Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 40 ‘Santos vs. Hill’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship machine will keep grinding on Saturday in Las Vegas when it slides back to the UFC Apex for the last time before a much-needed break in a few weeks. This event will serve as the finale for “The Ultimate Fighter 30” but only features four competitors from the season, and neither final presents a line worth seeking. Instead, the UFC on ESPN 40 edition of Prime Picks will focus on the main event as a factor of time in the cage, a sure-fire welterweight firefight, countrywoman-on-countrywoman violence at 125 pounds and an underdog pick one can try to make with a smile.

Jamahal Hill-Thiago Santos Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-155)

Like heavyweight great Andrei Arlovski, Santos has undergone several changes over the years, putting his career in phases. While not quite as visually noteworthy, like a change in hair style, Santos has seen his ups and downs after moving divisions and facing certain foes. The shift up to 205 pounds in 2018 proved fruitful, as “Marreta” laid waste to three men in a row before facing Jon Jones, and that began the second and far different chapter to his light heavyweight run. No longer willing to simply sprint ahead clutching an imagined hammer into battle, Santos has become far more hesitant to engage, which has made his last several matchups dreadful to watch. This has also kept him out of danger, fighting smart enough to not take serious damage, which makes this particular line of the over worth seeking.

Not every book maintains this option at the moment, and some may have to settle for the over 2.5 rounds alternative at +127, which may be a little riskier. In addition to having to fight one more round, the opportunity presents itself for the fast-attacking Hill to fade and possibly fall into strikes he would have otherwise avoided. While his level of opposition has been near the pinnacle of his division, Santos has not scored a knockout in over two years. Hill has a legitimate claim to not ever being knocked out, either, with the one defeat on his ledger possibly getting chalked up to errors in officiating. “Sweet Dreams” would undoubtedly like to claim Santos’ scalp and present himself as an immediate contender at 205 pounds, but the Brazilian does not get clipped or put down at this weight class.

If a fighter breaks up this play, it will likely be Hill, should he catch Santos lax with an oncoming bombardment of blows. Since making it to the major stage when he fought on Dana White's Contender Series in 2019, Hill has notched five wins, and only two have come quicker than the 7:30 mark. His recent inclination to “brawl first, asks question later” is one that Santos would have happily obliged a few years ago, but the Brazilian appears far more cognizant of the damage he was taking and competes more cerebrally while being not as willing to pull the trigger. If Hill can goad his foe into reckless striking exchanges, he should have the speed advantage to do some damage, but Santos may not bite. Barring a first-round attack where Hill starts as if he were shot out of a cannon, this fight should persist at least beyond the midpoint of the second round. Anything after that is immaterial from this betting perspective.

Vicente Luque (-160)

It appeared that Luque had finally put it together to shift from the top of the action-fighter pack to a top contender, only for Belal Muhammad to shut it all down across five rounds in April. Luque never seemed to be able to switch out of first gear, having some success but struggling with Muhammad’s pressure and takedowns. Thankfully for Luque, the matchmakers have not given him another grapple-first opponent, as Geoff Neal will more than happily engage on the feet. While Neal fights long with solid, technical boxing, Luque can crash forward with little interest in defense. Neal can serve as a solid counterstriker, as seen by his easily handling Mike Perry in 2019, but Luque’s chin and wherewithal make him a threat worthy of betting consideration.

“The Silent Assassin” keeps a shockingly effective safety valve at his disposal should he himself get hurt in a fight. His four-minute banger with Tyron Woodley proved that even after absorbing the flushest right hand from Woodley, he can set something up with his grappling. The owner of the most brabo chokes in UFC history can use his long arms—Luque will come into this fight with a slight reach advantage—to snatch hold of the neck and threaten in a way not expected by his adversaries. To win, Neal will need to emulate the success of Stephen Thompson’s strategy when facing Luque by staying at the end of his punches and never getting trapped against a corner. Luque would like nothing more than to surge forward and clobber his opponent with punches, and Neal’s footwork and head movement will be essential to staying upright. With more avenues to victory at his disposal than Neal’s striking, Luque as a moderate favorite is undoubtedly worth a shot.

Ariane Lipski (-155)

Some fighters can never shake the public perception of a crushing loss, and that undoubtedly goes for Priscila Cachoeira’s UFC debut against Valentina Shevchenko. Even as Cachoeira is officially one win away from a UFC record of .500, that pillar-to-post beatdown is one that may never be forgotten. Coupled with her early “Robbery of the Year” contender decision win with Ji Yeon Kim in February, Cachoeira is not coming in with a great deal of momentum behind her. Even though Lipski won her last fight and is making her first appearance of the year, her drubbing of Mandy Bohm made those remember why she is she nicknamed “Queen of Violence.” Cachoeira will meet Lipski in the middle and throw down, and this will work to the disadvantage of “Zombie Girl.”

In the ranks of KSW, Lipski possessed fight-changing power and the ability to snare a submission when her adversary was hurt. Her sheer strength could turn the tide in her favor, or she could simply bend back a knee at a frightening angle to make Luana Carolina cry uncle. With her confidence appearing to be back and measuring up about the same size as Cachoeira, she will not be pushed around by a larger woman as others have. For Cachoeira to get it done, she will need to land with higher volume, beating her opponent to the punch and even slugging it out when she puts Lipski on her back foot. Two 125-pound purveyors of violence will clash here, and unless Lipski gets stung in the early going and becomes gun-shy, she can take it to Cachoeira and get the job done.

Sam Alvey (+325)

Believe it or not, Alvey—who has not won a fight in his last eight attempts—is not the largest underdog of the night. That honor goes to Erick Gonzalez, who sits around +600 ahead of his pairing with Terrance McKinney. A few reasons can be given for why Alvey is not at comical plus odds, including the unknowns of Michal Oleksiejczuk’s weight cut and the success “Smile’n Sam” had against Brendan Allen before getting clocked. It might not be a full-throated endorsement and something more akin to a flier, but the underdog in Alvey does actually hold a possible path to victory. A win would end his contract and likely send him off to a possible retirement on a high note, putting a smile on Alvey one last time.

Historically, Poland’s Oleksiejczuk performs best as a bully and a frontrunner, charging aggressively with his fists flying in hopes of catching his opponent. That has worked out well for him three times in the UFC to date, with knockouts in under four minutes against Gian Villante, Shamil Gamzatov and Gadzhimurad Antigulov; he dropped the latter a whopping three times in less then 45 seconds. Despite all of Alvey’s recent shortcomings, he is not the kind of fighter to succumb to a quick blitz. Keeping his range with a long straight left hand and a check right hook, Alvey can play on the outside as long as he does not get cornered and smoked. He might ultimately get tagged, as Alvey can have the bad habit of standing straight up with his chin in the air, but Oleksiejczuk does not have the chops on the ground to snag a neck or exploit his counterpart’s weakness on the mat. If Oleksiejczuk cannot find a finish in the first round, Alvey can work his way back into the fight, doing so by tiring the Pole out in the latter’s first cut to 185 pounds and picking his shots from distance. If one firmly disagrees, Oleksiejczuk by knockout is an even -110.