Preview: UFC on ABC 7 ‘Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov’

Women’s Strawweights

#7 WSW | Mackenzie Dern (13-5, 8-5 UFC) vs. #10 WSW | Lupita Godinez (12-4, 7-4 UFC)

ODDS: Dern (-130), Godinez (+110)

Some fun matchmaking pairs off two of the most consistently inconsistent fighters in the UFC’s strawweight division. Dern rightfully gained a considerable amount of hype heading into her 2018 UFC debut. She was on the shortlist of most decorated grapplers to make it onto the UFC roster regardless of gender and tied a few regional opponents into pretzels as a result. That grappling wizardry has been on display at times, but that UFC debut—a middling decision win over Ashley Yoder—showed that Dern’s move up against better competition might not be all that smooth. For all of her skill on the mat, Dern isn’t a strong enough wrestler to consistently get to her best skills, and her attempts to improve as a striker have been an adventure to say the least. She clearly has enough durability and horsepower to cause some damage but tends to either throw everything wildly or completely take her foot off the gas. Once Dern worked her way into fights with legitimate contenders, the narrative started to focus around that passivity. She’d have clear stretches of success against the likes of Marina Rodriguez and Xiaonan Yan on the mat but then spend rounds feeling things out on the feet and accomplishing little while coasting to a decision loss. But for one fight, it seemed like Dern might have finally put everything together. Seemingly fueled by rage thanks to some turmoil in her personal life, Dern put a focused beating on Angela Hill in May 2023, striking with a newfound aggression and applying enough pressure to consistently get to her grappling game. That made it particularly frustrating when Dern completely regressed in her next fight against Jessica Andrade, though she did perform better against Amanda Lemos in February. It was still a loss, but Dern showed enough flashes to suggest she isn’t a complete lost cause after her poor performance against Andrade. Dern is still just 31 years old and hitting the point in her professional career where things might actually click, but for the time being, just a win will do against Godinez.

Godinez is another fighter who has seemingly been on the verge of a breakthrough for her entire UFC career. A late-notice signing in 2021, “Loopy” set the tone within the span of the next few months. She’s willing to stay extremely active—including taking three fights in six weeks and fighting on a one-week turnaround—and she tends to run extremely hot and cold, either looking like an absolute terror or accomplishing little over three rounds. When everything works for Godinez, her much-improved pressure striking game is able to flow into some bruising wrestling, allowing her to play an effective bully while putting her opponent through a proverbial spin cycle of takedowns. However, for as much as Godinez looks unstoppable in her victories, it takes surprisingly little at times to throw her completely off track. Early on in her UFC career, Godinez took her foot off the gas against both Jessica Penne and Luana Carolina, seemingly only because she was at a clear height disadvantage. Godinez was also stymied to a surprising degree against Hill when the two locked horns in 2022, and while she has gotten better at using her striking as a fallback when her wrestling doesn’t work, a March loss to Virna Jandiroba showed that she still has a lot of issues against someone who can neutralize her wrestling and keep bringing offense of their own. Godinez should have enough horsepower of her own to stand up to Dern and fight through the gaps in the grappling ace’s game, but their respective careers to date suggest that she is going to be the one to cede ground. So while Dern’s performance figures to be messy, she should be able to win rounds through asserting her aggression. The pick is Dern via decision.

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Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Magomedov vs. Oleksiejczuk
Figueiredo vs. Vera
Chiesa vs. Ferguson
Dern vs. Godinez
Alvarez vs. Brener
The Prelims