Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 226 ‘Gane vs. Spivak’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship may not treat a Paris show like a blockbuster, but it has made certain to deposit as many French fighters as possible on the billing this Saturday at Accor Arena. In an effort to keep the card with over 10 bouts, the promotion ripped apart some fights to make new ones on short notice, thereby blowing up some decent betting options and parlays. Making lemonade out of lemons, this UFC Fight Night 226 edition of Prime Picks will only suggest one French fighter, pitches an underdog play for a recent champ and tries to rake it in on a late replacement smash-’em-up derby.

Ciryl Gane (-175)

The UFC may have made a mistake in how it put together the main and co-main events. Of these two fights—Gane vs. Sergey Spivak or Manon Fiorot vs. Rose Namajunas—which matchup would be better served as a five-round encounter? Which pairing would we learn more about, given the extra championship rounds? Heavyweights with relatively high finish rates where one has the propensity to gas out if he cannot get the early stoppage or top flyweight contenders that may see one challenge for gold in her very next appearance? The UFC still believes fight fans love the heavyweights and their higher percentage of knockouts; therefore, it places the No. 2 and No. 7 big men ahead of the third-ranked flyweight and former 115-pound champ. As a result, this potentially awkward stylistic clash and the bet that follows could get slammed on its head in 15 seconds, but the Frenchman on French soil is hard not to wager on.

Spivak may be one of the most improved combatants on the roster, relative to how he began his tenure and transformed his physique and his approach. No longer a lumbering, billowing takedown-or-bust fighter, the Moldovan has tightened up his game and his skills as he has aged. Still one of the youngest contenders in the division at 28 years old, he may just now be entering his physical prime, and that could spell trouble for the rest of the division. In his last three fights, Spivak has notched three stoppages, all while recording an impressive 15 takedowns to get there. If Gane’s takedown defense and get-up game are still limited, this could be a wrestling clinic for “The Polar Bear” that makes a bet on the Frenchman look silly. However, to employ that tactic, he will have to close the distance and trap the rangier striker and force immediate grappling exchanges.

“Bon Gamin” cannot afford to get put on his back should he hope to get his hand raised. At -175 odds, Gane might be at the upper range of the reasonable betting line, given the avenue to victory that Spivak can pursue. There is a difference between the only two men to land takedowns on Gane—Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou—and what Spivak brings to the table. Ngannou used his durability and ferocious striking to get in tight and toss Gane around like a sack of potatoes, while Jones may be one of the greatest wrestlers and overall talents in the history of the sport. Spivak cannot afford to get dinged on the outside, eating jabs and push kicks that Gane will almost certainly spam to keep him away. It will be up to Spivak to either try to catch kicks that come his direction or simply swarm his way through strikes to invade Gane’s personal space. If he cannot get Gane down early to send a message or at least tire him out in the first two rounds by forcing him to fight off attempts, he will get chewed up by the MMA Factory rep’s piercingly accurate strikes and lofty volume. The younger fighter could make this play silly if he plants Gane on his back and starts pounding on him. Still, Gane can approach this fight smart and fight to his own advantages while not allowing Spivak to shut him down.

Rose Namajunas (+170)

There are many questions about the former strawweight queen, including her motivation and her physicality up in weight for the first time in her career. Namajunas will have three rounds—although in a just world, she and her foe should have been booked for five—to get her bearings, figure out the puzzle that is France’s Fiorot and do what 10 women in a row, including multiple top contenders in two weight classes, have not. “Thug Rose” will be the smaller woman, in terms of frame and likely overall muscle mass, but she should be bringing blazing speed with her. Namajunas’ striking has developed by leaps and bounds from the days where she would rather jump for a flying armbar, and she should not be slept on in this pairing. While Fiorot might be the rightful favorite, given that her last three wins came over Mayra Bueno Silva, Jennifer Maia and Katlyn Chookagian, the wideness of the odds sitting at over -200 gives some value to the underdog.

