Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 208 ‘Blaydes vs. Aspinall’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship goes across the pond again for a London show, one built to treat the local fans. A pair of pick ‘ems sprinkle a lineup that has something for everybody, but its most exciting action comes in a series of very live underdogs. This UFC Fight Night 208 edition of Prime Picks focuses on three of those dangerous dogs plus a flier on one more to spoil the party for a popular home country competitor.

Curtis Blaydes (+117)
It may come as a surprise that Blaydes, a known quantity with 15 UFC appearances under his belt, clocks in a bit over two years older than surging prospect-turned-contender Tom Aspinall. Given the relative age of heavyweight, Blaydes still firmly resides as one of the young guns compared to the elder guard of the Stipe Miocics and Derrick Lewises – those two 39 and 37, respectively. Even with the division’s takedown record firmly under lock and key, and Blaydes as the possessor of the most control time in UFC heavyweight history, bettors are extremely high on Aspinall. Blaydes has substantially improved his striking to make him a threat on the feet as well, so at plus money, “Razor” is a choice option.

The lone men to crack Blaydes’ near impenetrable chin are perhaps two of the heaviest hitters in the history of the sport in Francis Ngannou and Lewis. Renowned brawler Mark Hunt clocked him early, and Blaydes was still able to keep his wits about him and stick to his game plan. To date, it has taken a Herculean effort to beat Blaydes, either by putting him away with one brutal strike that would fell any man on Earth that absorbed it, or by pounding him so badly that the doctors could barely recognize him. With plenty of three-round experience and one trip to the 25-minute mark, Blaydes has ridden out the storms of great opponents and come out on top most of the time. His current adversary, on the other hand, has never reached nine minutes in a pro fight. This favors the American wrestler more and more as every minute passes.

Question marks still loom for the Brit, who celebrates a 100% finish rate including five impressive wins in the UFC. The only fighter to even attempt to take him down in the Octagon thus far Sergey Spivak, who could not put Aspinall on his back. Spivak is a far cry from the powerful Blaydes, and Aspinall may find his takedown defense tested early. Blaydes made a statement in his last time out by exclusively throwing down with talented boxer Chris Daukaus and emerged victorious, and if he tries this approach again, Aspinall could excel. Conventional wisdom dictates that top-control wrestlers struggle when put on their back, and if Aspinall is able to reverse a takedown effort and plant Blaydes on the canvas, he will almost certainly shine. Even when Blaydes has been taken down thus far, he does not stay there for long, hunting for sweeps and even relying on explosive movement to change things up. The favored Aspinall will have to make sure to focus on position over submission, or Blaydes can turn him over and shred him with elbows. The ground superiority goes to Blaydes, who can strongly fight off any submission tossed his way, which makes him wholly worthwhile as the underdog.

Jordan Leavitt (+215)
While a full-throated endorsement for Blaydes is entirely reasonable given his body of work in the UFC cage, the same cannot entirely be said about “The Monkey King.” The matchmaking is obvious in this lightweight affair, as Leavitt’s striking leaves a great deal to be desired. Both Luigi Vendramini and Rodrigo Vargas stung Paddy Pimblett when he faced them, leaving fans wondering what would happen when “The Baddy” took on a more effective striker. This will not be answered in the slightest, as the majority of strikes on the feet to come from Leavitt will be leg kicks. Leavitt would have been more at home a decade-plus ago in the sport as a true ground specialist, able to threaten with any kind of submission when he so chooses. It may be a bit of a flier, but the underdog could catch or surprise Pimblett should this fight hit the mat.

