Preview: UFC 306 ‘O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili’

Featherweights

#13 FW | Diego Lopes (25-6, 4-1 UFC) vs. #3 FW | Brian Ortega (16-3, 8-3 UFC)

ODDS: Lopes (-175), Ortega (+145)

UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!
Some unfinished business gets settled here after the fairly insane goings-on at UFC 303, as Ortega and Lopes were slated to lock horns in June. However, an Ortega illness led to Dan Ige stepping in and taking on Lopes on such late notice that the fight wasn’t confirmed when the card started. At any rate, that was the latest twist in what has been a frustrating few years for Ortega, whose injury absences have distracted from the fact that he’s still quite effective. Ortega’s initial rise through the ranks was quite impressive, if only for how it defied the odds. A potent finisher, particularly on the ground, “T-City” probably didn’t win a round in any of his fights leading up to his first title shot, scoring finishes either quickly or as part of a major comeback. Ortega’s luck finally ran out against Max Holloway, who avoided all of his challenger’s best weapons and laid on a one-sided beating that forced the Californian to take nearly two years off and retool. Ortega looked unrecognizable in his comeback fight—both in terms of approach and thanks to shaving off his signature locks—and put together an excellent striking performance against Chan Sung Jung, enough so that he was rushed right back into another title shot. The script for Ortega’s second title shot—this time against Alexander Volkanovski—was much the same as the first. Ortega had his moments but mostly got outclassed by another all-time great. An attempted rebound against Yair Rodriguez ended quickly thanks to Ortega suffering a major shoulder injury, which in turn led to another year-plus layoff before a rematch in February that almost went south. Ortega injured his ankle in the cage while warming up during fighter introductions, but that made his ensuing performance all the more impressive. He nearly got knocked out immediately but bounced back to turn things into an ugly grind and eventually exhaust Rodriguez, subsequently earning a third-round submission. Ortega’s career is at a strange point where nearly all the vibes are negative but he remains one of the toughest outs in the sport, and it’s unclear if that latter point will be enough against Lopes.

A Brazilian by birth who has planted roots in Mexico, Lopes was on the verge of a callup for years until the UFC finally signed him in May 2023—with the caveat that his debut would come against rising contender Movsar Evloev, who figured to outwrestle him for three rounds. That was generally the outline of the fight, but Lopes’ aggression on the ground scored him a few near-finishes and some status as a cult favorite, and his profile has only risen with his hot streak over the last year. Lopes has an approach built around bringing chaos to his opponents almost immediately, and that resulted in three straight sub-two-minute wins before a decision victory over Ige. That’s where the cracks started to show for Lopes, at least for the first time since he has had high expectations. The Ige fight happened under admittedly rare circumstances, but it did show that Lopes’ balls-to-the-wall style does tend to have diminishing returns against opponents able to survive and settle their way into the fight. It has taken multiple rounds of high-volume abuse or an injury to finish Ortega thus far, so no matter how much success Lopes has early on—and he figures to have some—the surest bet here seems to be Ortega winning this over the long haul, likely whenever he’s able to adjust to and counter Lopes’ aggression. The pick is Ortega via second-round submission.

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O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili
Grasso vs. Shevchenko
Lopes vs. Ortega
Zellhuber vs. Ribovics
Rodriguez vs. Osbourne
The Prelims