Prime Picks: UFC 304 ‘Edwards vs. Muhammad 2’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship will be doing its absolute best to thrill fans in Manchester, England, taking to a United Kingdom city other than London for the first time since 2018. The Co-op Live will be rocking on Saturday, as upwards of 22,000 fans will echo cheers and chants through the arena all night, and the deck is stacked for home-soil jubilation. Betting lines are predictably scattered, with plenty of heavy minus action for local favorites. Join the UFC 304 edition of Prime Picks as we do not expect a belt to change hands in the main attraction, suggest that might not be the case in the co-headliner and throw together an all-Britain parlay bounty.

STRAIGHT-UP CASH

Leon Edwards Wins and Over 2.5 Rounds (-185)

Much like the recent headliner involving Rose Namajunas and Tracy Cortez, this bundled line is available on some sportsbooks, and it takes some of the edge off a heavily favored combatant. The moneyline on Edwards retaining his welterweight throne against Belal Muhammad in their rematch is a shade too high at -250, so coupling in a time factor takes the bet to a more reasonable level. If one wishes to pass on picking one man against the other, the over of 4.5 rounds around -200 is palatable, although at the edge of value. Otherwise, there is upside in betting on the younger man—Edwards, 32, compared to Muhammad at 36—in a championship affair, especially one between two exceptionally durable athletes fully capable of engaging in a seven-round contest if that ever came to fruition.

To find the last fight that did not reach this over of 2.5 rounds for Edwards—with the previous no-contest with Muhammad being a betting push—look to UFC Fight Night 64 back in 2015, when Mirko Filipovic exacted revenge on Gabriel Gonzaga. “Rocky” is not a quick-strike finisher against foes at the top echelon of the sport. Rather, he is someone who computes and calculates as the bout progresses until he may find an opening, a la Kamaru Usman or Peter Sobotta. Fans complain about Edwards’ fighting style and how his matches tend to reach the final bell more often than not, and those same fans should try to capitalize on that tendency by betting in expectation of it.

On the other side of the equation, even if Muhammad can be beaten by a technical striker with stout defensive wrestling, those who do so generally do not smoke him right out of the gate. The first scrap saw Edwards in full control for the first five minutes, and although anything could have happened had no foul taken place, that type of one-sided effort is one that Edwards excels at. Competing at that pace for the remaining 20 minutes would have been no sweat for the Brit, as his status as the great 170-pound nullifier was secure and in full effect against Muhammad. It will take some significant retooling for Muhammad to get over that hump. If confidence in Edwards is not high enough to throw hard-earned money down on him, look no further than Bobby Green at -115 to knock the cheeky, mop-topped Paddy Pimblett’s head around.

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

STRAIGHT-UP PASS

Muhammad Mokaev (-160)

Before even getting into the particulars, there is no guarantee that this fight will happen. That goes beyond the normal unexpected injury or issue flareup that seems to occur more often than it used to and is specific to this bout entirely. For starters, slight underdog Manel Kape has not been the most reliable of competitors since joining the league in 2020. Six appearances in the last four-plus years is not an overly promising tally, and Kape has been the cause of at least three scratches on his ledger thus far. While not recently sharing photos of the Angolan enjoying feasts with friends or munching on giant ribs, it is far from a foregone conclusion that Kape will be able to reach 126 pounds on fight day. It does not help that the two have already tangled on fight week, resulting in what appears to be a moderately sized scratch or cut above Mokaev’s eyebrow.

The Dagestani, by way of England, has been as outspoken as ever concerning his aspirations and contract situation. He recently noted that this pairing with Kape spelled the end of his current UFC deal, and his hopes of a title shot and gripes with other challengers may suggest he is looking past an ultra-dangerous “Starboy.” Regarding in-cage activities, Kape’s takedown defense—the facet of his game that will likely be tested the most—has largely held up well against top-flight opposition in the talent-rich flyweight division. While some analyses might be overly simple, pointing to an encounter as a “striker vs. grappler matchup,” it rings truer than ever for Mokaev vs. Kape. Steer clear of Mokaev and perhaps this flyweight tilt entirely, as there are better options not primed for pre-fight drama.

