Preview: UFC 295 ‘Prochazka vs. Pereira’

Women’s Strawweights

#7 WSW | Mackenzie Dern (13-3, 8-3 UFC) vs. #12 P4P | Jessica Andrade (24-12, 15-10 UFC)

ODDS: Dern (-198), Andrade (+164)

The narrative of this fight might center around Dern looking for the biggest win of her career to get over the hump to title contention, but Andrade might actually have more to prove at the moment. A raw bantamweight prospect when she signed with the UFC in 2013, Andrade cut down to strawweight a few years later and somehow carried all of her power and physicality to her new weight class in the process. Andrade might have been lacking in terms of pure technique, but she showed an impressive ability to keep marching forward while causing an uncommon amount of damage for a 115-pound woman. She fell short in her first title shot against Joanna Jedrzejczyk but quickly charged back up the ladder to win the strawweight belt in quintessentially Andrade fashion from Rose Namajunas in 2019, picking up “Thug Rose” during a clinch exchange and knocking the Milwaukee native unconscious after slamming her onto her head. Andrade’s reign was short-lived—Weili Zhang was every bit the powerhouse and knocked her out in just 42 seconds—and from there, “Bate Estaca” bounced between strawweight and flyweight on the fringes of title contention, even earning a shot at flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko at one point. Things went well enough for a while—Andrade was frozen out of both title pictures for a time but was as fearsome as anyone in either division—but after kicking off 2023 with a complete win over Lauren Murphy in January, the ensuing 10 months have been a bit of a disaster. Andrade stepped in on late notice to take on top flyweight prospect Erin Blanchfield in February. Andrade’s recent technical improvements had previously paid some dividends, but against Blanchfield, they just made her appear cautious as the American met her head-on and eventually scored a second-round submission. Andrade then returned to strawweight against Xiaonan Yan and seemingly tried to overcompensate with aggression, only to get knocked out in a shade under two and a half minutes. While Andrade struck more of a balance in her August fight against Tatiana Suarez, it still was not an effective showing in what ended up in a one-sided loss. Andrade could badly use a bounce-back opportunity to figure some things out and regain her momentum, but instead, she winds up facing what seems to be a career-best version of Dern.

Dern’s career has been a frustrating ride given the level of hype she received upon her UFC debut. On the shortlist of most decorated female grapplers to move into mixed martial arts, Dern’s physicality and ground game figured to make her a contender in short order. However, while many of Dern’s wins have been impressively quick and flashy affairs, her rise through the ranks has had its fair share of disappointing pitfalls. Dern often has not had the level of wrestling needed to effectively set up her grappling game, and her striking training did not pay many dividends thanks to an often-aimless approach. As Dern got featured spots and main events, it was not a surprise to see some wildly inconsistent performances even in the same fight. One round could see Dern fighting with impressive pressure and chaining together near-finishes on the ground, and the next would see her lose all urgency and coast to a loss in a slow-paced striking match. Some personal turmoil raised some worry ahead of Dern’s headliner against Angela Hill in May, but it seems to have helped her put in the most focused performance of her career. She fought with fire and took out her frustrations on Hill in a five-round showing that saw her do everything but score a finish. The tools are there for Dern to be a terror if she has finally channeled some aggression—she can take a punch and has some looping power on the feet to go along with her chops on the mat—and even if that was a one-time peak, she still might be a more trustworthy fighter than Andrade at this point, particularly since the latter’s takedown defense has never been a strong suit. As long as Dern comes into this fight with some level of focus, this should turn into a showcase. The pick is Dern via first-round submission.

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Prochazka vs. Pereira
Aspinall vs. Pavlovich
Dern vs. Andrade
St. Denis vs. Frevola
Sabatini vs. Lopes
The Prelims