Prime Picks: UFC Vegas 103 ‘Kape vs. Almabayev’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship is not putting its best foot forward on Saturday, as it takes shelter in the UFC Apex once more. While the main event has some interesting dynamics and implications for both parties, the same can scarcely be said for most of the remaining competitors on the lineup. Audiences may have to drudge through this show to find a few diamonds in the rough, but it’s tough sledding, both from an on-paper perspective and with betting lines. Join the UFC Vegas 103 edition of Prime Picks as we climb for dollars.

Asu Almabayev (+178)

If one were to peruse an English-language comment section discussing one of Almabayev’s fights, the Kazakhstan native would seem like the second coming of Jake Shields or Jared Rosholt. Even though he floated around the Brave Combat Federation scene for a couple years, most learned of his existence when he debuted in the UFC in 2023 to tap out Ode Osbourne. Three workmanlike wins, replete with lather-rinse-repeat takedown cycles, sucked a lot of the wind out of his excitement. With such a clear focus on grappling and a means-to-an-end striking game, it’s clear what he has planned against brick-fisted Manel Kape. Based on Kape’s past outings against Matheus Nicolau—an insanely close affair that may have gone against him because of the Brazilian’s scored takedowns—and Muhammad Mokaev, a takedown is a hot commodity to get on the former Rizin Fighting Federation champion but one that can nullify him quite well.

Much is often said about the existence of the threat of the takedown, where wrestlers merely pump-faking level changes forces high-amplitude brawlers to think twice about overcommitting to offense. It is no slight to Kape that some of his fights have swung the other direction due to his lack of activity, and it is something that could easily rear its ugly head once more when facing a tackle-focused adversary. Kape might have nightmares of what Mokaev did to him over three grueling rounds, grinding and grappling him to the point where he could only get off 20 noteworthy strikes across 15 long, agonizing minutes. Every round starts on the feet, and it will be up to Kape to sprawl and brawl to the point that he gets Almabayev’s attention and advertises the price of admission with his devastating knees and quick kicks. As long as “Zulfikhar” does not get caught in the first two frames, he can make it dirty and take home the win, much to the disappointment of Kape and fans watching around the world.

Esteban Ribovics Wins in Over 2.5 Rounds (-130)

If Argentina’s Ribovics introduced himself to the masses in a big way by punting Terrance McKinney in May, his top-tier engagement with Daniel Zellhuber at the Sphere for UFC 306 put him on the map. Authoring the best round of the year, Ribovics and Zellhuber went for broke in Round 3 to wrap up a sensational three-round tilt that got better as time progressed. Even though he got dropped, “El Gringo” kept stinging his opponent and put on a pace few can match to pull off the win. This type of firefight is exactly what Nasrat Haqparast not only welcomes but excels in, making this an early “Fight of the Night” pick. The displayed durability of both fighters likely means that even as they land flush on one another, neither man will likely go down early.

The striking rates are exceptional for both fighters, but what might slide under the radar is that they are still defensively sound, statistically speaking, despite their extremely high volume. A takedown may only present itself if one man gets his bell rung, but it is just as likely that one of these lightweights gets rocked and bites down on his mouthpiece to swing back harder. Ribovics has the luxury of facing multiple switch-stance fighters in rapid succession, meaning he will not likely struggle with battling a southpaw in Haqparast. It should be a whole lot of fun—a fight that Ribovics can win and roll downhill as the rounds tick on.

Mario Pinto Wins by TKO/KO (-150)

The UFC is throwing red meat to the crowd in the Apex in the preliminary headliner, as two knockout-friendly burly brawlers come to blows. Two of the larger men in the division—Austen Lane measures 6-foot-6 to Pinto’s 6-foot-5, while the latter needs the one-pound allowance—will ply their trade, and punching is what they do the best in the Octagon. While the fighters post a single submission on their combined ledgers, unless a sub falls into their lap, it is likely to be all striking until one of them goes down. In these kinds of expected slugfests, experience does not play as much of a factor when both throw caution to the wind and sling heavy leather. Barring an adrenaline dump where Pinto burns out in three minutes, in part due to having to fend off takedowns from the Floridian, it should be his fight to win.

Still undefeated after nine professional outings, Pinto has the youthful confidence of a striker just 26 years of age—a toddler by heavyweight standards. Level of opposition has not always been stellar as he rose up the European circuit, but fortunately for him, Lane is the perfect introductory test that he should be able to surpass with flying colors. Lane relies far too much on his chin to get inside. While he did mix in wrestling to defuse titanic kickboxer Robelis Despaigne, unless Pinto’s takedown defense is also of the “fish out of water” variety, Lane may find himself crashing into a brick wall that hits back. Very important for the newcomer is that he has gone five full rounds before and not only survived but won, but he will not likely need too long to earn his 10th pro victory.

Charles Johnson (-128)

It makes no sense that this flyweight matchup is either positioned as the card opener or the second bout on the billing. Of all the competitors on the lineup, a victorious Johnson may be the next-closest fighter to a title shot beyond the winner of the main event. “InnerG” finds himself on a run of four straight wins, defying expectations and even blowing the doors off of fast-rising contender Joshua Van. As he has won these back-to-back-to-back-to-back fights, he has done so against foes with dramatically different skill sets and still did enough to get his hand raised in all four. This encounter with Ramazonbek Temirov may not be a step back, per se, but it is at best a lateral move given Johnson’s sudden success. Johnson, who has found his power and upped his defensive abilities significantly, was once the underdog and is now the rightful favorite.

When Temirov debuted in October against C.J. Vergara, he put the screws to the Texan, beating him in all facets of the game before drumming him out in less than three minutes. This, along with knockouts of Yuta Hamamoto and Takaki Soya—all wins on the major stage—merited a large step up in competition for the Uzbekistan native. His fists flew hard and fast, registering numerous knockdowns and displaying power not often seen at 125 pounds. The taller Johnson should not fall into the old habit of leaning back to avoid big strikes, as this is where he can get caught should he back up to the cage and have no more room to roam. With a seven-inch range advantage and a five-inch edge in height, Johnson needs to make the most of his frame and make Temirov respect him early. While the fighter out of Murcielago MMA has had his chin checked before, it has never betrayed him. Temirov will try. Unless Temirov can become the first to crack it, Johnson can use his footwork, head movement and experience edge to pick up the win.