Preview: UFC 196 ‘McGregor vs. Diaz’

Light heavyweights

Corey Anderson (7-1) vs Tom Lawlor (24-11)

THE MATCHUP: Both Anderson and Lawlor have faced Gian Villante. Both fights ended in KOs, with Anderson on the wrong end and Lawlor on the right. That may seem like a bit of MMA math waiting to happen, but hold off on the calculations.

Anderson is one of the youngest fighters in the light heavyweight division. Sharing the top 15 with men like Rashad Evans (36), Mauricio Rua (34), Glover Teixeira (36), Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (39) and Daniel Cormier (36), Anderson’s 26 years of age start to seem very young indeed. Anderson’s loss to VIllante came just about a year ago, and “Beastin 25/8” endured an impressive amount of punishment before succumbing to the Strikeforce vet’s heavy hands. It was Anderson’s sixth fight and Villante’s 18th.

The promising traits that Anderson displayed in that bout have only improved in the 11 months since. Anderson is still lightning-quick for a light heavyweight and stays cool and collected in the face of adversity. His wrestle-boxer style has grown by leaps and bounds under the tutelage of Mark Henry. In his most recent fight against Fabio Maldonado, Anderson displayed crisp combination punching, excellent angular footwork and an instinct for well-timed takedowns not unlike that of teammate Frankie Edgar. Also like Edgar, Anderson worked brilliantly from half guard by keeping Maldonado flattened out and battering him while he struggled to untangle himself.

Lawlor’s game is actually similar to Anderson’s on the meta level. He is a wrestle-boxer with a penchant for grinding cage work and a surprising knack for counterpunching. Lawlor’s limitations are much more profound than Anderson’s, however, and at 32, there is comparatively little hope of significant improvements. Lawlor is a fairly sharp boxer, though his repertoire is limited to straight lefts and right hooks. While he stayed mostly at striking range in his fight with Villante, Lawlor has historically used his strikes to cover distance and lunge into close range, where he shoots for takedowns or gets stuck in the clinch. Lawlor does have some pop in his hands and a solid arm-in guillotine, both of which could prove troublesome to the inexperienced Anderson.

Despite his fondness for wrestling, Lawlor has often struggled when put on his back, which does not bode well against Anderson’s Renzo Gracie-honed jiu-jitsu.

THE ODDS: Anderson (-290), Lawlor (+240)

THE PICK: Lawlor’s last two wins came under similar circumstances: He got beat up and/or injured and then staged a comeback win in the second round. That speaks to Lawlor’s tenacity, but it is not a pattern on which to rely. Most of Lawlor’s victories on the UFC stage have come as the result of grave mistakes on the part of his opponents, and if his last two fights are anything to go on, Anderson does not make many mistakes. As impressive as Lawlor’s homecoming win over Villante was, there is little reason to believe that he will be able to replicate the feat. Meanwhile, the evidence for an Anderson win is quite compelling. The pick is Anderson by third-round TKO.

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