Preview: UFC 295 ‘Prochazka vs. Pereira’

Lightweights

Benoit St. Denis (12-1, 4-1 UFC) vs. #14 LW | Matt Frevola (11-3-1, 5-3-1 UFC)

ODDS: St. Denis (-230), Frevola (+190)

Two of 2023’s breakout lightweights square off in what should be an absolute barnburner. Heading into the year, Frevola was already well-established as one of the most exciting fighters on the roster. “Steamrolla” typically brought an all-pressure style to the proceedings that would either see him get knocked out early or overwhelm his opponents through sheer aggression. However, his fight against Drew Dober in May mostly figured to be a fun, stay-busy affair for Dober. Beyond Frevola’s inconsistencies, Dober’s traditional durability seemingly gave him little chance of winning the race to a knockout punch. However, some of Frevola’s recent improvements—namely, his willingness to finish an exchange that his opponent starts rather than overextending himself—paid off huge, shockingly resulting in him stunning Dober and pounding out a finish in a shade over four minutes. Now in the UFC’s rankings, the Long Islander looks to defend his standing on home soil against St. Denis, who should be down for a potential bloodbath. The Frenchman’s UFC debut proved him to be—perhaps literally—unkillable. In a tough late-notice spot against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, some poor refereeing led to the “God of War” surviving a brutal extended beating before surprisingly staging a minor comeback. Cutting back down to his natural weight at 155 pounds has turned St. Denis into an absolute terror. An aggressive striker, wrestler and grappler buoyed by his durability, St. Denis has been unshakeable in his pressure and pursuit of a finish, coming out the victor every time. St. Denis has particularly made himself known in the last four months, upending the Ismael Bonfim hype train with a first-round win and then beating Thiago Moises in a highlight of the Paris card in September. By taking another quick turnaround against Frevola, St. Denis could find himself staring down a Top 10 opponent with a win here. Defense is often an afterthought for St. Denis, so there is certainly the possibility that Frevola can pull off the same trick he did against Dober and Ottman Azaitar before him, making the Frenchman pay for his unchecked aggression by blasting him with one hard counter. Still, given what St. Denis has been able to eat so far, it is hard to go against him here. The pick is St. Denis via first-round submission.

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Prochazka vs. Pereira
Aspinall vs. Pavlovich
Dern vs. Andrade
St. Denis vs. Frevola
Sabatini vs. Lopes
The Prelims