Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 223 ‘Dern vs. Hill’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday will go about fulfilling part of its contractual obligations with this UFC Fight Night offering at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Exactly two competitors ranked inside the Top 15 of their division will face off, and that comes in the main attraction. Other than one outlier, every match of the dozen set to play out features odds closer than -250, and there are multiple coinflips scattered throughout the lineup. Join the UFC Fight Night 223 edition of Prime Picks, where we traverse its shallow waters for a clear striker-versus-grappler affair, make a leap of faith for an aging contender and roll the dice on a New Englander to pick up a rare victory in the Octagon.

Mackenzie Dern (-170)

In the majority of matches where grappling specialists square off against opponents who have their best success on the feet, the grapplers tends to have the advantage as long as they have the ability to move the fight where they want it. In the case of this UFC Fight Night 223 headliner, Dern’s takedown success percentage may sound comedically inept at 11%. However, when coupled with the fact it only takes one, it makes it a much more dangerous proposition. Dern is far from a Merab Dvalishvili-type wrestler with a lather-rinse-repeat strategy of needing 11 takedowns to stall out opponents and wear them out. Instead, the 2015 Abu Dhabi Combat Club Submission Wrestling World Championships gold medalist is dangerous as soon as the two even lock hands on one another, let alone move to a more horizontal position. While Angela Hill has the wherewithal to hang with Dern on the mat and attempt to escape, she will have to be perfect for 25 full minutes. On the other hand, Dern has to snag her just once in this smaller cage, and it could be over. This makes Dern the rightful and still valuable favorite.

Dern’s 11% success rate underlies the fact that she has landed just five total takedowns inside the Octagon officially, all while recording four submissions. So singularly obsessed to bring the fight into her world, Dern actively pulls guard or throws her opponent into intentionally advantageous situations so she can start pursuing sweeps and reversals. Stark are the numbers on paper, as Dern has never even accidentally pulled off a knockout, even by injury or getting a dominant position and pounding someone out. Meanwhile, Hill has officially attempted just two submissions in her 22 outings in the UFC, and she has never pulled one off as a pro. It will behoove Hill to treat the floor like lava, and she will need to stay away from grappling exchanges where she cannot just land one knee and get out. Prolonged tie-ups may lead to the Alliance MMA rep hitting her back, which would the worst thing for her.

In seemingly every Dern matchup, she is able to take control for at least one round and most likely take her opponent’s back. Ladies like Marina Rodriguez, Tecia Torres and Xiaonan Yan all fell victim to Dern’s dangerous attack, which tends to come in the second round. However, all three survived the danger by hanging on, fighting smart and not wrenching themselves out only to learn it was a trap all along. Hill’s last submission loss came in early 2019, when Randa Markos easily hit a body lock takedown and did work until the armbar materialized. Four years and 13 fights have transpired since then, although the number of pure submission threats Hill has fought in that stretch is practically limited to Virna Jandiroba. Although Jandiroba handled Hill, she could not land the submission. With five rounds to work and those extra 10 minutes to pull something off, the match is there for the taking for Dern, as long as she does not gas early. She can win either by tapout or by banking at least three grappling-heavy rounds where the bell rings with her either having achieved full mount or having progressed to Hill’s back. Should a bettor’s confidence lie in Hill because of the length of the match or because of her speed and timing—she is 38 in a division where very few fighters make it to that age—then her winning on the scorecards at +225 may be the best alternate line.

DOUBLE PLAY (-115)

Emily Ducote-Lupita Godinez Goes to Decision (-300)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz-Vanessa Demopoulos Goes to Decision (-250)

In every edition of Prime Picks, we try to shine some light on an underdog or, at the very least, a pick’em fighter who merits some attention. At this event, those seem to be few and far between: Andre Fialho is a technical striker who has shown recent issues with his chin, Maheshate Hayisaer could get his chin checked by Viacheslav Borshchev, Ilir Latifi exhibits next to no offense lately and Victoria Leonardo as a +600-700 underdog may not even get a flier callout given her reasonable path to victory or lack thereof. Instead, we have to mash together two fight results in order to get that nearly even money, and that two-leg parlay still does not quite reach that mark. It is close enough, and based on the fight histories of the four women involved in the two bouts, a pair of decisions lumped together for one line is worth it.

