Preview: UFC Fight Night 224 ‘Aspinall vs. Tybura’

Middleweights

Andre Muniz (23-5) vs. Paul Craig (16-6-1)

ODDS: Muniz (-215), Craig (+185)

It will be fascinating to see how this one plays out. Since making it to the UFC in 2016, Scotland’s Craig has typically been thought of as more of a curiosity than any sort of real contender. An aggressive grappler, Craig brought enough of a change of pace to the table to catch opponents off-guard, but the rest of his game looked flammable enough that he could be quickly dispatched by more thoughtful opponents. Yet he has proven shockingly effective. A literal last-second submission win in an otherwise dominating performance from Magomed Ankalaev remains one of the sport’s all-time best comebacks, and Craig managed a six-fight unbeaten streak that only finally came to an end in 2022. Craig has always played a low-percentage game, and it seems like his luck corrected in losses to Volkan Oezdemir and Johnny Walker. He likely would have just bounced back in time, but Craig has surprisingly decided to cut down to 185 pounds for this fight against a fellow submission ace in Muniz. A 2019 alum of Dana White’s Contender Series, Muniz figured to slot in similarly to Craig as a dangerous specialist who would suffer his share of losses, but “Sergipano” started off his UFC career with an impressive run, announcing himself with a 2021 armbar victory over Ronaldo Souza that broke the former top contender's arm. With subsequent wins over Eryk Anders and Uriah Hall, Muniz seemed established enough to make a run towards contention, which made a step back for a matchup against Brendan Allen a bit of a surprise. What figured to be a winnable fight against an opponent willing to grapple instead turned into a dominant win from Allen, who neutralized Muniz’s wrestling enough to eventually engage on his own terms and score a surprising submission of his own. Given where each man is most comfortable, this figures to turn into a grappling match, and it appears Muniz should have the advantage there. Craig is the much more willing of the two to put himself in a bad position in the hopes of turning it into something better, and that figures to be a poor idea against someone as potent on the mat as Muniz. Add in that Craig’s weight cut seems a bit questionable, and the Brazilian gets the nod in a hard fight to call. The pick is Muniz via second-round submission.

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Aspinall vs. Tybura
McCann vs. Stoliarenko
Wood vs. Fili
Muniz vs. Craig
Ziam vs. Herbert
Murphy vs. Culibao
The Prelims