Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Machida vs. Dollaway’

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WELTERWEIGHTS

Erick Silva (16-5, 4-4 UFC) vs. Mike Rhodes (6-3, 0-2 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Touted Roufusport prospect Rhodes gets one more chance to prove he belongs in the UFC, drawing a brutal matchup in an explosive finisher in Silva. The Brazilian took a vicious beating in a knockout loss to Matt Brown in May but prior to that knocked out sacrificial lamb Takenori Sato in a ridiculous mismatch. Rhodes dropped his UFC debut to George Sullivan in January and then a competitive decision to “The Ultimate Fighter Nations” winner Robert Whittaker in June. This should be a fun striking matchup between two guys who desperately need a win.

Silva is a quintessential frontrunner and a holy terror for the first few minutes of the fight. As it goes deeper, however, he has progressively less to offer. The entirety of his game in his striking, wrestling and even grappling is based around explosive, high-energy movements. He leaps in with destructive single shots at range, namely overhands and crushing round kicks; he looks for slick trips, big throws and vicious knees in the clinch; and he predicates his grappling on lightning-fast submissions and transitions, especially spinning to the back and working chokes from the front headlock. He does not generate sustained offense in any position, and if his opponent can weather the early storm, Silva relies on his toughness rather than any particular defensive skill or savvy to gut it out as long as he can. This style produces an extraordinary highlight reel, but it is simply not sustainable for even a three-round fight, and opponents who survive the initial storm have put hellacious beatings on the Brazilian.

Roufusport’s Rhodes is a new-breed, three-dimensional fighter with plus physical tools of his own. As his pedigree suggests, he is a smooth, rangy kickboxer with brutal kicks, a long straight right and an ever-growing command of angles, range and output. He is also a solid wrestler with great drive and authoritative finishes to his takedowns. Although he does not have a deep arsenal of techniques, his double-leg is outstanding, and he is extremely difficult to get to the mat. On the ground, Rhodes has little to offer from his back -- he prefers to scramble back to his feet -- but owns a solid, damaging top game with good posture and a strong base. In sum, Rhodes is a capable fighter with a ton of upside, but he is still fairly raw.

THE PICK: The consensus seems to be treating this as another squash match for Silva, and that is simply wrong. Rhodes was signed to the UFC far too early, and the raw nature of his skills betrayed him in a pair of unfavorable matchups. By this point, we have a solid sense for Silva’s game: If he cannot finish in the first round, he will lose. Look for Rhodes to maintain long range, force Silva to chase, avoid the ground and wear down the Brazilian with low kicks and body shots. The American is durable, and he is fully capable of weathering the early storm and putting a beating on Silva late. Rhodes by 29-28 decision is the pick.

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