Preview: UFC 279 ‘Chimaev vs. Diaz’

Catchweight

Kevin Holland (23-7, 10-4 UFC) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (16-2, 6-1 UFC)

ODDS: Holland (-200), Rodriguez (+170)

Holland’s cut down to welterweight has paid dividends thus far, as the “Trailblazer” has regained a lot of his lost momentum since moving to 170 pounds. Holland was an unexpected breakout star for the UFC in 2020, owing to an approach that was a perfect match for the pandemic era. He constantly talks his way through his fights, and in empty arenas, it served as a way for him to separate himself from the pack. Of course, Holland’s success inside the cage helped things along. The chaos of the UFC’s schedule allowed Holland to bank five fights over the span of seven months, going undefeated during that run and finishing four out of his five opponents. Once the calendar turned to 2021, Holland’s career took a clear step back. In his first UFC main event, Holland got completely neutralized over five rounds by Derek Brunson, who exposed his lack of defensive wrestling. Holland then turned around to fight in another main event three weeks later, and it was much the same story against Marvin Vettori. A bout against Kyle Daukaus then ended in a no contest due to an accidental clash of heads, so Holland’s breakout 2020 campaign gave way to a winless 2021. Already a reedy middleweight, it was a surprise when Holland decided to cut down to 170 pounds, but it has worked thus far. There has been no issue with the cut, and Holland’s 6-foot-3 frame and 81-inch reach have made him a unique challenge in his new weight class. Holland still leaves defensive openings and can be reckless at times, but his level of dynamism is as high as ever, with his scoring an impressive knockout of Alex Oliveira and a sudden submission of Tim Means to start his welterweight run. Holland gets another stiff challenge this time around, as he looks to stop Rodriguez’s surprisingly successful march, albeit at a 180-pound catchweight.

Order UFC 279 "Chimaev vs. Diaz" exclusively on ESPN+

Rodriguez was an afterthought when he got the late-notice UFC call just prior to the pandemic. His win on Dana White’s Contender Series the year prior was unimpressive and did not earn him a contract, and he figured to have a tough debut against a solid veteran opponent in Means. After a stunning second-round club-and-sub finish of Means—in the UFC veteran’s hometown, no less—Rodriguez has been a going concern at 170 pounds, winning six of his seven UFC bouts, with the lone loss coming via controversial decision. As the Means fight showed, the key to Rodriguez’s success has been his ability to deliver consistent power. He has not always been a knockout artist, but “D-Rod” is able to keep hitting his opponent hard over the course of 15 minutes and seems extremely difficult to take off track. Rodriguez’s last fight, an August 2021 win over Kevin Lee, saw him get outwrestled early but immediately find his way back to a winning approach. Given that Holland does not take particular advantage of his reach and can be wild at times, Rodriguez figures to find some big moments over the course of 15 minutes. With that said, Holland’s diversity of attack, along with the possibility of him getting things done on the ground with his grappling skill, should be enough to keep his head above water. The pick is Holland via decision.

Jump To »
Chimaev vs. Diaz
Li vs. Ferguson
Holland vs. Rodriguez
Aldana vs. Chiasson
Cutelaba vs. Walker
The Prelims