Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 227 ‘Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship celebrates Mexican Independence Day in the logical choice of Las Vegas, although it will post up in its usual pay-per-view joint of the T-Mobile Arena instead of the UFC Apex or the Virgin Hotels. A championship rematch will come as one of the more closely contested affairs from a betting perspective, as the lines are otherwise quite lopsided with eight of 11 bouts featuring someone favored at -250 or higher. Join the “Noche UFC” edition of Prime Picks as we expect a title change in the marquee matchup and lobby for not one but two reasonable upsets on the main card.

Valentina Shevchenko (-165)

To put it frank, getting Shevchenko against any opponent at 125 or 135 pounds with a line of -175 is a steal. She initially opened around -250, so there has been some respect on the new champion to shift it somewhat in Alexa Grasso’s favor. This makes some sense, given that Grasso is the only woman to ever tap out the former flyweight queen. While the end result is the most important aspect of that previous matchup, some bettors still remember the successes of Shevchenko up until she made an egregious error in Round 4. Up two rounds to one on the official scorecards, Shevchenko’s grappling made the difference, until Grasso turned the tables in a hurry. Considering Shevchenko closed at prohibitive odds in their first pairing in March, getting her under -200 in revenge pairing is unquestionably worth pursuing.

Grasso’s boxing was on point, and perhaps a pure boxing match against the Kyrgyzstan native might have gone her way. However, this is MMA, and Shevchenko reminded her foe of this by repeatedly grounding Grasso in the second and third rounds to rack up considerable control time while doing some damage. The opening frame did go Grasso’s way as she stung the champ with combinations, even if momentum began to shift in the waning seconds when Shevchenko dumped the Mexican fighter on her face. It will be up to Grasso to shore up her takedown defense, or at least increase her urgency to get back up when she hits the mat. Leon Edwards shut down Kamaru Usman in their rematch after their shocking upset, and anything and everything is possible.

Arguably the most underrated element of Shevchenko’s game is her offensive grappling. Whether through forcing threatening exchanges in the clinch or by securing surprisingly slick takedowns in the blink of an eye, she can further open up her kickboxing by making Grasso think about takedowns and ground-and-pound. Hardly a fish out of water when put on her back, Grasso did stay busy and attempt to force scrambles or kick the champion off of her. The problem for her was her adversary, as Shevchenko’s top game is no joke. It will likely take another shocking mistake from “Bullet” in order for Grasso to spring this upset, and Shevchenko should have learned her lesson of attempting a spinning back kick in close range. This was not a matter of a fighter “leaving their prime,” as Grasso caught lightning in a bottle. Considering the betting line for this headliner, the now-title challenger is still a worthy investment.

Kevin Holland (+122)

For all the fantastic opponents that Holland has faced since joining the UFC in 2018 – 19 foes, with many in the top 15 – it may come as a surprise that he has never once been dropped with strikes. Even when hurt, the recoverability of “Trailblazer” is such that he can shake it off in a hurry and come back firing. Beyond the superior technical skills of Stephen Thompson, Holland has largely exceled against “strike first, ask questions later” combatants. Defensive wrestling is his weakness, and Jack Della Maddalena is almost certainly not about to test that. Currently a betting underdog despite an eight-inch reach advantage and his own offensive grappling weapons that he brings to the table, Holland is a prime candidate to spring an upset and put an end to the win streak of the Aussie.

Both of these fighters last competed in July, with Holland stepping in the Octagon at the end of that month while “JDM” settled for a mid-July appearance. Of these two, Holland prefers an ultra-busy schedule, with the fewest number of fights in a calendar year three, back in 2021 (and 2016). This will be his third fight in 2023, and he plans on having one more depending on his health on Saturday. Judging by his last outing, when late replacement Bassil Hafez took it to him and surprised Maddalena with his effective pressure and unexpected power, Holland can achieve all of that and more. Maddalena cannot allow Holland to get off from afar, and he should stay busy with leg kicks for the lankier man while not hesitating to beat on the body. If Holland’s head is made of sterner stuff, the midsection may be the best way to become the first man to stop “Trailblazer” with strikes. Should Maddalena not get inside or slow the Texan down at any point of the fight, Holland will prove to be a savvy bet.

Terrence Mitchell (+475)

The “featured fight of the night” currently sports the widest betting line of any of the 11 remaining matchups. Both fighters are coming off of deflating losses that likely showed their ceilings, which makes the betting line of Raul Rosas Jr., who turns 19 in less than a month, preposterous at -800. In context, the first fight between the dominant champ Shevchenko and Grasso saw Shevchenko close as a -900 betting favorite. Rosas may be a solid wrestler with decent scrambles and a better-than-expected killer instinct, but Christian Rodriguez showed that if Rosas primary strategy does not work, his playbook does not feature another chapter. Mitchell may be the right man to allow Rosas to showcase his skills, but this underdog-or-bust bantamweight battle gives too good of a price to ignore.

Strength of schedule has not been “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 24 final pick Mitchell’s strong suit. Alaska Fighting Championship leaves plenty to be desired, as for example the last four men he finished to reach TUF combined for a record of 2-4 – and he was a champion in that organization. It is a far cry to quickly strangle 3-3 Justin Cook, compared to toeing the line against unbeaten slugger Cameron Saaiman. It remains to be seen if Mitchell is able to record a single win over decent competition, and he will not likely be favored to do so. Given that Rosas’ striking is barely a means to an end, and that he is singularly focused in taking fight to the ground and snatching up a neck or exposed limb, there is a chance for Mitchell to do the same. The Alaskan should have practically no fear on the feet, and if he can stuff takedowns, he could make the younger fighter pay for his attempts – or as commentator Laura Sanko called, “advertise the price of admission.” The 18-year-old could sling Mitchell to the mat and throttle him in half a round, but the potential for Mitchell to do the same at such massive plus money could be worth a flier.

Double Play (-171)

Lupita Godinez vs. Elise Reed Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-400)
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson vs. Marnic Mann Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-375)

Considering about half of the fights on the card feature a betting favorite at -350 or above, and just two are featured under -150 thus far, it may take some creativity or boldness to come out ahead. On Prime Picks, it is a little of column A, and a little of column B. A small time-based parlay is the final recommended option, when it comes to a pair of strawweight tilts on the prelims. Both suggested fights should reach the midpoint of the second round, making this brief accumulator worthwhile. In the first, Godinez has hit this mark in 11 of her 13 pro fights, including all but one of her trips to the UFC cage. On the other side, 70% of Reed’s bouts have reached that specific time, and their finish rates of 20% and 29% make this over quite reasonable when pair with another line.

In the case of two debuting fighters, anything could happen. Conscience – or in this case, the bright, shining lights of the T-Mobile Arena – doth make cowards of us all. Adrenaline dumps, freeze-ups or something unexpected could crop up. However, pushing past the intangible and unplanned flareups, Knutsson and Mann have the makings of producing a fight that does not end quickly. Beyond a knockout in her sophomore appearance, Knutsson has reached the final bell in her other pro fights. Mann, who suffered her lone career defeat on Dana White's Contender Series when Bruna Brasil punted her, has also fought past the halfway point of her last five bouts. Quick-strike stopping power or sudden submission prowess is not the strong point of either woman, and they have had to work for it to get their hand raised. As long as both of these fights hit 2:31 of Round 2, this simple but effective parlay can bring decent returns.