’DOG WILL HUNT

Curtis Blaydes (+290)

Perhaps because of how easily he blew through Marcin Tybura and Sergei Pavlovich, bettors are firmly on the side of Liverpool’s Tom Aspinall in the UFC 304 co-main event. It is no set of flukes that have boosted Aspinall to the pinnacle of the heavyweight division, as he averages the shortest fight time (2:10) of any big man ever to set foot in the Octagon. The Brit, now known as “Honey Badger,” is a marauder with crushing power and elite submission prowess, and the adage “it only takes one at that weight” holds even truer when it comes to Aspinall. While Blaydes is susceptible to getting blitzed, he also holds stellar one-shot ability and the best wrestling the weight class has seen since Cain Velasquez.

There are a few major questions regarding the interim beltholder: What happens when he competes past six minutes when going full blast, and how will he fare when running into an obstacle that makes him fight off the back foot? If Blaydes succeeds in putting Aspinall on his back, he will be the first in the UFC to do so, but that has not stopped him before. Should he get past the initial blitz, deposit the Liverpudlian to the mat and start unleashing ground-and-pound or at least maintain control for several minutes, the gas tank of Aspinall may quickly come into play. Blaydes is fully capable of giving as much as he gets, and the only men to put him down are Francis Ngannou, Derrick Lewis and Sergei Pavlovich—nary a pillow-fisted gentleman among them. Aspinall could add his name to the list, but the danger Blaydes presents and his demonstrated ability to go five grueling rounds make him at least worth a flier at these odds.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION:

Nathaniel Wood (-430)

Molly McCann (-350)

Michael Parkin (-280)

Total Odds: +115

Themes add a little flair to accumulators, and in the case of UFC 304’s, an All-Britain three-piece is as choice as can be. As the promotion does sometimes, especially on the preliminary portions of events, matches are made where home-country combatants are given winnable matchups that predictably close as heavy favorites. It does not always work out for the locals—at UFC 297 in Canada, all seven male Canucks got shellacked by foreign opposition—but betting favorites win about two-thirds of their fights. Wood, who sees the widest line in his favor of the 14 bouts on the billing, will lock down the parlay. Eight years younger, with durability and higher-than-average energy reserves, Wood can defuse the rampaging Daniel Pineda and his 100% finish rate.

When it comes to the matchmaking of the preliminary strawweight affair involving McCann, the UFC did her a solid by matching her much lighter than Erin Blanchfield on the latter’s home soil. Fresh off the first submission win of her career in an unnecessary rematch with Diana Belbita, “Meatball” gets another softball in the form of Bruna Brasil. By reaching the organization in 2023, Brasil did not surpass the toughest competition on the Brazilian circuit, marking wins over inexperienced or .500 fighters until she was gifted a matchup against Marnic Mann on Dana White’s Contender Series. With wins over names like Ariane Lipski and Luana Carolina on her ledger, McCann has already defeated more all-around skilled adversaries, making this borderline squash match one that can be slotted into the accumulator without concern.

While the company is still on the fence about whether Parkin will develop into a top-flight heavyweight, the book is close to being written on Poland’s Lukasz Brzeski. Although the Krakow native did slip past Valter Walker to earn his first UFC win, it was far from convincing and potentially more indicative of Walker’s low ceiling than Brzeski’s rising from the ashes. The win scored Brzeski an extension on his deal, as Contender Series contracts tend to be for four fights, but that could be partly due to a severe lack of bodies in the heaviest men’s division. Even if the stopping power for “Mick” has dried up as competition has improved, his ability to go 15 minutes without keeling over has been a reliable enough weapon to get past lower-level opposition in the UFC thus far. With decent volume for a man his size and the ability to lean on his better-than-expected wrestling if need be, Parkin can shut Brzeski down and start the night off strong.