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Welterweights

Andre Fialho (16-4, 2-1 UFC) vs. Jake Matthews (17-5, 10-5 UFC)

ODDS: Fialho (-140), Matthews (+120)

Fialho continues his torrid pace in 2022. After making his UFC debut in January, this marks Fialho’s third fight in the past eight weeks, as he last competed five weeks ago at UFC 274. Fialho figured to settle in nicely at the UFC level, as he had a more decorated career than most late-notice UFC signings thanks to stints in Bellator MMA and the Professional Fighters League. Yet, there is still the potential of a breakthrough from the Portuguese fighter, who is quite capable in all aspects. His first idea is to march his opponent down and throw power, which often works, after which Fialho tends to pivot to some manner of other idea. In mixing things up, Fialho obviously becomes uncomfortable and tired down the stretch, which is what happened in his UFC debut loss to Michel Pereira. However, if Fialho can steel himself for a full 15 minutes, there is the potential for him to get close to title contention. Fialho’s last two affairs have been of the quick knockout win variety, though it will be a surprise if he makes it three in a row against the steady Matthews. Back when the UFC was looking for a potential Australian star a few years ago, Matthews was a hopeful for that role. “The Celtic Kid” made his UFC debut at just 19 years old in 2014 and already showed some talent as a wrestler and grappler. Eight years later, Matthews has filled out physically and rounded out his skills, but he has turned into a rather unspectacular fighter, for better or for worse. He can control his opponents with wrestling and shows some power behind some fundamental striking, but his whole approach is built around safety, leading to a lot of slow-paced decision wins. It has also led to Matthews hitting a clear ceiling somewhere around the Top 20 of the division. Once he finds an opponent who can physically match him and neutralize his wrestling, the effectiveness of Matthews’ approach tends to fall apart. However, Matthews is still ridiculously durable, so he should be able to weather any early trouble and grind out a win in the back half of this fight. The Aussie should be the better wrestler, and Matthews does have a tendency to crack his opponents a few times over the course of 15 minutes. It may be ugly at points, but the pick is Matthews via decision.

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