The highest finish rate of any of the four sits at 58%, with Ducote getting it done inside the distance in seven of her 12 victories. Her recent knockouts have been against solid but far smaller opposition in Danielle Taylor and Alesha Zappitella, and Godinez has not proven to be susceptible to getting tagged like that yet. It does not hurt that Godinez has heard the final bell after 10 of her 12 professional outings, including six of seven UFC fights. In the other bout, it is also about playing the odds. If Kowalkiewicz-Demopoulos ends by stoppage, what is the most likely outcome? Demopoulos levering a submission could be it, considering an aging Jessica Penne landed an armbar on Kowalkiewicz not long ago. While the tricks of “Lil Monster” have worked against earlier opponents, they may not be as effective on the larger stage against someone of the caliber of a former title challenger in Kowalkiewicz. Thirty minutes of combat are most likely for the two tilts at 120 pounds and strawweight, and the horns blaring at their ends will sound like cash registers when it is all over.

Diego Ferreira (-150)

At any given time, Michael Johnson could put on a performance worthy of Top 10-caliber status. His problem is maintaining that momentum. When he hangs up his gloves one day, the resume of “The Menace” will be one of head-scratching majesty. He has prevailed against Dustin Poirier, Tony Ferguson and Edson Barboza, among others, while opponents like Paul Sass, Darren Elkins and Clay Guida have bamboozled him. For the first time in two years, Johnson has the chance to put himself on a winning streak, as he previously topped Mark Diakiese in December on the scorecards. A razor-close defeat to Jamie Mullarkey potentially came due to a lack of volume when it mattered most, and this waiting version of Johnson loses fights he should and could win. While Ferreira has been struggling and might have passed the cliff that is the age barrier of 36 or 37, his well-rounded game and ample time to clear his head might give him the edge. Given that Johnson still makes lapses in judgement that give opponents the edge, a favored Ferreira may be the right pick.

The confidence in the Brazilian by way of South Texas is not sky-high, as he has not had his hand raised since January 2020. A trio of setbacks in 2021, all to top-tier opponents, made him take some time to reassess his fighting future. After just over 18 months away, Ferreira is returning to try to at least get one more win before calling it a career. The maddeningly inconsistent Johnson may be the perfect person for him, because he can bring it and really put the screws to Ferreira in a hurry. On the other side, “The Menace” gets in his own head, as evidenced by his deflating submission defeat to Thiago Moises in 2020; after trouncing Moises in the first round, he succumbed to an early leg lock. The value in Ferreira might cap around -150 given his absence and struggles, compared to Johnson’s relative successes. With Johnson’s comeback around +125 to +130, that is a suitable option if all faith is lost in Ferreira.

Nick Fiore (-120)

If you are looking for a play this week in the plus-money territory, digging a little deeper to suggest that Fiore wins this matchup by stoppage at +185 may be the way to go. The New Hampshire native, with a full training camp under his belt, will be squaring off against the UFC’s wunderkind, Chase Hooper. The youngster known as “The Dream” is moving up to lightweight, as his gangly 6-foot-1 frame with a decent-enough reach may be growing into his final form. While Hooper is just 23 years of age, he already seems to have settled into a known quantity, with positively ghastly striking and a need to get the fight to the ground so he can do work. His takedown rate may be higher than Dern’s aforementioned 11%, but he will need to ground Fiore, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, and do what several men, including Jay Ellis (twice), could not. Fiore, a grappler himself, can hit surprisingly hard, and this is becoming evident it is Hooper’s weakness. Should the New England Cartel product keep things on the feet and advertise the price of admission, it is his to win going away.

Fiore did find out quickly and repeatedly over the course of 15 minutes that life in the UFC was a far cry from the days of Combat Zone, where he could toss around men with many more losses than wins with ease. Mateusz Rebecki, far from the top echelon of the 155-pound category, dragged him back to earth and pounded away for three rounds. Much of that came from Rebecki’s raw power, as he could suddenly blitz into action and slam Fiore to the floor with a double-leg takedown. Hooper does not have that strength at his disposal and instead is slicker and much more of an opportunist. It remains to be seen how Hooper adjusts to the new weight class, where everyone hits that much harder and presents just a bit stronger. If Fiore remains confident, not only in his hands but in his ability to stay out of danger should things hit the canvas, he can overcome Hooper and do some damage. Should Hooper ground him early and often, however, it could become a slog where both fighters play offense on the floor but neither can go anywhere. With the crushing Steve Garcia loss in such recent memory, Hooper may think twice about getting hit, and Fiore can take advantage of that.