Preview: UFC 194 ‘Aldo vs. McGregor’

Bantamweights

Urijah Faber (32-8) vs Frankie Saenz (11-2): Saenz’s striking is rudimentary, but he knows exactly how to focus that limited skill set. Just about everything he does on the feet is geared toward lining up his right hand and right kick and following those weapons right into the clinch, where he switches between thudding knees, slicing elbows and takedowns. Saenz is brutally strong and technical in that close range, crushing his opponents’ underhooks and using head pressure to bull them into the cage, where he is more than happy to chip away with short strikes. Faber needs no introduction. Since 2003, he has fought the very best in the world, though wear and tear seems to be taking a toll as he nears his 37th birthday. Saenz could use his underrated footwork to replicate the game plan that led Frankie Edgar to a victory over Faber in May, but without Edgar’s jab and intelligent takedown entries, that likely will not be enough; and scramble-heavy submission grappling is the one area of Faber’s game that seems to be chugging along as well as ever. Expect a fast-paced, back-and-forth fight, but Faber has not yet fallen far enough to lose to a relative novice like Saenz. Faber wins by unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Warlley Alves (9-0) vs Colby Covington (8-0): There are grinders, and then there is Covington. When he is not testing out his striking, which does still need work, the NCAA All-American wrestler pursues takedowns like nobody’s business. He seems capable of doing so for round after round, which could be a massive advantage against Alves. The Brazilian finisher looked drained and tired by the end of his three-round tilt with Alan Jouban -- a fate he partially brought on himself by swinging away with reckless abandon for the first minute of the fight. Alves is extremely athletic himself, but his is a short-burst kind of power, not the relentless chugging of Covington. Alves is also a much better finisher, however, with powerful hands, excellent timing and lightning-quick submissions. Covington will have the edge if Alves fails to conserve his energy, but the Brazilian seems to have learned his lesson. Alves wins by second-round submission.

Lightweights

Leonardo Santos (14-3-1) vs Kevin Lee (11-1): Santos is an enigmatic fighter. He is a capable counterstriker with a good understanding of range, but he does not throw nearly enough. He is a jiu-jitsu ace with solid takedowns, but he has lackluster takedown defense himself. He seems to pack a decent punch, but he has a tendency to fade late in fights. All of this means he is a dangerous opponent for Lee but not a very dependable one. Lee is superbly athletic, with fast hands and quick feet, strong wrestling in both the clinch and long range and a capable submission game of his own. He could not match Santos in a Brazilian jiu-jitsu match, but a fight favors his well-roundedness and consistency. Lee wins a unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Joe Proctor (11-3) vs Magomed Mustafaev (12-2): A student of Joe Lauzon, Proctor fights like a version of his mentor but without all the experience. The different pieces of Proctor’s game are solid. He is a hard kicker, a solid wrestler and a venomous submission grappler. What he lacks is smoothness and fluidity between phases. Like Lauzon, his striking defense leaves something to be desired. That makes Mustafaev something of a nightmare matchup for him. Mustafaev is a tremendous physical specimen with serious power and a ferocious clinch game. Then again, Mustafaev is inexperienced himself, and both his takedown defense and stamina have been questionable in the past. If Proctor can survive the first round, his chances of snatching a submission increase dramatically, but I do not see Mustafaev letting him last that long. The pick is Mustafaev by TKO in round one.

Lightweights

John Makdessi (13-4) vs Yancy Medeiros (11-3): Once known for his taekwondo kicking game, Makdessi has turned into an excellent boxer under the guidance of Tristar Gym’s Firas Zahabi. Footwork is the foundation of Makdessi’s game. He deftly takes small angles to avoid the punches of his opponent while lining up short right hands and left hooks of his own, staying busy with his jab in the meantime. Unfortunately, Makdessi’s move away from a kick-centric style may have made him more susceptible to kicks, something upon which Medeiros can capitalize. Medeiros lacks much of Makdessi’s subtlety -- particularly when it comes to defense -- but he makes up for it with doggedness, power and intelligent combination punching. Medeiros is also a powerful kicker, though at times he seems to love his spinning back kick a little too much. Medeiros will almost certainly get in some licks early on, but Makdessi’s movement, precision and adaptability should allow him to take over by the end of the first round. The pick is Makdessi by unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Court McGee (16-4) vs Marcio Alexandre Jr. (11-2): Polar opposites meet in this curtain jerker. Alexandre is a karate-based counterstriker, so much so that he was nicknamed “Lyoto” for his stylistic resemblance to former UFC light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida. He lays back, moves side to side and picks his shots, rarely throwing more than two strikes in succession. McGee, on the other hand, is completely reliant on his volume. The kickboxing version of a grinder, McGee throws punches and kicks from both sides, marching forward and mixing up his somewhat mechanical attacks constantly; and, of course, he wrestles, as well. Alexandre has talent, but he is far too hittable and nowhere near active enough to contend with McGee’s constant onslaught. McGee wins by third-round TKO.

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