MMA is a sport of “what have you done for me lately,” and some fans have forgotten the trio of masterful performances put in by Namajunas against Jessica Andrade and Weili Zhang—two extremely powerful ladies. Instead, some might recall the Milwaukee native’s inactive shadowboxing session against rival Carla Esparza that cost her the belt and prompted her relocation to this division. Namajunas has taken over a year off to get her head right and properly move up to flyweight, and this can work to her advantage. Fiorot has competed just once in that span, so it is not a matter of Namajunas being away while her counterpart maintained a Kevin Holland-esque schedule. Namajunas holds a strange UFC pattern of wins and losses, which began in her organizational debut in the final of “The Ultimate Fighter 20.” A loss was followed by three straight wins, with one first-round finish, and then another defeat. This has continued through her entire tenure. Like rules, these patterns are meant to be broken, and nothing lasts forever. However, if this is the championship-level version of Namajunas, “The Beast” will have her hands full as she tries to counter the sharp striking and understated grappling that “Thug Rose” brings to the table.

Volkan Oezdemir (-180)

As the years have progressed, the so-called devastating power of Oezdemir has gone a bit overstated. No one can take away his two lightning-quick knockouts of Misha Cirkunov and Jimi Manuwa that earned him a crack at gold, but he has since authored just one finish—over an aging Ilir Latifi that subsequently shifted gears to heavyweight. He has been a victim of his early success, as he fought for the belt in his fourth UFC appearance and has done nothing but compete against top-ranked contenders ever since. The promotion was not about to do the Swiss veteran any favors when they placed Oezdemir opposite Azamat Murzakanov. It was his lucky day when Murzakanov withdrew and Oezdemir gained the matchup against Bogdan Guskov. This is a tailor-made pairing for the 33-year-old Oezdemir to stage a vintage performance, as Guskov will give him exactly the kind of fight that should allow him to thrive.

The moneyline on Oezdemir is still worthwhile given his opponent’s perceived durability, but it would not be out of the question to drill down and grab him by knockout at +100. Oezdemir draws a man some have suggested is a less evolved version of himself, in that Guskov is a berserker who charges at his foes and possesses ruthless power. While Guskov sports four knockouts in under five minutes in a row, the level of opposition leaves something to be desired. Additionally, the last man to overcome him did so by blasting him in the opening frame, as Vyacheslav Vasilevsky stood in front of him fearlessly, pressuring forward and avoiding counters. It was the jab that ultimately spelled his undoing, and Vasilevsky iced an off-balance Guskov with a well-placed right hand. The Uzbekistan-born fighter keeps his hands perilously low, and a quick-blitzing striker like Oezdemir can feast on that weakness. While the newcomer may hit hard, a number of his stoppages came by thwarting takedowns and drumming out opponents on the ground. “No Time” has no time for shooting in or searching for a body lock; instead, it will be a matter of fists meeting faces. In that type of exchange, Oezdemir’s noted durability and hand speed will get him back on track.

Joselyne Edwards (-115)

To have to dip this low on the card, options have to be extremely sparse. Other options we pass up—like the main card tilt between Benoit St. Denis and Thiago Moises or the obviously favored Farid Basharat—leave us with few alternatives. It may be a “hold your nose”-type of pick, but we cannot rise to the level of self-sabotage by advising against betting on this card as a whole. Additionally, it might be a selection best made following the weigh-ins, as Edwards has struggled to reach the 136-pound mark on numerous occasions of late. Despite all that may be against her, Edwards has a flustering, judge-convincing fighting style where punches in bunches have led her to victory time and time again. Nora Cornolle has not yet displayed a penchant for grappling that will give Edwards pause, so this has the makings of a kickboxing contest that goes all three rounds. If one does not wish to pick Edwards outright, the line on this fight going to decision is -150.

Regional competition in the women’s 135-pound division is quite limited, and Cornolle has managed to rack up six wins over ladies that sport a combined record of 22-14, give or a take. Edwards will be the best fighter that the muay thai expat has ever encountered by a wide margin, and she can hang in tough battles when many others would fold. Cornolle will have to rely on footwork and press the pace, but more importantly, she will likely need to hurt Edwards or at least sting her to come out ahead. As long as she does not need to fight off takedown attempts or find her footing again, Edwards relishes exchanges with combinations and all the leg kicks she can muster. “La Pantera” has gone the distance in all six of her previous UFC outings, while Cornolle lost the only time she heard the final bell in an MMA match. Unless Edwards gets caught with something she cannot handle early, she can cruise and put up a high pace that might not be thrilling but remains effective. As a pick-’em, Edwards has a number of advantages that should give her the edge.