Garbrandt finds himself in a strange spot. “No Love” ran a string
of quick knockouts to a shockingly one-sided title win over
Dominick
Cruz, but a blood feud with T.J.
Dillashaw saw him lose both his belt and the rematch. Garbrandt
does not exactly come off as the smartest guy away from
competition, and while he is not quite a simpleton inside the cage,
it does seem like the mental aspect of the sport is holding him
back. Garbrandt’s game is entirely quick counters based on
triggers, which was something with which Cruz had trouble dealing.
Cruz’s off-kilter striking is built around darting in and beating
his opponent to the punch, but Garbrandt’s elite hand speed allowed
him to win every exchange and cruise to a dominant decision. That
almost led to his beating Dillashaw in their first fight; Dillashaw
threw out strikes to try and feel out Garbrandt, and one of his
former Team Alpha Male stablemate’s counters nearly took off his
head near the end of the first round. However, Dillashaw adapted in
the second round, mostly by throwing kicks, countered Garbrandt’s
reactions and dominated the balance of the fight before scoring a
finish. When it was time for the rematch, it was just more of the
same. Dillashaw carried over all the lessons from their first
fight, while Garbrandt was still the same fighter, too reliant on
his physical gifts. Naturally, the result was the same, only this
time Dillashaw won in even quicker fashion. The strengths and
weaknesses of Garbrandt’s game are now laid bare, but the question
remains about how much that matters. Yes, Garbrandt’s striking
relies on his reaction time and hand speed rather than any overall
strategy, but he also has some of the best reaction time and hand
speed in the sport. At any rate, the comeback trail starts here, as
Munhoz looks to capitalize on the openings that Dillashaw made
apparent.
Thanks to some tough matchmaking and a flagged drug test, Munhoz
had a slow start to his UFC career, but he has firmly hit his
stride as a reliable Top 10 bantamweight. Munhoz’s game is fairly
simple if unique. It is entirely based around wading forward with
pressure and trying to force his opponents into mistakes. Yes, he
is hittable, but Munhoz relies on his durability to constantly
throw back, and once his opponent starts to panic and grapple, it
is all over, as he has one of the nastiest guillotine chokes in the
sport. It has its flaws, particularly with an opponent who can
outrun him or beat him to the punch, but Munhoz consistently brings
action and leaves his opponents with little room to breathe.
There are interesting matchups for Garbrandt as he tries to work
his way back to a title shot, but this is a fairly forgiving one.
In terms of overall level, these two are probably pretty close, but
Munhoz’s defensively porous pressure style is tailor-made for
Garbrandt to tee off as he sees fit; and while Munhoz has proven
particularly durable, the type of dynamite that Garbrandt packs
should end this sooner rather than later. Garbrandt is at his worst
when his opponent stays cautious and does not give him openings.
That will not be the case here. The pick is Garbrandt via
first-round knockout.
