Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Henderson vs. Thatch’

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MIDDLEWEIGHTS

Daniel Kelly (8-0, 1-0 UFC) vs. Patrick Walsh (5-1, 1-0 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: This is a puzzling choice for a main card fight. Kelly is an Olympic judoka who competed on “The Ultimate Fighter Nations,” though he came up well short of the finals; he won his UFC debut against Luke Zachrich in November. Walsh, a veteran of the 19th season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” wrestled for a year at Ohio State University and bounced around to other programs. He won his UFC debut against Dan Spohn in July. Neither fighter is really a blue-chipper and both are fairly limited, so this might be the fight to take a bathroom break.

Walsh is almost exclusively a wrestler at this point -- and not a bad one. His shot is fairly quick, he chains together his takedowns nicely and he finishes with authority, specializing in slams and high-crotch lifts. He understands distance fairly well and rarely shoots in open space or from too far away. His southpaw striking repertoire is essentially limited to a looping left and right hook, but he is extremely durable and does a good job of disguising his shots with punches. From top position, Walsh is mostly a grinder. He maintains a heavy base and chips away with short punches but lacks much in the way of finishing potential aside from a topside arm lock.

Kelly is a little further along in his development, although he is still limited. A solid athlete even at age 36, he cracks away with a nice straight left from his southpaw stance, hand fights well and can slip in the occasional sharp kick. His real strong suit, however, is in the clinch. Kelly is an outstanding dirty boxer, with brutal strength in his single-collar ties, power in his short uppercuts and hard knees to the body. He integrates those strikes beautifully with an array of trips and throws, and once the fight hits the ground, he is difficult to shake off as he works to pass and lock up a submission.

BETTING ODDS: Walsh (-165), Kelly (+145)

THE PICK: Barring unrealistic skill improvements from both fighters, this could be really, really ugly if it turns into a kickboxing match at range. If Walsh and Kelly engage in the clinch and in wrestling or grappling exchanges, however, it could be a ton of fun. I think we get more of the former than the latter, and I favor Walsh by a smidgen on the basis of his youth and superior athleticism. Walsh by decision is the pick.

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