Like many submission specialists of the past, Leavitt’s ability to drag the fight to the canvas is not elite. Demian Maia – not that Leavitt is being compared to Maia for anything other than for this parallel – struggled to ground opponents, and would sometimes settle for getting put on his back so that the fight could enter his world any way possible. Ahead of Leavitt’s last win by tapout, for example, he pulled guard before setting up the inverted triangle choke. It will be up to Pimblett to keep the fight on the feet, where he can work his way in and likely outland Leavitt by a significant margin. If Pimblett can stay away from tie-ups, trip attempts and guard pulls, he will look every bit of the -255 favorite. “The Baddy” is no slouch should things go to the canvas, and even can threaten with his own flying submission for fun, but Leavitt’s displayed ability to set something up from anywhere in on the mat make him a possible option to either snag something or do enough on the ground to steal two rounds and eek out a win. The fans will not be thrilled should this occur, and the alternative of Pimblett wins inside distance at -120 would not be a waste if one thinks Leavitt has no chance.

Alexander Gustafsson (+175)
Inactivity and confusion about weight classes make former title challenger and current UFC Hall of Famer Gustafsson a substantial underdog in his battle with Nikita Krylov. It will be nearly two years to the day since “The Mauler” has competed, and he will be officially back in his old stomping ground of 205 pounds since June 2019. At the age of 35 with plenty of fight miles on him including a pair of classics against Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier, Gustafsson may be on his back nine as he comes into this fight on a three-fight skid. Inactivity has plagued the Swede, who has averaged just one fight a year dating back to 2013. When looking at his resume, however, the only men to ever beat him are the best of the best: Jones, Cormier, Fabricio Werdum, Anthony Smith, Anthony Johnson and Phil Davis. His foe Nikita Krylov has not reached that echelon of competitor, and if Gustafsson looks even somewhat like his old form that pounded Glover Teixeira or beat up Jan Blachowicz, he serves as a tantalizing underdog.

Krylov is not blowing the doors off with his own fight frequency level either, as he has fought just six times since rejoining the organization in late 2018. Still, he does have more pro fights in the last decade than he celebrates years on this planet, and that can catch up with a fighter known to many as a “glass cannon” with about two rounds of cardio and extreme offense. To knock off Gustafsson early, it has taken a barrage from prime “Rumble Johnson” or a savvy submission setup from Werdum, neither of which Krylov has mustered at a particularly high level. The man formerly known as “Al Capone” has shown a ceiling time and time again, where he can hang with the Ovince St. Preuxs of the world but struggles against even a Misha Cirkunov-type. As long as Gustafsson has not collapsed completely, he is about as live an underdog as any on the card.

Paul Craig Wins Inside Distance (+185)
When pointing out live underdogs, perhaps none could be more beloved than Craig, who has a penchant for snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. Like discussed with Blaydes above, one has to put Craig all the way out in order to thwart his comeback abilities. Whether the historic triumph with one second left after taking a horrific beating from Magomed Ankalaev, or the recent performance against Krylov where he weathered the early storm to set up a submission, Craig is always in there and always dangerous. Meanwhile, Volkan Oezdemir has shown the kind of destructive power that can switch Craig’s lights off, but his vaunted “boops” have tapered off. If he does not get clipped rushing headlong into the fray – an entirely likely outcome, with the comeback of Oezdemir by TKO/KO at +130 the obvious alternative – “Bearjew” possesses the chops to drag the fight to the ground and impose his will.

Exactly half of Oezdemir’s 10 UFC opponents have taken him down, but Cormier is the only one to succeed multiple times. “No Time” has no time for playing on the ground unless he sends someone there with his fists, and his get-up game is fairly impressive. The onus will be on Craig to make the most of the occasion should he take Oezdemir down, unless he wants to do like the above-mentioned Leavitt and pull guard – this is not outside the realm of possibility for Craig, who holds the most triangle choke submission wins in UFC history. Oezdemir is a cleaner, faster striker with better footwork, while Craig is a lumbering attacker that needs the fight to hit the mat at all costs. In this stylistic clash, the grappler at plus money, in addition to the boost for him keeping his 100% finish rate intact, is not to be missed. Fans may shout that he can’t keep getting away with it, but this has every marking of another rabbit getting pulled out of the hat for the daring Scotsman.