Prime Picks: UFC Vegas 102 ‘Cannonier vs. Rodrigues’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship shows no signs of slowing down with its barrage of middleweight main attractions, and one more joins the table on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Some late switcheroos have this fight card in flux, and betting odds are predictably all over the map. Join the UFC Vegas 102 edition of Prime Picks as we double the risk with a pair of parlays poised for primo payouts.

Jared Cannonier (+200)

The former title challenger is 40, and next month, he will turn 41. While most divisions are historically unkind to the elderly, the highest three—not counting super heavyweight—allow for a bit more wiggle room for the aging competitor to thrive. It may be a bit less forgiving at 185 pounds than 265, but Cannonier has shown to be a success story among the wreckage. It is only the against the truly elite of the division that he has stumbled, and Gregory Rodrigues has not shown himself yet worthy of that top echelon of the weight class. “The Killa Gorilla” has surpassed men better on paper than Rodrigues, so as long as he does not make a big mistake and sticks around too long to get his block knocked off, he has better than a 2-to-1 chance against him to get the job done.

There is no doubt a gear has slipped for Cannonier, as he could not turn the corner against Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho. Rarely the man with the higher volume, the Alaskan makes up for it by hitting hard enough that the registerable impact scales in his favor in the damage criteria. Unfortunately for Cannonier, that is even more the case for “RoboCop,” who tends to throw punches and ask questions later. Until he has a complete in-cage disaster where he appears flustered early and never gets going before getting blasted, the expectation is still that Cannonier can compete at a UFC level. His jab might be his best weapon to open other attacks up while also opening up some of the ample scar tissue on the Brazilian’s face. It might not be full moneyline endorsement, but this line seems off given their strengths of schedule and recent performances.

Edmen Shahbazyan-Dylan Budka Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-165)

The way this middleweight match has been tailored, the winner should get the job done before the final bell. At the moment, it is heavily favored towards the former ranked contender in Shahbazyan, who has already been in there with more established names than “The Mindless Hulk.” However, with five losses in his last seven, things have not been entirely rosy for “The Golden Boy,” as his durability and energy reserves repeatedly failed him en route to disaster. Budka may not be able to exploit a fading Shahbazyan the way Anthony Hernandez or Derek Brunson did, but fatigue makes cowards of us all.

It might seem remarkable that a loss would leave Shahbazyan with a .500 UFC record, but a lot has ridden on offense that he just cannot keep up, to his own detriment. Budka sports much more experience going the distance, so in theory, he should have a better measure of his gas tank. Despite the word “Hulk” in his nickname, Budka is not an overwhelming destructive force that most should avoid like the plague, a la the burgeoning Brunno Ferreira. Instead, he tends to be a bit frantic on the feet until things play out on the ground, and he calms himself down when grappling is involved. Whether by a tricky submission, an onslaught of striking or something more in line with a frontrunner crumbling when too much time passes, this has the makings of a violent one that mandates referee supervision.

DOUBLE PLAY (+113)

Ismael Bonfim (-220)

Gabriel Bonfim (-215)

Some accumulators need to have a gimmick to add stakes or excitement. There should be a reason to bet on two different outcomes in different matches having to both succeed to cash in, and it shouldn’t always be “because they are both going to happen.” In this case, Brazil’s Bonfim brothers are matched on this card with suitable opponents in fights where they have more than reasonable chances of success. While older brother Ismail tends to get foes out of there with sheer horsepower, he finds that scrambles and the risk of giving up his back plays to his disadvantage. Luckily, for him, Nazim Sadykhov is going to be in his face trying to punch a hole in him, and he is a far less defensively sound striker of the two.

The other piece of the puzzle lies in lightweight Gabriel, who is all about using his jits in new and interesting ways. Chokes from all sides can present themselves out of nowhere, making him a threat whether someone is shooting on him for a takedown or already on top of him getting ground-and-pound going. He battles an extremely powerful puncher in Kalinn Williams, who sometimes overswings when looking for the perfect blow. It has faired well for him against less fluid strikers, but everything will hinge on Williams keeping the fight standing. If he does not, he is entering the world of Bonfim.

DOUBLE PLAY (-148)

Jared Gordon (-320)

Julia Avila-Jacqueline Cavalcanti Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-360)

Confidence from this rare second accumulator does not stem from an overarching belief in the skills of Gordon or that he even has luck on his side. The New Yorker known as “Flash” has not had the best of luck of late, with two close decisions against Paddy Pimblett and Nasrat Haqparast that could have easily gone his way. No one can take away his destruction of Mark O. Madsen, which counts as his last victory. Instead, it is all about newcomer Mashrabjon Ruziboev, younger brother of recent UFC pickup Nursulton Ruziboev. While the latter has dwelled on the outer circuits, feasting on anyone they could give him, little brother has not been quite as assertive in his approach. It has been more about mitigating risk, which leads to five or six fights against an adversary with a record well below .500. Gordon is not likely the type who will walk face-first into a punch from the neophyte and instead is a perfect trap fight that will let Ruziboev and his flashy record know there is more that needs to be done.

In order to find a dance partner for Gordon’s moneyline—a play of -320 by itself is a bit out of the Prime Picks general price range, although some exclusions may present themselves if, for example, the favorite should be more like -800 and that there is a gap. Otherwise, we bring it closer to sellable territory by linking it with another result on the menu that is expected to take place even though it has no connection to the first. In the case of the bantamweight card opener, it is one that should take some time to get going. On the upper level of the sport, Cavalcanti’s stoppages have vanished, as has her perceived level of dominance. On the other side of the cage will be the returning Avila, who some did not think would fight again at all. Even with Avila on the wrong end of the age equation, she takes on a challenge in Cavalcanti who takes her time and may be even too methodical at this stage in her game. If this goes late and Gordon gets his hand raised, cash this ticket.