Preview: UFC 282 Prelims

Featherweights

Billy Quarantillo (16-4, 4-2 UFC) vs. Alexander Hernandez (13-5, 5-4 UFC)

ODDS: Quarantillo (-165), Hernandez (+140)

Perhaps Hernandez can unlock something with this cut down to 145 pounds. Hernandez immediately announced himself as a prospect to watch in his 2018 UFC debut. He was a late-notice replacement and a bit of an afterthought heading into his bout with Beneil Dariush, but he ran over the Kings MMA standout in just 42 seconds. With another one-sided win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Hernandez looked poised to break out as a contender heading into 2019. However, he instead ran into Donald Cerrone, who put on one of his last great performances and blew open all of the holes in Hernandez’s aggressive approach. It was a loss that looks to have derailed Hernandez’s career. He was overly cautious to the point of near-inactivity in an interminable win over Francisco Trinaldo in his next fight, and he has since obviously struggled to recapture the confidence that marked most of his best outings. Quick knockouts over Chris Gruetzemacher and Mike Breeden in recent years have shown that Hernandez can still obliterate a subpar athlete in short order, but after about a round, he starts to get frustrated and disheartened to the point of leaving himself open for a finish. If Hernandez can retain his power and strength moving down to featherweight, that could help him carry his confidence further into his fights. With that said, UFC matchmakers have not done him any favors by pitting him against Quarantillo. It took Quarantillo years to make it to the UFC, going through both “The Ultimate Fighter” and Dana White’s Contender Series to do so, but he has been one of the most reliably exciting fighters in the promotion since his 2019 debut. Quarantillo is not a standout athlete, but he has learned to leverage his durability into a highly effective style, pressuring his opponents with volume offense until he can find a point where they eventually break. That seems to line up perfectly against someone who can struggle in the way Hernandez has, but there are some points of hope for the underdog. Hernandez may be stout enough to stifle Quarantillo’s wrestling, and the former King of the Cage champion has historically been much less effective when he is unable to score takedowns. There is also the chance that Hernandez’s strength advantage buys him enough confidence to bank two rounds until Quarantillo takes over the fight, but the dynamic here is too much ignore. The bet is that Quarantillo can make this a miserable time sooner rather than later and eventually find a position for a finish. The pick is Quarantillo via third-round stoppage.

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