improved by leaps and bounds, and this broadening of skills has only served to make Cerrone’s old favorites -- such as the trademark switch kick with which he knocked out Matt Brown -- more effective.

Cerrone has enjoyed considerable success shooting for takedowns, a tactic with which he has experimented more and more since 2013. The wrestling keeps Cerrone’s opponent reactive and affords him more opportunities to set up his strikes -- if his takedown does not lead to a submission first. Masvidal, however, is a very skilled wrestler who seeks to take down every opponent as a point of pride. He will not be troubled by Cerrone’s shots and may very well put “Cowboy” on his back a few times. Masvidal is an underrated submission grappler -- remember, he choked out Michael Chiesa -- but Cerrone has not been soundly outgrappled for well over half a decade. The wrestling and grappling in this fight will more than likely end up in a wash.

THE ODDS: Cerrone (-150), Masvidal (+130)

THE PICK: Masvidal should be competitive. He is good enough to compete with Cerrone; in fact, he is good enough to beat Cerrone. As noted above, Masvidal is an excellent adjuster whose only consistent flaw is his difficulty in pulling the trigger and going after his man. What happens if Masvidal lands a perfect counterstrike? What happens if Cerrone has an off night and walks into jab after jab, much as he did against Nate Diaz in 2011? Cerrone has evolved and Masvidal has more or less stayed the same, but at no point will Cerrone have such a huge advantage over Masvidal that he can afford to take his eye off the prize. Barring a stroke of luck or a sudden change in temperament, however, Masvidal will spend most of the fight half a step behind. The pick is Cerrone via back-and-forth unanimous decision.

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