Preview: UFC 300 Prelims

Women’s Bantamweights

Kayla Harrison (16-1, 0-0 UFC) vs. #5 WBW | Holly Holm (15-6, 8-6 UFC)

ODDS: Harrison (-425), Holm (+330)

The UFC women’s bantamweight division is as stagnant as ever, so the time is right for Harrison to hopefully bring a breath of fresh air to the proceedings. A two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo, Harrison transitioned to mixed martial arts in 2016, eventually debuting with the PFL in 2018. As expected, Harrison mostly ran shop on her opposition. A natural lightweight, Harrison essentially got to compete in her own division, with her most notable competition consisting of inflated bantamweights and featherweights. As Harrison racked up wins, there wasn’t much of an obvious direction for her career going forward, which became even truer once she suffered her first career loss. In her third fight against Larissa Pacheco in 2022, Pacheco was able to hang with Harrison on the ground and take the decision in an ugly fight. Harrison did eventually rebound with a win over Aspen Ladd a year later, and the PFL’s merger with Bellator provided some hope that she could get paired against Cristiane Justino in a fascinating dream match of sorts. But with Harrison free of any contractual obligation, the UFC swooped in and signed Harrison with the understanding that she would cut down to bantamweight for the first time in her career. With her name value and the wide-open natural of the division, it’s understandable that the UFC would immediately drop Harrison into the deep end here, as it’s likely she gets a title shot at Raquel Pennington if she can get past a former champion in Holm.

A decorated boxer who made her much-hyped UFC debut in 2015, Holm made her mixed martial arts career in a matter of months. After beating Pennington and Marion Reneau, Holm authored one of the most memorable upsets of all-time, knocking out the seemingly unbeatable Ronda Rousey to win the UFC’s bantamweight title. But it often goes unsaid that Holm had surprisingly little consistent success from there. She lost the title to Miesha Tate four months later, kicking off a run where she lost five of seven fights; and even her wins over Bethe Correia and Megan Anderson were fairly unwatchable affairs. Even with that lack of success, Holm’s name value kept her relevant throughout it all—that win over Anderson even got her an unsuccessful title shot against Amanda Nunes—and she did eventually right the ship a bit as a gatekeeper to the title picture, even if she hasn’t gotten over the hump to earn another title shot herself. As Holm has aged, what was once a somewhat strategic counter-heavy game has become more and more anemic in terms of her offensive output, with most of Holm’s success coming through her combination of strength and speed. She’s typically been fast enough to flit at range and pick apart her opponents, and as that’s become less of an option, she’s pivoted towards grinding her opponents against the cage and neutralizing them for long stretches at a time. But even those margins of victory appear to be vanishing as Holm enters her early 40s. Ketlen Vieira earned a somewhat controversial decision win in 2022 based on output, and Holm struggled against the aggression of Mayra Bueno Silva before getting tapped out in the second round, though that fight was later overturned to a no contest. Holm can probably still stay ahead of a vast majority of women’s bantamweights on the roster, but she does look ripe for the picking against an opponent capable of bringing some horsepower to the cage—a description that Harrison certainly seems to fit. The main worry is the specter of that weight cut. It’s uncharted territory for Harrison, so beyond the worry of her making the weight in the first place, there’s the concern that she might drain herself to the point of ineffectiveness, particularly in a fight that’s going to require a lot of physical strength. It figures to be an ugly grind no matter the winner, and Harrison gets the benefit of the doubt that this weight cut can go off without a hitch. The pick is Harrison via decision.

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