Opinion: Guessing Game

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All the talk following UFC 315 centered on Jack Della Maddalena dethroning Belal Muhammad for the undisputed welterweight title—and understandably so. It was a hell of a fight and caught the mixed martial arts world off-guard. Chatter quickly began regarding the likelihood of lightweight champion Islam Makhachev moving up to 170 pounds to challenge Della Maddalena. We received confirmation of those plans when it was announced that Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira would face one another for the vacant lightweight crown at UFC 317.

Lost in all that hullabaloo was the question of what was going to happen at women’s flyweight following Valentina Shevchenko’s successful title defense against Manon Fiorot. If you were to dig in to what’s up with championship picture at 125 pounds, you would discover a very similar situation and one I think has more potential realistic scenarios.

Much of that is due to the division being held up for a long period of time while Shevchenko settled her three-fight trilogy with Alexa Grasso. It wasn’t just that they fought three times. There was also a long break in between the second and third fights while Shevchenko and Grasso took part in filming “The Ultimate Fighter.” Manon Fiorot was the clear-cut top contender to Shevchenko after she defeated Erin Blanchfield in a title eliminator in March 2024. However, that was over 13 months of waiting, and Blanchfield has since won a clear decision over former two-time strawweight champion Rose Namajunas. Now, she’s booked at the end of the month against Maycee Barber, who will enter their contest riding a six-fight winning streak over increasingly difficult competition. It would be hard to deny the victor a title shot against Shevchenko.

Of course, if all the buzz from the event remains in the air, it seems likely that happens. Earlier on the UFC 315 main card, Natalia Silva delivered a dominant performance over the aforementioned Grasso. The victory moved her to 7-0 in the UFC without any of her bouts proving to be all that close. It’s hard to say she shouldn’t be getting the next title shot, either.

However, there are others still who believe the next title shot shouldn’t go to either of those options. Weili Zhang has managed to dispose of all comers with ease since regaining her strawweight title. That has led to loud rumblings about the prospect of her moving up and trying her hand at a new division. After all, one can’t blame her for not wanting to cut those extra 10 pounds if she can avoid it. What to do, what to do?

The good thing is there aren’t any bad options here. No matter who Shevchenko fights next, it looks like it will be a competitive scrap. However, given Zhang is a reigning world champion at strawweight and there’s a worthy challenger in Virna Jandiroba waiting in the wings, it only makes sense to have her defend at least one more time while the established members of the flyweight division sort things out some more. Besides, while there’s no doubt Zhang has proven to be a dominant champion, she hasn’t proven to have the same type of pull as Makhachev and Topuria. Not that they’re Conor McGregor- or Ronda Rousey-level stars, but their level of pull is significantly greater than Zhang’s.

What are the differences between the other options? Silva’s resume might involve some smoke and mirrors. While Grasso was the champion as recently as last year, she hasn’t won a fight in over two years. Was her victory over Shevchenko a fluke? Given that Grasso’s legacy is far from written yet, I wouldn’t go that far. Silva’s other notable victory is over Jessica Andrade, who appears to be at the end of her rope, having succumbed to Jasmine Jasudavicius within a round at UFC 315.

Barber’s resume has just as many questions. Her best win is over Katlyn Cerminara, a former title challenger. However, Cerminara reached her peak over five years ago, and it has been three years since her last victory. Part of that is due to inactivity, but it’s still a questionable look at the very least. Of course, that’s likely to change if Barber can get a win over Blanchfield.

The victory that put Blanchfield on the map came against Andrade two years ago, but she has since picked up wins over Taila Santos and Namajunas. It’s fair to be skeptical of the Namajunas win, as “Thug Rose” hasn’t completely proven herself at 125 pounds. However, Santos was exceptionally close to dethroning Shevchenko and made it to the Professional Fighters League final in 2024 before falling to Dakota Ditcheva. Perhaps some would say losing to anyone outside of the Ultimate Fighting Championship is a negative mark, but Ditcheva looks like the Next Big Thing in women’s MMA, and it’s only a matter of time before she ends up in the UFC. Should Blanchfield beat Barber, she’ll probably have a stronger resume than Silva.

Of course, the UFC tends to look more at what’s going to sell. Who’s more deserving may not matter as much. Who’s more marketable is likely to play a bigger part. The UFC seems to believe that distinction belongs to Silva, as she has a much more affable personality than either Blanchfield or Barber. Blanchfield doesn’t do a lot on the mic to promote herself, and Barber’s abrasiveness has turned people off, though at least they feel something about her. That might be worth noting, as having a sweet disposition isn’t necessarily enough to push Silva over the top.

Whom Shevchenko gets next is not something I’m willing to predict until Blanchfield and Barber compete at the end of the month. If they have a real stinker, I believe it would solidify the shot for Silva. I’m also not willing to completely rule out the possibility of someone like Jasudavicius being a wild card out of nowhere. Regardless, speculation is one of the better aspects of being an MMA fan, and at the moment, there may not be a better division for it than women’s flyweight.