Sherdog’s 2024 Upset of the Year

“That’s why they play the game” is a cliché we often hear in the wake of a big upset, and we should count ourselves lucky every time we do.

When you get down to it, upsets are a big part of the reason we watch sports, or perhaps it would be more accurate to say that the possibility of the upset is a big part of the reason. If the favorite went out and won every time, or even 99% of the time, much of the intrigue, suspense and emotion that keeps fans on the edge of their seats would be lost, to say nothing of what it would do to the multi-billion-dollar gambling industry that hovers around virtually every form of athletic competition in the world.

Fortunately, MMA does not need to worry about falling into that kind of drab predictability anytime soon. As an individual sport with diverse paths to victory, a minimal but constantly evolving ruleset and frankly inconsistent judging and officiating, mixed martial arts is one of the most upset-prone of all sports. Major sports books, whose lines are driven by incoming bets, get the winner on the right side of the moneyline only about two-thirds of the time, and even elite prognosticators struggle to pick winners straight up at a 75% clip over an extended period.

So, in a sport where literally a third of all fights end in an upset, how do we determine the “Upset of the Year?” Sheer numerical fireworks can play a part, as in the case of Roxanne Modafferi’s win over Maycee Barber, which won this category in 2020, as “The Happy Warrior” exited the cage happy indeed after entering as a +700 underdog, one of the biggest betting upsets in Ultimate Fighting Championship history.

At other times, the shock and surprise come not from the moneyline but the optics and context. Consider the case of Holly Holm’s shocking knockout of Ronda Rousey, which topped the Sherdog poll in 2015. We would go on to learn that Holm was simply the superior fighter and a stylistic nightmare for the “Rowdy” judoka, but at a time that the UFC was falling over itself to proclaim Rousey a generational talent and she was blossoming into arguably the sport’s biggest star, it truly was the “head kick heard ‘round the world.”

This year offered plenty of examples of mixed martial artists upending our expectations—and ruining our “investments”—and several fights garnered votes from the Sherdog panel in this category. Notably, two of them featured grizzled veterans prevailing over blue-chip prospects, as matchups that had clearly been booked as steppingstones for the youngsters instead turned into stumbling blocks: Anthony Smith’s lightning-quick destruction of Vitor Petrino at UFC 301 and Neil Magny ruining Mike Malott’s triumphant Canadian return at UFC 297. However, when it came down to the signature upset of 2024, one candidate won in a landslide.

UFC Macau, also known as UFC Fight Night 248, took place on Nov. 23 and featured a card designed to pique the interest of the Chinese fanbase, from Maheshate Hayisaer in the curtain-jerker all the way to headliner Petr Yan, whose father is of Chinese descent. (You didn’t think Yan was a Russian surname, did you?) The UFC wisely booked nearly all the Chinese fighters against foreigners and in just about every case, the native fighter was favored to win. The card was a designated crowd-pleaser, in other words, and no matchup seemed more likely to delight the locals—or less likely to disappoint them, at least—than the main card flyweight bout between Cong Wang and Gabriella Fernandes.

It is worth taking a moment here to examine the background and setting. While it is hardly a surprise when crowds pull for native fighters against foreigners, that dynamic is amplified in the case of someone like Wang, a former wushu sanda world champion. Chinese pride in its signature martial art is so deep and powerful that it arguably stunted the growth of mixed martial arts in that country; well into the 2010s, many Chinese promotions consisted of low-level foreign fighters being brought in to get slaughtered by sanda practitioners, with the goal being to prove the superiority of kung fu rather than the greatness of any individual fighter.

Heading into UFC Fight Night 248, Wang was 6-0 in mixed martial arts, and her UFC debut in August had seen her obliterate Victoria Leonardo in just 62 seconds, earning her a “Performance of the Night” bonus check and guaranteeing her prime placement on the Macau card. Hoping to ensure a breakout moment for the striking star, the UFC matched her against Fernandes, a skilled but struggling fighter who was 1-2 in the promotion and could easily have been 0-3 if not for a razor-thin split decision win over Carli Judice in June. Considering Fernandes’ difficulty dictating range and her tendency to get into wild swinging matches, the stage appeared to be set for another highlight-reel knockout for Wang, and she entered the cage as a -1300 favorite, one of the widest lines of the year in any top-level show.

For the first five minutes, it appeared we might get just such a moment. Wang showed off the diversity and dexterity of her kickboxing, launching head kicks, question mark kicks and a variety of body punches against Fernandes, using the Brazilian’s own aggression and forward motion against her, and mostly denying Fernandes the clinch positions that represented the best chance for a takedown. When the horn sounded to end Round 1, Fernandes had already survived longer than Wang’s last two opponents combined, but it felt as though the killshot might come at any moment.

As it turns out, that feeling was correct, but misplaced. Halfway through the round, Wang walked right into a head kick. She went down, as did Fernandes, who slipped on the follow-through. “Gabi” popped right back up, however, and was all over Wang, laying into her with wild punches as she tried to stand. Wang went down again, and Fernandes was on her in a flash, taking her back and sinking in both hooks. From there, the massive upset was not long in coming. Fernandes applied a rear-naked choke, flattened Wang out and squeezed. Referee Marc Goddard saw the wushu sanda champ lose consciousness and intervened to save her at 3 minutes, 49 seconds of Round 2. The Macau arena was dead silent as Fernandes sprang up and let out a torrent of pent-up emotion—as any bettors wise enough to put down money on her at +725 no doubt did the same. Sherdog’s “Upset of the Year” for 2024 was in the books.